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- Strategists Follow the Market Higher
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: The first chart below shows the consensus recommended equity allocation from Wall Street strategists going back to 1997. As shown, strategists completely missed the turn in equities in early 2000, as they increased their recommended stock allocation all the way into mid-2001...
- External links 2009-08-19
- Another Day, Another Crash
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: Out of nowhere, we had another stock market crash today, as the S&P 500 fell 9.06% for its biggest decline of the current bear market. As shown in the table below, the index had its 8th worst decline ever today going back to...
- External links 2008-10-15
- One-Month Treasuries Still Indicate Fear
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: The yield on the One-Month Treasury Note is currently at 0.09%, which is still extremely low by historical standards. This indicates that investors continue to flock to the safest of safe haven assets, and we are by no means out of the woods...
- External links 2008-11-05
- Recommended Stock Allocation Continues To Tick Lower
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: Below we highlight the consensus recommendation for portfolio stock allocation from Wall Street analysts from Bloomberg going back to 1997. Since peaking at 72% back in September 2001, recommended stock allocation has trickled lower and now rests at 58%. As the chart shows,...
- External links 2008-11-06
- Worst Two-Day Decline Since the '87 Crash
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: While the declines we saw in October seemed extreme, one landmark we failed to reach during that period was a two-day decline of 10% or more. Well, we can check that one off the list. With two 5% declines in a row, the S&P...
- External links 2008-11-06
- How Bad Has This Decade Been?
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: When we first discussed the concept of the stock market's lost decade in March, the Dow was well off its October highs but still not officially in bear market territory. It wasn't until July that the bear market was confirmed with a 20% decline from...
- External links 2008-11-11
- Thankfully Bailouts Haven't Been Expanded to Overnight Delivery Companies
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: Traditionally, recessions have been the market's way of pruning the excess 'growth' in certain sectors of the economy, clearing the way for the stronger names to thrive. During the 1990s, technology stocks multiplied like rabbits to the point where the sector made up one...
- External links 2008-11-11
- 50-Day Average Daily S&P 500 Change at 3.26%
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: The average absolute one-day percentage change of the S&P 500 over the last 50 days is now 3.26%. As shown in the chart below, this kind of volatility over such a long period has only occurred a couple of times in the history...
- External links 2008-11-11
- Market Breadth Based on Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day moving averages remains at a paltry 3%. Since early October, the number has drifted between 0% and 5%, meaning nothing but downtrends have been in place for quite some time now. ...
- External links 2008-11-12
- General Motors Downgraded From Overweight to Neutral at JP Morgan
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: Today's downgrade of [[GM]] from Overweight to Neutral at JP Morgan is one that you would expect to see after the close on the Friday before Memorial Day when no one is at work. As shown below, JP Morgan finally downgraded GM to...
- External links 2008-11-13
- Breaking the Back of Buffett
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: With nearly everyone and their brother lately questioning the investment prowess of Warren Buffett, it looks as though the shorts have finally broken the back of Berkshire Hathaway stock BRKa. After riding out most of the credit crisis and actually benefiting from it...
- External links 2008-11-13
- Presidential Election Day Returns
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: Given the year of extremes that we have had so far in 2008, it's fitting that the Dow's performance today is on pace to be the best ever one-day return on a Presidential election day. Since US equity markets began opening on Presidential election days (1984), the...
- External links 2008-11-04
- Ping Pong Action
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: We recently ran our decile analysis on stock performance since Monday's close based on stock performance on Monday. To do this, we broke the Russell 1,000 into 10 groups of 100 stocks based on how each stock performed on Monday when the market...
- External links 2008-10-16
- Back to Where We Were 25 Hours Ago
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: With a 9% intraday positive reversal off the lows, one would think there would be a little more excitement in the market. However, when that reversal only takes us to where we were an hour before yesterday's close, it's understandable why investors aren't...
- External links 2008-10-16
- Third Quarter Earnings Season: 20% Finished
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: As of last Friday, about 20% of S&P 500 companies had released third quarter earnings reports. Below we provide a brief summary of how various sectors have performed versus expectations. As shown, Financials and Consumer Staples are the furthest along in terms of...
- External links 2008-10-20
- Just a 4.5% Move
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: It's not too often that a 4% move in the S&P 500 is considered a 'quiet day.' Come to think of it, up until this year, it wasn't too often that we got a 4% move, period. However, today's intraday range of 4.41%...
- External links 2008-10-20
- The Best Have Been the Worst
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: We recently calculated the performance of stocks since the S&P 500 made a short-term bottom on October 10th based on how they performed from the 9/19 peak to 10/10. As shown below, the decile (50 stocks in each decile) of stocks that held up the...
- External links 2008-10-21
- The Worst Year Ever: S&P 500's Worst Declines
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: With a 38.9% decline year to date, 2008 is shaping up to be the S&P 500's worst year ever. At this point in the year, the next closest year in terms of declines are 1931 and 1937. In both of these years, the S&P 500...
- External links 2008-10-23
- International Long-Term Government Bond Yields
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: With all the concerns over the health of the global financial system, we were somewhat surprised to see that Australia is the only country whose 10-year government bond yield is at its lowest level of the credit crisis. It appears as though the prospect...
- External links 2008-10-27
- The Largest Company in the World... Volkswagen
- Hickey and Walters Bespoke submit: Yes Volkswagen (VLKAY.PK)! As just another example of how crazy things have become in this market, in terms of market capitalization, Volkswagen temporarily surpassed ExxonMobil XOM and became the largest company in the world this morning. The reason for today's move is due to an...
- External links 2008-10-28
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