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- Why Chapter 11 Makes the Most Sense for the Big 3
- Andy Kern submits: With so much talk, debate and controversy over the idea of “bailing out” the Big 3 automakers, I find it amazing that so little of this discussion has been on the topic of bankruptcy. The media, congress and the Big 3 CEOs seem to accept...
- External links 2008-12-16
- Why I Think eBay Is Overpriced
- Andy Kern submits: After its runup on last week’s earnings announcement, I think eBay EBAY stock is overpriced. But then again, it was overpriced before the runup too. Please let me explain. I do not think eBay is a bad company. Much the opposite, in fact. After...
- External links 2009-08-02
- Whole Foods Market: Recession Puts a Damper on Growth Strategy
- Andy Kern submits: Whole Foods Market, Inc. WFMI began 2009 trading at $9.44/share. At $24.20, the stock has climbed more than 160% in the first seven months of the year. With any gain as large as this, an important question is whether the gain is justified or the...
- External links 2009-08-05
- What Does RBP Probability Tell Us?
- Andy Kern submits: RBP Probability tells us the likelihood, based on historical rates of sales growth, that a company will be able to generate sufficient sales to justify the current price of its stock. So how do we use this? The best way is to use it...
- External links 2009-08-09
- Cash for Clunkers: 100% Insanity
- Andy Kern submits: To me, this is proof the mainstream media has absolutely no clue about economic reality. CNN proudly boasts that Cash For Clunkers program is “Real Stimulus,” claiming that “the boost to auto sales caused by the government trade-in program should lead to increased production from...
- External links 2009-08-09
- Express Scripts: Betting on Healthcare Reform
- Andy Kern submits: Express Scripts ESRX seems to bucking the trend today, a day in which the market is off 2%. Perhaps this is due to Obama’s announcement that the public plan need not be a part of his health care overhaul. If this happens, then Express Scripts...
- External links 2009-08-17
- Estee Lauder: Declining Sales Lowers RBP Probability
- Andy Kern submits: Estee Lauder EL is a personal products company particularly prone to declines in discretionary spending. Its sales over the previous twelve months have served as strong evidence of this. This fact, coupled with strong stock price performance, gives the company only a 37% probability of...
- External links 2009-09-07
- Coke vs. Pepsi: An RBP Perspective
- Andy Kern submits: I’ve long argued that one of the best applications of RBP Probability is in the comparison of alternative or substitute investments. For example, when making a decision on a single stock, it is helpful to compare that stock’s RBP Probability with the median RBP Probability...
- External links 2009-09-13
- RBP Probability Sensitivity Analysis: Changes in Stock Price
- Andy Kern submits: RBP Probability is the implied probability of sustaining performance. In his 2008 white paper, Professor Bjorn Jorgenson of Columbia Business School tested the sensitivity of RBP Probability to some important variables. First, he confirmed the intuition: RBP Probability declines as a) stock prices rise, b)...
- External links 2009-09-27
- Amazon: Continued Growth and High RBP Probability
- Andy Kern submits: Amazon.Com AMZN continues to dominate the online retail space and much of retail in general. Most importantly, its stock price implies a level of business performance that should be easy for the company to produce. (See AMZN’s RBP Snapshot as of October 7) The...
- External links 2009-10-09
- Is Verizon More Likely to Meet Its RBP than AT&T?
- Andy Kern submits: The question I am posing is whether Verizon Communications VZ can add 5.4 million new wireless subscribers and whether its likelihood of doing so is greater or lower that of than AT&T’s T adding 4.7 million new wireless subscribers. Verizon looks like a great...
- External links 2009-10-29
- With Declining Store Growth, Can Walgreens Meet Its Required Business Performance?
- Andy Kern submits: Walgreens WAG drugstores have become as ubiquitous as Super Wal-Marts WMT throughout most of the United States. Their familiar neighborhood corner locations serve more than five million customers every day, and produced $63 billion in revenue in the fiscal year that ended this past August....
- External links 2009-11-08
- Can Amazon Produce 19.2% Growth over the Next 12-Month Period?
- Andy Kern submits: Amazon.Com AMZN stock has been en fuego since releasing its third quarter earnings on October 22. Before the announcement, the company’s stock price implied 12.6% sales growth. Then the company reported that in the third quarter it produced 27.8% year-over-year sales growth, easily surpassing this...
- External links 2009-11-10
- Texas Instruments? Steep Uphill Battle
- Andy Kern submits: From the looks of its Required Business Performance and its historical ability to produce similar levels of revenue, it would seem Texas Instruments TXN is all but certain to fail to produce the level of performance its stock price currently implies. With its stock at...
- External links 2009-11-16
- Hershey Benefits from Trade-Down, But Sets the 'Bar' High for Future Growth
- Andy Kern submits: In this recession, investors seem to be looking for “comfort stocks.” The Hershey Company HSY is one stock that could benefit from consumers focusing on the simple pleasures. For the twelve months that ended in March, Hershey reported sales growth of 5.1%, quarterly sales...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Verizon: Solid Performance Unrewarded By Chaotic Market
- Andy Kern submits: Verizon Communications VZ looks like a great buy right now. The company has weathered the crisis very well, is adding new subscribers faster than its peers and sports a nearly 6% dividend yield. More importantly, however, the company should have little trouble delivering results sufficient...
- External links 2009-06-26
- At What Point Does Berkshire Get 'Stupid Cheap'?
- Andy Kern submits: I own a lot of Berkshire (BRK.A) stock. I don’t like seeing it go down because I don’t have a lot of liquidity at the moment, otherwise I would welcome the buying opportunity. But this begs the question, is this indeed a buying opportunity? Or...
- External links 2009-02-22
- Can Apple Maintain Sales in the Current Economic Climate?
- Andy Kern submits: Apple AAPL is a popular company to discuss because its products are innovative, fun and the company makes a lot of money selling them. More importantly, though, Apple is a story stock with an iconic leader. This makes it an important company to watch from...
- External links 2009-02-23
- A Dual-Class Arbitrage in Berkshire Stock?
- Andy Kern submits: Hat tip to Ray for pointing this out to me. Last week, [[BRK.B]] was trading at a level significantly lower than 1/30 of [[BRK.A]]. In fact the spread represented 7% of the value of BRK.B. This was a decent arbitrage opportunity, as the two...
- External links 2009-03-01
- An RBP Case for Buying Google
- Andy Kern submits: A lot of investors are talking about Google GOOG these days, because it certainly seems cheap now. At $350/share, it is 50% off its high in December 2007. That decline matches the performance of the market. But Google is in a different...
- External links 2009-03-26
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