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- The Dubai Debacle: Is It a Game-Changer?
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Here we see the falling yields on 10-year Treasury notes, as the flight to quality in the wake of Dubai default fears has driven those yields back toward October lows. by Brett Steenbarger
- External links 2009-11-27
- Gold and the Dollar: A Picture for Perspective
- Brett Steenbarger submits: [click images to enlarge] After trading in a narrowing range for quite a few months (GLD; bottom chart above), gold broke sharply to the upside. That occurred at the same time that the U.S. dollar gapped lower and made fresh lows against major currencies (UUP;...
- External links 2009-09-15
- Some Historical Background for Momentum Trading
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Are markets that are strong in the most recent time period more likely to trade above the highs for that period in the next period? Are markets that are weak in the most recent time period more likely to trade below the lows for that...
- External links 2009-09-08
- More Thoughts on a Transitional Swing Trading System
- Brett Steenbarger submits: My recent post illustrated how the great majority of days see the S&P 500 Index SPY trade above its previous day's high or below its low. Nearly half of all days, however, see the market close within its prior day's range. That suggests that false breakouts...
- External links 2009-09-08
- China Weakness Affecting Materials Stocks
- Brett Steenbarger submits: With China (FXI; top chart) well off its early August highs, note the relative weakness of Basic Materials companies today and on a one-week basis per the excellent FinViz site. If growth in China is slowing down, demand for raw materials should weaken--and that puts a...
- External links 2009-08-31
- What the Aussie Dollar Might Tell Us About Stocks
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Another nice graphic from FinViz: Note how, among the actively traded currencies, the market recovery has been led by New Zealand and Australia vs. the U.S. dollar top chart. The currencies of the resource producing countries, as a whole, have fared better than those of the...
- External links 2009-08-27
- Asset Class Review: Corporate Bonds
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Recent asset class reviews have focused on grains, industrial metals, Treasury debt, and crude oil, gold, and the U.S. dollar. In this look, we will examine U.S. corporate bonds: investment grade (LQD; top chart) and high yield (JNK; bottom chart). by Brett Steenbarger
- External links 2009-08-27
- Asset Class Review: Grains
- Brett Steenbarger submits: by Brett Steenbarger
- External links 2009-08-25
- Asset Class Review: Industrial Metals
- Brett Steenbarger submits: In recent posts we have taken a broad look at U.S. Treasuries and a similar look at gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar. These big picture views help us appreciate intermarket relationships that capture growth/risk assumption vs. recession/risk aversion themes among global macro traders and...
- External links 2009-08-23
- Morning Market Briefing: After the Drop
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Here you see how we're setting up for today's open in the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures. The multiday range that has been the subject of several recent posts stands out here. We tested the lower end of that range (the 7/24 lows) on the heels...
- External links 2009-07-29
- S&P Tests May Lows
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Note the head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 Index SPY that has received much recent attention. The 20-day volume-weighted average price blue line that had acted as support during the rally became resistance during the recent upmove. Now we are testing the neckline of...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Market Strength Shifts from Day to Night
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Here's an addendum to the recent post on shifting opportunity in the stock market. If we look at the S&P 500 Index SPY since the March low, we find that SPY gained 12.17 points during the day sessions from the March lows through the end of...
- External links 2009-07-02
- Anatomy of a Market Breakout
- Brett Steenbarger submits: After the trading in a narrow range overnight and early in the morning, consumer confidence data came in much weaker than expected. If you click on the Market Delta chart above, you'll see within the bars how large size began hitting bids as the ES market...
- External links 2009-06-30
- Gaining a Feel for the Market by Immersion in Historical Trading Patterns
- Brett Steenbarger submits: A central part of my preparation for the trading day consists of running historical investigations of current market patterns. For example, if I notice that an index has been down for two consecutive sessions, culminating in a 10-day closing price low, I'll consult market history...
- External links 2009-06-28
- Pre-Open Briefing: Weakness Starts the Week
- Brett Steenbarger submits: With the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures market (ES) unable to hold above the 915 level stressed last week, we're now seeing selling toward last week's lows, continuing the market's trend shift. We also continue to see intermarket themes dominate: the strong U.S. dollar versus the...
- External links 2009-06-22
- Pre-Opening Briefing: Continuing the Trend
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Here's how we look in the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) contract going into the 7:30 AM CT jobless claim numbers. Note the resistance between 912 and 914, as we continue in a short-term downtrend mode. If the 7:30 AM number cannot move us above that resistance...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Emerging vs. U.S. Markets: A Look at Relative Performance
- Brett Steenbarger submits: One way I look at risk appetite in the equity markets is to track the performance of emerging market countries (EEM, top chart) and the relative performance of emerging markets to the U.S. (EEM:SPY, bottom chart).We can see from the top chart that EEM has made fresh...
- External links 2009-09-16
- The Dollar and the Carry Trade, Simplified
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Let's say two people have bank deposits: one at United States Bank and the other at Euro Bank. United States Bank is offering a one-year certificate of deposit for .35%. Euro Bank is offering .36% at its UK branch and .68% at its German branch. Japan...
- External links 2009-09-18
- Indicator Update for Sept. 23
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Last week's indicator review found consistent strength across the indicators and a bullish bias among intermarket themes. That bias continued this past week, as we saw further weakness in the U.S. dollar and strength in gold and oil. Sectors continued their upward trend, and the advance-decline...
- External links 2009-09-21
- Intraday Put/Call Ratios as Short-Term Sentiment Measures
- Brett Steenbarger submits: click to enlarge If you take a look at my recent post on the CBOE equity put/call ratio, you'll get a sense for what an average ratio has looked like lately. Those ratios, however, can also be informative on an intraday basis. by...
- External links 2009-11-22
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