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- Shopping for Toxic Assets at the Zombie Bank: Final Chapter of the Credit Crunch?
- Timothy Geithner's new plan is to raise $2.5 trillion or so from the private sector to co-invest with him buying Toxic Assets. That sounds risky; but perhaps the flight to safety is over-priced these days? If so then "safety" is "risky". But there are a few things I don't...
- External links 2009-02-18
- The Law of One: How Shadow Banks Hijacked the Fed
- The way it's supposed to work is that the way the Fed "controls" the US economy is mainly by adjusting short-term interest rates; lower rates and more money sloshes around the system and GDP goes up, but that can be inflationary, so the Fed keeps a wary eye on that,...
- External links 2009-08-19
- SEC Bypasses the FASB, BIS, Congress and the Treasury to Approve International Valuation Standards
- Tyler Durden can always be counted on to be first off the block with a juicy bit of news, so it was no surprise that he broke the story about the SEC's recent effort to re-start the job that they apparently abandoned some-time in mid 2000, namely protecting investors...
- External links 2009-08-21
- Liar Loans Not the Problem
- Years ago I got a project building a credit scoring system for a bank that did auto loans in Dubai. It was a lot of fun, I got hold of tons of data, did a multivariate regression analysis, and the result was absolutely useless. About the...
- External links 2009-08-23
- Six Million Home Foreclosures: Are FDIC Insured Banks the Next Time Bomb? (Part 1)
- Over a year ago Hank Paulson declared "The US Banking System Is A Safe and Sound One", the market's reaction to that piece of news was to short Fannie FNM and Freddie FRE into oblivion. A key issue there was holdings of mortgaged backed securities, specifically RMBS; valuations of those...
- External links 2009-09-01
- Six Million Home Foreclosures: Are FDIC Insured Banks the Next Time Bomb? (Part 2)
- << Part 1 How Many More to Come? The issue is whether slowing down foreclosures is simply delaying the inevitable, or really helping to mitigate the long-term damage. by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-09-01
- How Much of China's Export Industry Is Owned by U.S. Corporations?
- I don't know much about China but I know about free zones. From 1990 to 1995 my partner and I wrote the "playbook" to entice foreign companies into the Jebel Ali Free Zone in Dubai. During that period the number of companies went from...
- External links 2009-09-04
- Dow: Where to Next?
- Round Numbers I'm calling the intra-day high on the Dow of 9,938 on 23rd September as a "hit". That's within 1% of where my model in May said it would reach without any mishap. by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-10-05
- Ratings Agencies: Regulators Still Missing the Point
- A rating is like a quality control stamp; it's part of a system of quality control, so that people who buy bonds and regulators who assess capital adequacy and solvency of publicly accountable institutions can be reasonably sure they are good quality. What went wrong...
- External links 2009-10-06
- BubbleOmics: Oil's Fair Price Won't Go Down
- A bubble is when prices go unnaturally high for a while and then they pop; what happens next is predictable. The recent dynamics of the oil price has followed a classic pattern: by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-10-14
- Dow: The Higher It Gets the Harder It Will Fall
- You won’t find this approach to figuring the direction of the Dow anywhere else. All I want to say about it is it seems to work. This is the analysis used in May to predict that the Dow would reach 10,000 without a major reversal....
- External links 2009-10-21
- The Cheap Dollar: Great News for Everyone Else
- I’d just like to send a special word of thanks to Chairman Bernanke on behalf of all the parts of the world that operate on dollars, or where the currency is explicitly or implicitly linked to the dollar. Thank you…your actions are really helping to stimulate the economy (outside of...
- External links 2009-10-21
- S&P Case-Shiller Index: Rolling Over?
- In May the S&P Case-Shiller Index started to tick upwards, plenty of people thought that was not going to last, yet it has edged upwards for three months now. by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-10-28
- After Securitization: Who Owns America Now?
- Everyone is familiar with the chart of US debt that goes up to about 350% of GDP in 2008. Below is the same slide looked at another way [1]: by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-11-03
- Lunatic Bubble Warning for U.S. Treasuries
- Edward Harrison wrote a great piece about the article by Frederic Mishkin “Not all bubbles present a risk to the economy." by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-11-12
- Bubble Spotting Isn't Hard, But Whose Job Is It?
- There is no dispute about what happened in USA over the past few years: There was a Tech Bubble – It popped that caused economic damage. There was a Housing Bubble – It popped (that caused...
- External links 2009-11-15
- The Teddy Bears' Picnic: Predicting a Market Crash That May Not Come
- Five months later and the S&P went up from 666 to pierce 1,000 and hardly a day passes without another theory for why it will dive catastrophically to 450. by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-08-07
- U.S. Housing: One Dead Cat Bounce, Two Sucker Rallies to Go?
- The big excitement this month was the tiny up-tick in the May S&P Case-Shiller Index. "Seasonally adjusted" the number was still down on April, but then it's not clear what's "seasonal" about a house-price crash. Right now the bulk of the market is driven by foreclosure sales and there is...
- External links 2009-08-02
- Is the U.S. Style Securitization Model Dead?
- In March 2006 Nomura published a manual called "MBS Basics"; it started off: by Andrew Butter
- External links 2009-06-16
- International Valuation Standards: The Only Viable Alternative to Mark-to-Market
- Put your hand in your pocket, and the money you find is exactly that, you know exactly what it's worth, that's easy. But a promise from someone that he will pay you in the future? Who knows for sure what that's worth today, or what that promise might be worth...
- External links 2009-03-17
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