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- Misinterpretation of Gold Lease Rates and Why Gold Could Rise
- Brian Kelly submits: As the credit crunch intensified and global financial panic set in, the gold lease rates soared to the highest level since 2001. However, what has been confused in the uproar about the absolute value of lease rates is the fact that relative lease ...
- External links 2008-10-20
- Industrial Capacity Utilization: Bearish Foreshadowing?
- Brian Kelly submits: Simply put, we found the industrial production report to be terribly bearish for the US economy. Ten months ago the Federal Reserve began expanding the monetary base and as we have written this should lead to an uptick in industrial production within six months. Click to enlarge:...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Has the Weak Dollar Sentiment Turned?
- Brian Kelly submits: The Euro is weaker vs. the dollar despite a positive German IFO number. For the third month in a row Germany's economic research IFO indicated that business was improving and the economy may have bottomed. Similar to sentiment in the U.S., the German business outlook indicated future...
- External links 2009-06-23
- Playing in the Treasury Bond Auction Pool
- Brian Kelly submits: As macro traders it behooves us to examine the stellar 2 year note auction. The bid to cover was 3.19 and indirect bidders took 68.6% of the auction!! Anyone who thinks foreign central banks have stopped buying U.S. debt should look to this auction for clarity. Click...
- External links 2009-06-25
- If the Swiss Can Do It, Why Can't We?
- Brian Kelly submits: When the Swiss National Bank [SNB] intervened in the both the US Dollar / Swissie pair and the Euro / Swissie pair we called it a watershed event that the markets had ignored. Last week we began to hear the rhetoric that we cautioned against. ...
- External links 2009-06-30
- Equity Risk Premium Levels Suggest March Lows Will Hold
- Brian Kelly submits: Last quarter, we dusted off the “Fed Model” to look at historical risk premiums and their relationship to earnings. At the commencement of earnings season we shall once again return to the Fed Model and examine the market reaction to spikes in risk premium. Robert...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Truck Tonnage: More Evidence of Rising Pressure on Transport Sector
- Brian Kelly submits: On CNBC Street Signs Monday, I spoke about how falling railcar loadings could hurt the revenue of CSX CSX. Lo and behold CSX reported earnings that were better than estimates, however the bottom line was enhanced by cost cutting not revenue growth. Now we must turn to...
- External links 2009-07-14
- Falling Diesel Demand to Weigh on Transport Index?
- Brian Kelly submits: Our bearish investment stance on the Dow Jones transportation index IYT has been based on the lack of demand for distillates which includes diesel fuel, the primary input for the transportation sector. The inference has been falling diesel demand foreshadows falling transportation demand. This is the result...
- External links 2009-07-15
- Gold Lease Rates Show LIBOR's a Lousy Interest Rate Indicator
- Brian Kelly submits: Much ado has been made about the negative gold lease rates; conspiracy theories abound, but the truth is mathematics has more to do with it than gold market manipulation. Click to enlarge: by Brian Kelly
- External links 2009-07-16
- As Fed Props Up Markets, What Happens When It Stops?
- Brian Kelly submits: As we pondered the potential reasons for a stock market rally in the face of mediocre economic news and the potential bankruptcy of CIT Group CIT, we hit upon a “highly scientific” view of the current condition of the global financial markets. Here is the formula: ...
- External links 2009-07-19
- The Implications of Russia's Declining U.S. Debt Purchases
- Brian Kelly submits: The week ahead in the financial markets is sure to excite with Ben Bernanke testifying and Apple AAPL reporting earnings, but one hidden indicator that investors may have overlooked suggests that China still remains a buyer of U.S. Debt, while Russia…not so much. The Treasury International Capital...
- External links 2009-07-19
- Sentiment Shift: Has the Dollar Decoupled from Equities?
- Brian Kelly submits: For the better part of the last year the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities have been like two best friends on a see saw. If equities went down the dollar went up; equities go down, dollar goes up. However, last week we saw a change...
- External links 2009-07-21
- Cash for Clunkers Could Be a Boon for Palladium
- Brian Kelly submits: On CNBC Friday we spoke about North American Palladium PAL as a play on the cash for clunkers program. At the same time the U.S. government was doing some juicing of its own, it was revealed that members of our beloved Red Sox had “unwittingly” used performance...
- External links 2009-08-03
- Is China Really Dumping Treasuries?
- Brian Kelly submits: Despite claims to the contrary the Chinese are savvy capitalists and even savvier traders. Consider the stockpiling of commodities at recent lows and the subsequent sales being made at elevated prices. The trading acumen extends to the Treasury market as well. To understand the Chinese...
- External links 2009-08-24
- How Will Markets React to a Dollar Rise?
- Brian Kelly submits: As the G20 concludes and the U.S. equity markets decline, the U.S. dollar is playing pivotal role in both the foreign currency markets and geo-political posturing. Last fall, during the height of the economic crisis the U.S. dollar index broke a 6 year downtrend which began in...
- External links 2009-09-27
- Dollar Following the Expected Pattern Indicating Upturn
- Brian Kelly submits: The U.S. dollar index has turned at a 61.8% retracement of the September 21-28 rally. This is exactly what is expected if the dollar is indeed starting a new long term uptrend. US Dollar Index – 90 Minute Chart Click to enlarge by Brian...
- External links 2009-10-01
- Why the Yen Is About to Devalue
- Brian Kelly submits: If a second round of global economic weakness occurs, the pressure for competitive currency devaluations will rise. The Swiss have already begun to devalue their currency and now we turn to the markets to tell us who may be next. Over the weekend, the G7 met and...
- External links 2009-10-06
- Congress to Approve IMF Gold Sale This Week
- Brian Kelly submits: This week the Supplemental Budget Appropriations Bill goes to committee to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate. While most eyes will be focused on the political horse trading that will surely be a part of the process, we will be focused on Title XIII of...
- External links 2009-06-02
- With Backwardation, Higher Gas Prices This Summer
- Brian Kelly submits: Since the beginning of May, the gasoline futures market has been in backwardation. 'Backwardation' is the term used to describe when near-month futures contracts trade above far month contracts. The implication for the gasoline market is that near month demand is stronger than supply, a bullish signal...
- External links 2009-05-21
- Is COMEX Running Out of Gold?
- Brian Kelly submits: The “blogosphere” has been all atwitter with stories of the COMEX [Commodity Exchange] warehouses running out of gold. There was interesting speculation about the motives behind the ECB’s recent sale of gold. The ECB happened to sell gold on the exact same day that Credit Suisse CS...
- External links 2009-05-07
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