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- TIPS Update
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: click to enlarge The major trend in the Treasury bond market this year has been a reversal of the deflationary expectations which dominated sentiment at the end of last year. As this chart shows, inflation expectations have risen but are still lower than they...
- External links 2009-06-22
- Bernanke's Exit Strategy: Be Careful of Inflation Complacency
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: As he laid it out in his op-ed in Tuesday's WSJ, the Fed's exit strategy looks sensible. I've argued that the exit strategy shouldn't be all that difficult. It should start when it is clear that the economy has come out of the woods (which...
- External links 2009-07-23
- Brazilian Stocks Surge
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Measured in dollars, the Brazilian stock market is up 130% from its low of late last year, with a stronger real contributing almost one fourth of the gain. This is an undeniable green shoot. Brazil is rebounding on a number of fronts, enjoying the...
- External links 2009-07-31
- Are the Chinese Stockpiling Everything?
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: The runup in almost all commodity prices this year is widely dismissed with the argument that it's all due to mindless, government-mandated, stimulus-funded stockpiling of commodities by the Chinese, so prices will sooner or later fall. To be sure, there are numerous reports of...
- External links 2009-07-31
- Higher T-Bond Yields Herald Recovery Mode
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: I've been saying for awhile that a 4% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds would be a good indication that the market had come to believe that the economy had exited recession and had entered recovery mode. As the arrow on this chart suggests, I...
- External links 2009-08-05
- Rising Commodity Prices Reflect Global Commerce Revival
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Commodity prices are an excellent way of keeping tabs in real time on the progress of the global economy. Copper has been leading the way, now up 124% from its lows of last year; crude oil is up 110%; the Journal of Commerce index...
- External links 2009-08-05
- TIPS Market Is Probably Underestimating Future Inflation
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: One of the reasons advanced for the creation of TIPS in 1997 was that having inflation-linked bonds and nominal bonds issued by the U.S. government would reveal the market's inflation expectations in real time, and this in turn would provide valuable guidance to policymakers and...
- External links 2009-08-11
- Stronger Equities, Weaker Dollar
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: I've posted on this subject before, and it remains a very important issue. Since last March, the dollar has weakened considerably and equities have enjoyed a powerful rally. (Note that the red line, the dollar, has an inverted scale, so a rising red line...
- External links 2009-08-21
- Despite the Rally, Corporate Bond Pricing Is Still Bearish
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: This chart shows the Option Adjusted Spread of the Merrill Lynch Corporate Master Index. That's an index that is currently comprised of some 3800 investment-grade issues with a market value of $2.8 trillion. We've seen a tremendous rally in corporate bonds, as spreads have...
- External links 2009-08-27
- Rising Copper Prices Signal Economic Recovery and Accomodative Monetary Policy
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Copper is up 135% from its lows of last year. It's up 378% from its lows of 2001, when tight monetary policy and a recession weighed heavily on the prices of virtually all commodity prices. What a difference a few years—and radically different monetary...
- External links 2009-09-08
- Chart Updates: Sugar Up 70%, Global Equities Rise from March Lows
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Sugar prices have soared 70% from their December lows, returning to the highs of early 2006. They were significantly higher a long time ago, however, when commodities were caught up in the inflationary boom times of 1974 and 1980. So is China buying up...
- External links 2009-07-23
- Bouncing Spot Commodity Prices Tell the Real Economic Story
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: jcjGovernment-generated statistics are subject to delays, errors in data collection, faulty seasonal adjustment, bad guesstimates, and sometimes major revisions well after the fact. You can't be misled by spot commodity prices, however. They are available in real-time, and they reflect the purchasing, selling, and...
- External links 2009-07-22
- As Fear Subsides, Equity Prices Rise
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Here's yet another installment in a long-running series. The main thesis is that fear—with the VIX index being a good proxy for the market's level of fear, uncertainty and doubt—played a big role in the economy's collapse last year. Fear, counterparty risk, deleveraging, cash...
- External links 2009-06-29
- Japanese Industrial Production Bounces
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Japan's industrial production surged 14% in the three months ending May 2009. That's one more green shoot that demonstrates the global economy is not in free-fall and in fact is rebounding from the sharp decline of late last year. The down-sequence goes something like...
- External links 2009-06-30
- Are TIPS Still a Good Investment?
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: I've been recommending TIPS since last November, when their real yields spiked and the market expected inflation to be negative for many years. Since then real yields have come down a lot, and inflation expectations have moved higher, and the combination of those two...
- External links 2009-07-08
- The Deflation Dog That Didn't Bark
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Given how miserable the economy has been, and considering the prevailing view that significant economic weakness is a source of deflationary pressures, many observers were likely quite surprised Tuesday morning when the government announced that the Producer Price Index jumped 1.8% in June, and...
- External links 2009-07-15
- The Deflation Dog That Didn't Bark, Part II
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: <<<Return to part I click to enlarge As was the case with producer prices yesterday, deflation was nowhere to be seen in the June CPI report. The headline CPI, heavily influenced by surging gasoline prices, was up at a 2.7% annualized rate in the...
- External links 2009-07-15
- Amex and Capital One: Credit Card Green Shoots
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Shares of American Express AXP and Capital One COF, both major credit card providers, today rose 11 and 12%, respectively, after they reported reductions in credit card delinquency rates. NEW YORK AP — Two major credit card providers reported more improvements in delinquency rates...
- External links 2009-07-16
- Residential Construction: Calling the Bottom
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Housing starts in June rose to the highest level in 7 months, after falling for 3 1/2 years to the lowest levels since records were first kept in 1959. Residential construction as a percent of GDP also fell to its lowest levels ever. After...
- External links 2009-07-17
- Coming Soon: The Decline of Money Demand
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: click to enlarge This chart illustrates what could be a very important and bullish development for the economy: the coming decline of money demand. by Calafia Beach Pundit
- External links 2009-07-19
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