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- Slope of the Yield Curve and Its Effect on Growth
- Benign Brodwicz submits: With all the hoopla about rising Treasury yields, it is worth remembering that the slope of the yield curve has been a pretty good predictor of future real growth. Click on graph for larger image. by Benign Brodwicz
- External links 2009-05-30
- Quantitative Easing and Fiscal Stimulus Are Both Fool's Games
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Via: Daily Finance It is still the pathetic dream of neo-Keynesians and neo-conservatives alike that inflation is going to accomplish the debt jubilee that they think is going to “reflate” our deflationary economies. by Benign Brodwicz
- External links 2009-08-23
- Economic Change: Not from this Administration
- Benign Brodwicz submits: For me the litmus test of whether Bernanke will ultimately fail and lead the country into deeper depression—or whether he will reform the financial system—begins with this: now that the immediate crisis is averted, over coming months does he weed out the bad debts and...
- External links 2009-08-27
- The Next Bubble at the End of the Age
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Before commenting on the stock market, which everyone cares about, I must indulge a small obsession with the way that mainstream economists are able to ignore relevant research in psychology even when they are doing inherently psychological work themselves, and even when the relevant work in...
- External links 2009-09-02
- Animal Spirits Are Still on Track to Rise
- Benign Brodwicz submits: The 0.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is not enough to throw rising “animal spirits” or confidence off track. Americans are still depressed by an unemployment rate higher than adaptation level but they are getting used to it. Given the forecasted path...
- External links 2009-09-06
- U.S. Economy Is Stabilizing
- Benign Brodwicz submits: It is with a bit of trepidation that I present results of a “recession” forecasting model, using NBER-defined recession, in the current environment, with the tremendous debt overhang and the bite it is taking out of consumer purchasing power, not to mention the increased saving rate...
- External links 2009-09-06
- Consumption Stabilizing: Expect an L-Shaped Recovery
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Data monthly to July. With Total Capacity Utilization at 69 percent and still very high levels of uncertainty in the financial markets, it is difficult to see investment spending adding much of a kicker to aggregate demand. The political will for...
- External links 2009-09-11
- Real Consumption Will Rise, But Only Briefly
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Tim Duy offers some dyspeptic comments on confidence and consumption similar to my own a few days ago. However, he and the rest of mainstream economics continue to ignore research however obscure indicating the adaptation level theoretic foundations of confidence determination reference. Duy’s nice...
- External links 2009-09-15
- Industrial Production Is Stuck in the Last Century
- Benign Brodwicz submits: While industrial production has turned up, and by NBER standards the recession may be over (they’ll decide well after the fact), industrial production will probably remain depressed for several years. Given the debt drag on the economy, the collapse of consumption and investment, industrial production...
- External links 2009-09-17
- 'Animal Spirits' Are Still Poised to Rise
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Not because the fundamentals of the economy are better, but because people are becoming accustomed to the higher unemployment rates rising adaptation level, some degree of confidence is returning to American consumers, although they are still in technically “depressed” territory because the current unemployment rate at...
- External links 2009-10-06
- More Misdirection from the Fed
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Reading the summaries of the Treasury-blogger love-fest see interfluidity brings to mind some recent stuff I’ve read about magic, that it’s all about misdirection. Get the people looking in the wrong places and you can fool them every time. The cause of...
- External links 2009-11-06
- Expect the Economic Crisis to Continue
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Data to October. Unemployment is assumed to climb to 11.1 percent in a year and then decline. I still expect “animal spirits” to climb up to about zero in 2012. The last couple of times they rose to zero from depressed...
- External links 2009-11-10
- The Collapse of Effective Demand
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Aggregate Demand = Consumption + Investment + Government + Net Exports I’ve included all series in nominal dollar terms because that’s what matters in the end, whether the dollars are flowing or not. All series are relative to an index...
- External links 2009-11-11
- Stock Market Still Riding a Thermal Wave
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Birds can stay aloft for hours riding thermals or updrafts of warm air. I look at the human responses to adaptation level effects in much the same way. When things are better than what we have in recent memory, we feel good, relatively speaking....
- External links 2009-11-14
- Effective Demand Is a Distributional Problem
- Benign Brodwicz submits: See: The worst is yet to come I agree with Nouriel Roubini that the worst is yet to come, but even Roubini falls prey to the figment that a fiscal stimulus involving “shovel-ready” infrastructure spending “creates jobs”: by Benign Brodwicz
- External links 2009-11-17
- How Will a Domestic Investment Boom Get Started?
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Via: Chart of the Day This is apparently month-end data to July, as the producers say the ratio has dropped to 129 from a high of 144. It would take almost a 50 percent pull-back with earnings constant just to get back into the...
- External links 2009-08-21
- Market Stress Tests the Animal Spirits
- Benign Brodwicz submits: With the coming wave of foreclosures (see Mish and T2 under Worthwhile Reading on left) and the worldwide market plunge this morning, I thought it would be worth considering what kind of unemployment increase it would take to drive confidence down. More than is likely...
- External links 2009-08-17
- Some Thoughts on the New Realities
- Benign Brodwicz submits: The demand for short-term Treasuries spikes as doubts grow about Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s ability to contain inflation and to prevent depreciation of the dollar on the foreign exchange markets: by Benign Brodwicz
- External links 2009-06-10
- The Next Big Dollar Inflation Can Still Be Avoided
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Let’s define an “inflation” as a long-term, sustained run-up of the price level. Let’s call a short-term run-up in the cost of a commodity or other good a “supply shock.” Milton Friedman famously wrote that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary...
- External links 2009-06-11
- Manufacturing Is Up - It's Manufacturing Jobs That Are Dead
- Benign Brodwicz submits: Industrial Production is down again: Capacity Utilization hits a record low since the series began: by Benign Brodwicz
- External links 2009-06-17
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