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- For a Fork in the Road, a Barbell Portfolio
- Cam Hui submits: Whew! The official intervention in the last few weeks seems to be finally taking effect. Credit markets are finally starting to normalize as we see LIBOR starting to edge down.Now that the panic seems to be starting to end, I began to muse the implications...
- External links 2008-10-23
- Start of the Great Commodity Bull Market? Not Yet
- Cam Hui submits: Back in January, I speculated that Pound Sterling could be the canary in the coal mine. America’s problems parallel those of Britain, but the UK does not have the flexibility to be the issuer of a major reserve currency. With last week’s warning by S&P...
- External links 2009-05-26
- Fears of Inflation Seem Overblown
- Cam Hui submits: Yesterday on May 28, 2009, David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch and now at Gluskin Sheff, put out a note entitled “Buying Opportunity of the Year in Bonds?” He gives several reasons for anticipating a bond rally, here is an excerpt of his most important...
- External links 2009-05-29
- Is a Rising Baltic Dry Index a Bullish Sign for the Market? No.
- Cam Hui submits: Schaeffer’s Investment Research recently put out this note on using the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as an indicator for the S&P 500 [emphasis mine]: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continues to rise. Many consider this an excellent sign for the world economy. The BDI is...
- External links 2009-06-02
- What Else to Watch at the Fed
- Cam Hui submits: As the markets intensely scrutinizes the upcoming FOMC statement, I will instead be watching for Obama’s statement on the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chair in the days to come as a far more important clue to long-term market direction.Currently, intrade shows Bernanke to...
- External links 2009-06-24
- A Phoenix Report Card: Fears About China Coming Soon
- Cam Hui submits: I have often written about the Phoenix effect. On February 24, I posted that speculators could take a punt on Phoenix because the market was so oversold: While I wouldn’t recommend it, speculators could try to get long a basket of Phoenix stocks for...
- External links 2009-07-14
- The Timing Model: Just the Thing for Oscillating Investor Sentiment
- Cam Hui submits: For investors, the inflation vs. deflation call is probably the Call of the Decade.Never in my investment career have I seen opinions so bifurcated. While there are many smart investors calling for rising inflation because of the wall of money coming from fiscal and monetary...
- External links 2009-08-10
- Equity Market: Things Look Ugly for the Bulls
- Cam Hui submits: I spent the weekend looking over some of my sentiment model indicators and things look ugly for the bulls. First of all, the latest AAII survey of individual investors shows a spurt in bullishness, which is contrarian bearish. click to enlarge by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-08-16
- Housing Is Bottoming, But Wait for the Breakout in Homebuilders
- Cam Hui submits: Bloomberg recent reported that Homebuilders are buying land after years of inventory cuts. Coupled with a buoyant new home sales report, some investors have concluded that housing has bottomed and is poised to rebound. Wait for the relative breakout by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-08-30
- Is the Dollar Poised to Rally?
- Cam Hui submits: As good market analysts know, when the public gets on board a story, chances are everyone is already in the trade and the trend is likely to reverse soon. So it is with interest that I got the following viral email entitled "What good is...
- External links 2009-11-25
- Respect the Bear, Beware the Bull
- Cam Hui submits: The market action of this equity advance screams bear market rally, but I believe that traders need to respect the momentum inherent in this upswing.Bear market rally!I have characterized this move as a bear market rally before and I remain convinced that this advance does...
- External links 2009-05-07
- Anvil Mining: Rorschach Test for Investors
- Cam Hui submits: As the US equity market tests its October lows, I would concur with John Hussman’s cautious bullish stance on the market: On the issue of valuations, I want to reiterate that while I believe that stocks are finally priced to deliver acceptable and even modestly...
- External links 2008-11-14
- Another Explanation for Stock Market Volatility
- Cam Hui submits: Recently, there have been many articles referring to the equity market’s volatility. Barron’s reported that daily volatility is approaching 1929 levels. Bespoke reported that the recent average daily swing for the S&P 500 is now an astounding 3.8%! Floyd Norris blogs that: We have...
- External links 2008-11-26
- Heebner Turns Really Bullish on Market
- Cam Hui submits: I thought that it’s time to revisit Ken Heebner’s macro exposures after the recent WSJ article about Heebner making a big bet on Financials. I had written about Ken Heebner’s CGM Focus Fund CGMFX before. CGM Focus has an excellent long term track record and...
- External links 2008-12-10
- Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea
- Cam Hui submits: Inflation is coming... For as long as I can remember, Jim Grant has never been a cheerful fellow. In fact, there was a standing joke in my office that after reading Grant you could cheer up by reading King Lear. The thinking in Grant’s...
- External links 2008-12-30
- Signs of Spring for Homebuilders?
- Cam Hui submits: Remember housing? That’s where this crisis started. I have been waiting for stabilization from the Homebuilders for some time as a sign that this bear market may be at an end.Now comes an article by Irwin Kellner that housing valuations are becoming more reasonable. Scott...
- External links 2009-01-23
- Phoenix Rising: Day 1 Update
- Cam Hui submits: Nice rally yesterday! Unfortunately, yesterday's market action confirms my previous suspicions that this is a bear market rally and not a rally off THE BOTTOM.I have commented before that true bottoms that are conducive to the Phoenix effect tend to be initially led by large...
- External links 2009-02-25
- Update: Time to Buy Into the Phoenix Strategy?
- Cam Hui submits: It seems that I am not the only one highlighting a Phoenix strategy these days. Mebane Faber wrote that John Templeton successfully implemented a Phoenix-like strategy in 1939. As well, Standard Life is offering a Phoenix themed fund for UK investors.Further to my last Phoenix...
- External links 2009-03-11
- The Market Appears to Be Valuing Gold Stocks on Cash Flow, Not Assets
- Cam Hui submits: Mystery solved!In a recent post entitled Gold stock mystery, I had wondered, with the price of gold bullion nearing all-time highs, why were gold stocks underperforming? click on chart to enlarge by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-03-16
- Spotting the Bottom: Is This the New Bull?
- Cam Hui submits: Was that the real thing? Is this the new bull?Just as the consensus was forming that the rally from the lows last week was the start of a bear market rally example here, the Fed announced that it invented another tool to throw money at...
- External links 2009-03-19
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