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- Is the Next Shoe About to Drop?
- Bill Luby submits: There has been a lot of speculation about which corner of the economy is likely to implode next and start to write the next chapter in the current financial crisis. Credit card debt and commercial real estate are two of the most frequently cited potential culprits,...
- External links 2009-04-08
- Eerie Déjà Vu as VIX and SPX Both Jump More than 2.5%
- Bill Luby submits: If you follow me on Twitter, you probably saw my surprise when I asked rhetorically, “When is the last time the VIX was making new intraday highs with the $DJIA up 230?” While I can’t answer that question (though my guess is that...
- External links 2009-06-02
- SPX Daily Returns Since March 6
- Bill Luby submits: Lately it seems as if the market has only two directions: up and sideways. Since the March 6 bottom, that has not been entirely the case, but it hasn’t been too far from the truth. The graphic below is a histogram that reflects...
- External links 2009-06-02
- ETFs, Leverage and Strangles
- Bill Luby submits: I was surprised by the volume of the feedback I received from last week’s Using Options to Control Risk in Leveraged ETFs. Clearly there is a great deal of interest in options and leveraged ETFs. Among the emails I received were several questions...
- External links 2009-06-03
- SPX and the 200 Day Moving Average
- Bill Luby submits: Lately there has been a great deal of talk related to the SPX closing above its 200 day moving average for the first time since the end of 2007. The first question traders should ask themselves is whether this technical artifact has any...
- External links 2009-06-04
- Banks, Tech Need to Rise Together
- Bill Luby submits: One month ago today in The Banks vs. Technology, I mentioned the divergence between technology and financials and noted, “so far the financials XLF have done a better job of leading the market up than technology stocks XLK have done of inspiring the bears.” ...
- External links 2009-06-08
- Stock of the Week Winning Streak Now Up to 13 Weeks
- Bill Luby submits: At the end of May, in VIX and More Stock of the Week Selection Up 343% in 14 Months, I promised to post future Stock of the Week (SOTW) selections here on the site one day after I flagged them in the subscriber newsletter as long...
- External links 2009-06-09
- Nouriel Roubini and the VIX
- Bill Luby submits: Call me crazy, but lately I have been pondering the sudden disappearance of Nouriel Roubini from the media scene. You could probably add the likes of Meredith Whitney and others to the list of media sensations who rose to fame as a result of successful predictions...
- External links 2009-06-11
- Anticipating Some Reversals: Three Ingredients in Play
- Bill Luby submits: At the height of yesterday’s run up to SPX 956, a commenter took me to task for having a bearish bias in the face of a bull stampede. At the time, I was ready to close out most of my short positions, but this decision was...
- External links 2009-06-12
- Stock of the Week Winning Streak Ends at 13 Weeks
- Bill Luby submits: It was a fun ride while it lasted, but the Stock of the Week (SOTW) winning streak finally came to an end last week, after 13 consecutive weekly winning selections. In the end, it was a scant 0.14 weekly decline in LSB Industries LXU that brought...
- External links 2009-06-16
- Observations on the VXX:VXZ Ratio
- Bill Luby submits: Since its launch on January 30th, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN VXX has generated an enthusiastic following, with an average volume of 400,000 shares traded each day. The same claim cannot be made of VXX’s more problematic sibling, the iPath S&P 500 VIX...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Who's Trading the VIX and VXX?
- Bill Luby submits: Several times in the past, I have had some fun with the Trading Patterns feature at optionsXpress, including a February 2008 post, optionsXpress Trading Patterns and the VIX, which examined the securities that optionsXpress customers who traded the VIX were also trading. Given...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Lack of Volume and Breadth Threatens Bull Move
- Bill Luby submits: In the last few weeks, stocks have struggled to add to recent gains, suffering even more from a lack of buying interest than from selling pressure.The chart of the week below is an attempt to use two basic indicators to capture the lack of volume and...
- External links 2009-06-22
- VIX:VXV Ration: Short Sell Signal
- Bill Luby submits: The VIX closed at 26.36 yesterday, down 15.4% from Monday’s close of 31.17 to the lowest closing level since the 25.66 close on September 12, 2008 – the last trading day before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was announced. According to the classic 10...
- External links 2009-06-25
- SPX, VIX and Late-Day Rallies
- Bill Luby submits: Today was an interesting trading day, particularly during the last hour of equity trading. The graphic at the bottom records in Pacific Time the intraday movements in the VIX, which was essentially flat for all but the first hour and the last 22...
- External links 2009-05-29
- Using Options to Control the Risks of Leveraged ETFs
- Bill Luby submits: Several readers noted that options on leveraged ETFs seemed like a recipe for disaster, as if no good could possibly come from piling leverage on top of leverage. While I certainly understand the sentiment, this type of thinking is typical of investors who have little or...
- External links 2009-05-27
- Persistence of Volatility
- Bill Luby submits: I have often thought that Salvador Dali’s The Persistence of Memory, with its famous melting clocks, should be the official painting of all options traders, for if there is anything that distorts time, it is the wild permutations of the positions and mind of an options...
- External links 2009-04-09
- VIX Milestones, Plus a Prediction
- Bill Luby submits: Yesterday was an interesting trading day not matter how you slice it. When all was said and done the SPX had its highest close since February 9th and moved as close as it has been to its 200 day simple moving average (SMA) since September 26th...
- External links 2009-04-16
- VIX ETFs and Options: Still Not Well Understood by Investors
- Bill Luby submits: Partly based on some thinking I laid out last week in Some VIX Milestones…and a Prediction, I was fortunate to be long the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN, VXX going into Monday’s session. VXX notched a nice one day gain of...
- External links 2009-04-21
- Commercial Real Estate Likely to Usher In Next Leg of Financial Crisis
- Bill Luby submits: Last week, in Commercial Real Estate Problems Piling Up, I opined that commercial real estate is a likely candidate to usher in the next leg of the financial crisis. Since the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index gets so much publicity, I thought this would be a good...
- External links 2009-04-29
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