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- Chart of the Week: TIPS Breaking Out
- Bill Luby submits: While there were many important stories that broke this week, the one which found me briefly holding my breath was the failed auction of £1.75 billion in U.K. government 40-year bonds on Wednesday followed by the weak demand for $34 billion of 5-year U.S. Treasury notes...
- External links 2009-03-29
- Using Options to Control the Risks of Leveraged ETFs
- Bill Luby submits: Several readers noted that options on leveraged ETFs seemed like a recipe for disaster, as if no good could possibly come from piling leverage on top of leverage. While I certainly understand the sentiment, this type of thinking is typical of investors who have little or...
- External links 2009-05-27
- SPX, VIX and Late-Day Rallies
- Bill Luby submits: Today was an interesting trading day, particularly during the last hour of equity trading. The graphic at the bottom records in Pacific Time the intraday movements in the VIX, which was essentially flat for all but the first hour and the last 22...
- External links 2009-05-29
- Chart of the Week: Emerging Markets Continue to Add Gains
- Bill Luby submits: One of my best trades for 2009 has been a long position in [[EEM]], the emerging markets ETF. The chart of the week below click to enlarge shows that emerging markets have been consistently outperforming the S&P 500 index since the beginning or January (see ratio...
- External links 2009-06-01
- Eerie Déjà Vu as VIX and SPX Both Jump More than 2.5%
- Bill Luby submits: If you follow me on Twitter, you probably saw my surprise when I asked rhetorically, “When is the last time the VIX was making new intraday highs with the $DJIA up 230?” While I can’t answer that question (though my guess is that...
- External links 2009-06-02
- SPX Daily Returns Since March 6
- Bill Luby submits: Lately it seems as if the market has only two directions: up and sideways. Since the March 6 bottom, that has not been entirely the case, but it hasn’t been too far from the truth. The graphic below is a histogram that reflects...
- External links 2009-06-02
- ETFs, Leverage and Strangles
- Bill Luby submits: I was surprised by the volume of the feedback I received from last week’s Using Options to Control Risk in Leveraged ETFs. Clearly there is a great deal of interest in options and leveraged ETFs. Among the emails I received were several questions...
- External links 2009-06-03
- SPX and the 200 Day Moving Average
- Bill Luby submits: Lately there has been a great deal of talk related to the SPX closing above its 200 day moving average for the first time since the end of 2007. The first question traders should ask themselves is whether this technical artifact has any...
- External links 2009-06-04
- Banks, Tech Need to Rise Together
- Bill Luby submits: One month ago today in The Banks vs. Technology, I mentioned the divergence between technology and financials and noted, “so far the financials XLF have done a better job of leading the market up than technology stocks XLK have done of inspiring the bears.” ...
- External links 2009-06-08
- Stock of the Week Winning Streak Now Up to 13 Weeks
- Bill Luby submits: At the end of May, in VIX and More Stock of the Week Selection Up 343% in 14 Months, I promised to post future Stock of the Week (SOTW) selections here on the site one day after I flagged them in the subscriber newsletter as long...
- External links 2009-06-09
- Nouriel Roubini and the VIX
- Bill Luby submits: Call me crazy, but lately I have been pondering the sudden disappearance of Nouriel Roubini from the media scene. You could probably add the likes of Meredith Whitney and others to the list of media sensations who rose to fame as a result of successful predictions...
- External links 2009-06-11
- Anticipating Some Reversals: Three Ingredients in Play
- Bill Luby submits: At the height of yesterday’s run up to SPX 956, a commenter took me to task for having a bearish bias in the face of a bull stampede. At the time, I was ready to close out most of my short positions, but this decision was...
- External links 2009-06-12
- Stock of the Week Winning Streak Ends at 13 Weeks
- Bill Luby submits: It was a fun ride while it lasted, but the Stock of the Week (SOTW) winning streak finally came to an end last week, after 13 consecutive weekly winning selections. In the end, it was a scant 0.14 weekly decline in LSB Industries LXU that brought...
- External links 2009-06-16
- Observations on the VXX:VXZ Ratio
- Bill Luby submits: Since its launch on January 30th, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN VXX has generated an enthusiastic following, with an average volume of 400,000 shares traded each day. The same claim cannot be made of VXX’s more problematic sibling, the iPath S&P 500 VIX...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Who's Trading the VIX and VXX?
- Bill Luby submits: Several times in the past, I have had some fun with the Trading Patterns feature at optionsXpress, including a February 2008 post, optionsXpress Trading Patterns and the VIX, which examined the securities that optionsXpress customers who traded the VIX were also trading. Given...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Lack of Volume and Breadth Threatens Bull Move
- Bill Luby submits: In the last few weeks, stocks have struggled to add to recent gains, suffering even more from a lack of buying interest than from selling pressure.The chart of the week below is an attempt to use two basic indicators to capture the lack of volume and...
- External links 2009-06-22
- Chart of the Week: Drop in Dollar Lifts Commodities
- Bill Luby submits: One of the market-moving stories of the week was a decision by Standard & Poor’s to lower their outlook for AAA-rated sovereign debt of the United Kingdom from stable to negative. This action caused ripples in the currency markets, with the dollar coming under pressure after...
- External links 2009-05-25
- VIX:VXV Ratio Heading Toward the Bearish Zone
- Bill Luby submits: Lately I have received quite a few requests to talk about the VIX:VXV ratio, something that I first blogged about back in December 2007, shortly after the VXV volatility index was launched. The chart below click to enlarge is my standard VIX:VXV ratio chart...
- External links 2009-05-21
- Yesterday's VIX Jump Explained
- Bill Luby submits: Lately it seems like I am the only one who is not talking about the VIX. I find it particularly ironic that many of the same people who were pounding the table saying that the market could not bottom unless there was another dramatic VIX spike...
- External links 2009-04-07
- Is the Next Shoe About to Drop?
- Bill Luby submits: There has been a lot of speculation about which corner of the economy is likely to implode next and start to write the next chapter in the current financial crisis. Credit card debt and commercial real estate are two of the most frequently cited potential culprits,...
- External links 2009-04-08
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