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- Move on Gold Coming Soon? U.S.'s 'Willy-Nilly' Actions Could Be to Blame
- Is it possible that gold could move up in value to say $1,400 and at the same time the relative values of the Dollar/Euro/Yen/ Sterling would remain stable (+/- 2%)?One month ago I would have said that would not be possible. Today it looks like a wild card that could...
- External links 2009-11-04
- FHFA Report on Restructuring: Getting It Consistently Wrong
- The FHFA released a report on their refinancing activity for the year to date. As usual it was cast in glowing terms. It is clear that FHFA is doing something. In my view that ‘something’ is consistently the wrong thing. From the report: Washington, DC – Fannie Mae and Freddie...
- External links 2009-08-14
- Fed Manipulation: Adding to the Bloggers' Case
- A week ago a great debate was stirred in the financial blog world. As is often the case, Zero Hedge was in the middle of the fracas. Mr. Durden penned a piece that suggested that the Fed was manipulating the auctions in such a way as to benefit the primary...
- External links 2009-08-14
- Freddie and Fannie: So Bad They're Good?
- Freddie Mac FRE had a good day. Up 130%. Its poor sister Fannie Mae FNM was up a more modest 50%. This big up move comes on the heels of an after the market release on Friday of 2nd quarter earning at FRE. These numbers actually showed a gain. After...
- External links 2009-08-10
- Fannie Mae's 8K: .9 Trillion in Troubled Loans
- Fannie Mae’s FNM 8k has an interesting slide. It is a look at their questionable assets. The slide is not easy to read. It can be found in the 2009 Second Quarter Supplement, on page 5.The report describes FNM’s exposure to problematic classes of mortgages on their book. That total...
- External links 2009-08-07
- Fannie Mae: Trading Derivatives...and Losing
- It has been my contention that the Agencies were a factor in the bond market volatility in the past three months. Fannie's FNM 10Q has the following information regarding their derivative activity in the first six months of the year. As of June 30, FNM had a balance sheet of...
- External links 2009-08-07
- UBS vs. U.S.A: Where Does This Go Next?
- August 1st is the big celebration day in Switzerland. Not unlike the US 4th of July. Fireworks, picnics and parades. There must be more than a few folks in Switzerland who were sweating this weekend out. It is not entirely clear at this point what the resolution to the UBS...
- External links 2009-08-03
- FHFA's First Anniversary: No Cause for Celebration
- FHFA is having a birthday party. They are one year old. There is not much to celebrate. Not surprisingly, the speech by James Lockhart contained nothing new. I doubt there were many Champagne bottles opened for this occasion. There is one aspect to Mr. Lockhart’s presentation that I found interesting....
- External links 2009-07-31
- Update: Fannie and Freddie Preferred
- On July 14th I wrote about the trading activity in Fannie Mae FNM/Freddie Mac FRE preferred shares. It was clear then that there was a buyer. The buy side interest has continued: by Bruce Krasting
- External links 2009-07-30
- Two Year Treasury Note: No Juice for the Carry Trade
- I would give yesterday’s 2-year auction a C+. Not a good sign. To get the bid/cover ratio back to a B+ will require more juice to tempt the carry trade. Consider it on a leveraged basis. If one had $5mm and some friends in town it would not be at...
- External links 2009-07-29
- How Debt Repudiation Presents Systemic Risk
- In its Week in Review section, the NY Times recently ran a piece by David Streitfeld titled “When Debtors Decide to Default”. I thought it was an important story. The NY Times put the issue of Debt Repudiation on the table. Exactly where it belongs. The author also contributed a...
- External links 2009-07-28
- Fed Mortgage Report: So What's Ginnie Mae Been Up To?
- The total size of the mortgage market has been flat for a year. In its June report the Federal Reserve reported that the total market had declined from $14.68 trillion at year end 2008 to 14.60t. in March of 2009. The following looks at the moving deck chairs on...
- External links 2009-07-21
- Mega Jumbo Loan Default Rates Rising in Florida
- Mortgage defaults in Florida are nothing new. Even my four-year old niece is aware that there is a problem with condos in Miami. However a call from a friend prompted a closer look. This fellow owns a house in a 600 home gated community in Collier County FL. This place...
- External links 2009-07-17
- A Close Look at GE Ahead of Earnings
- General Electric GE is to release its earnings on Friday. The consensus is for 23 cents EPS (down 57% from a year ago). GE has so many ways to move this number that I would look for it to be the standard 1-2 cents ahead of expectations. This will give...
- External links 2009-07-13
- Freddie Mac ESOP: Looks Like a Conflict of Interest
- Mr. Lockhart’s decision to leave FHFA at the end of the month took me by surprise. It’s only the 21st and he already has a new job. Distressed debt at WL Ross & Co. LLC. Funny how these things work out.There were a few rumors regarding the Agency's future a...
- External links 2009-08-21
- Clunkers and Home Buyer Tax Credit: All the Same Thing
- The car clunker program was a huge success. Close to 700,000 cars were sold as a result of the program. The cash rebate was the down payment that was necessary for consumers to borrow more money and buy a car. The clunker concept has now been extended to washing machines....
- External links 2009-08-27
- Richmond Fed: GSEs Encourage Mortgage Defaults
- The Richmond Fed produced a report that provides some useful information on the issue of non-recourse mortgage loans and their default rates. The report includes a State-by-State breakdown of the rules for defaulting.This report was over my head. For example, the following calculation describes the probability of a short sale...
- External links 2009-11-02
- FDIC, FHA, Fannie and Freddie Real Estate Exposure Killing Home Values in Georgia
- The FDIC held a big auction this week of properties they own outside of Atlanta Ga. JP King conducted the auction. The FDIC put up 187 properties for sale. The results have not been released yet. I suspect that it might be an interesting story when the numbers do come...
- External links 2009-10-31
- Housing Tax Credit D.O.A. Now What?
- The $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers is turning into a disaster of major proportions. According to a WSJ and other report, fraud has been rampant in this program. Some highlights: “The Treasury tax-oversight office said at least 19,000 filers who hadn't bought...
- External links 2009-10-24
- Who Should Pay for Targeted Mortgage Lending?
- Edward DeMarco, the boss at FHFA made the following statement recently: For many decades the federal government has sought to affect housing finance in ways that promoted the availability of credit for low-and moderate-income homeowners and renters. Under the current structure, the many subsidies granted the Enterprises were exchanged...
- External links 2009-10-15
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