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- Whole Foods Market: Recession Puts a Damper on Growth Strategy
- Andy Kern submits: Whole Foods Market, Inc. WFMI began 2009 trading at $9.44/share. At $24.20, the stock has climbed more than 160% in the first seven months of the year. With any gain as large as this, an important question is whether the gain is justified or the...
- External links 2009-08-05
- Estee Lauder: Declining Sales Lowers RBP Probability
- Andy Kern submits: Estee Lauder EL is a personal products company particularly prone to declines in discretionary spending. Its sales over the previous twelve months have served as strong evidence of this. This fact, coupled with strong stock price performance, gives the company only a 37% probability of...
- External links 2009-09-07
- Coke vs. Pepsi: An RBP Perspective
- Andy Kern submits: I’ve long argued that one of the best applications of RBP Probability is in the comparison of alternative or substitute investments. For example, when making a decision on a single stock, it is helpful to compare that stock’s RBP Probability with the median RBP Probability...
- External links 2009-09-13
- RBP Probability Sensitivity Analysis: Changes in Stock Price
- Andy Kern submits: RBP Probability is the implied probability of sustaining performance. In his 2008 white paper, Professor Bjorn Jorgenson of Columbia Business School tested the sensitivity of RBP Probability to some important variables. First, he confirmed the intuition: RBP Probability declines as a) stock prices rise, b)...
- External links 2009-09-27
- With Declining Store Growth, Can Walgreens Meet Its Required Business Performance?
- Andy Kern submits: Walgreens WAG drugstores have become as ubiquitous as Super Wal-Marts WMT throughout most of the United States. Their familiar neighborhood corner locations serve more than five million customers every day, and produced $63 billion in revenue in the fiscal year that ended this past August....
- External links 2009-11-08
- Hershey Benefits from Trade-Down, But Sets the 'Bar' High for Future Growth
- Andy Kern submits: In this recession, investors seem to be looking for “comfort stocks.” The Hershey Company HSY is one stock that could benefit from consumers focusing on the simple pleasures. For the twelve months that ended in March, Hershey reported sales growth of 5.1%, quarterly sales...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Starbucks's Uphill Battle
- Andy Kern submits: 2009 looks to be another difficult one for Starbucks SBUX. Last year, in the face of increased input costs and declining sales, the company took the drastic step of not only slowing its torrid growth in stores, but actually closing some of the underperforming and...
- External links 2009-03-30
- Wal-Mart's Required Business Performance Deceptively Low?
- Andy Kern submits: Currently the median Required Business Performance (RBP) probability of the 750 stocks in the Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Index is around 75%. This is very high, but significantly lower than it was several months ago. It means, simply, that the typical large cap company has...
- External links 2009-05-18
- Can Kraft Foods Meet Its Required Business Performance in a Weak Economy?
- Andy Kern submits: Kraft Foods has held up nicely during the crisis. It sports a hefty dividend yield and is now a Dow component. It is possible, though obviously not certain, that these factors are keeping the price of the stock too high. At its current price, Kraft...
- External links 2009-06-12
Additional Resources
- Amazon: Continued Growth and High RBP Probability
- Andy Kern submits: Amazon.Com AMZN continues to dominate the online retail space and much of retail in general. Most importantly, its stock price implies a level of business performance that should be easy for the company to produce. (See AMZN’s RBP Snapshot as of October 7) The...
- External links 2009-10-09
- Can Amazon Produce 19.2% Growth over the Next 12-Month Period?
- Andy Kern submits: Amazon.Com AMZN stock has been en fuego since releasing its third quarter earnings on October 22. Before the announcement, the company’s stock price implied 12.6% sales growth. Then the company reported that in the third quarter it produced 27.8% year-over-year sales growth, easily surpassing this...
- External links 2009-11-10
- Why I Think eBay Is Overpriced
- Andy Kern submits: After its runup on last week’s earnings announcement, I think eBay EBAY stock is overpriced. But then again, it was overpriced before the runup too. Please let me explain. I do not think eBay is a bad company. Much the opposite, in fact. After...
- External links 2009-08-02
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