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- For a Fork in the Road, a Barbell Portfolio
- Cam Hui submits: Whew! The official intervention in the last few weeks seems to be finally taking effect. Credit markets are finally starting to normalize as we see LIBOR starting to edge down.Now that the panic seems to be starting to end, I began to muse the implications...
- External links 2008-10-23
- Respect the Bear, Beware the Bull
- Cam Hui submits: The market action of this equity advance screams bear market rally, but I believe that traders need to respect the momentum inherent in this upswing.Bear market rally!I have characterized this move as a bear market rally before and I remain convinced that this advance does...
- External links 2009-05-07
- If Gold Bugs' Fantasies Came True
- Cam Hui submits: There have been a number recent of very bullish analysis on gold, with a target price in the $5,000 to $10,000/oz. range (for examples, see this, this and this). I would like to explore the question of what happens if every gold bug’s fantasy came...
- External links 2009-05-15
- Start of the Great Commodity Bull Market? Not Yet
- Cam Hui submits: Back in January, I speculated that Pound Sterling could be the canary in the coal mine. America’s problems parallel those of Britain, but the UK does not have the flexibility to be the issuer of a major reserve currency. With last week’s warning by S&P...
- External links 2009-05-26
- Fears of Inflation Seem Overblown
- Cam Hui submits: Yesterday on May 28, 2009, David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch and now at Gluskin Sheff, put out a note entitled “Buying Opportunity of the Year in Bonds?” He gives several reasons for anticipating a bond rally, here is an excerpt of his most important...
- External links 2009-05-29
- Is a Rising Baltic Dry Index a Bullish Sign for the Market? No.
- Cam Hui submits: Schaeffer’s Investment Research recently put out this note on using the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as an indicator for the S&P 500 [emphasis mine]: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continues to rise. Many consider this an excellent sign for the world economy. The BDI is...
- External links 2009-06-02
- The Bull and Bear Sides of Gold
- Cam Hui submits: Poor Tim Geithner! When he asserted that China’s Dollar assets are safe, he drew laughter from an audience of Chinese students. As well, an American delegation to the Gulf reportedly drew a blank back in May when it tried to get more petro-dollar investment into...
- External links 2009-06-04
- Gold: Critical Test for Inflation Trade
- Cam Hui submits: As I write this on Friday morning, the gold price is at $934.50 and is testing the uptrend that began in October 2008. Prices are also hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-06-19
- What Else to Watch at the Fed
- Cam Hui submits: As the markets intensely scrutinizes the upcoming FOMC statement, I will instead be watching for Obama’s statement on the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chair in the days to come as a far more important clue to long-term market direction.Currently, intrade shows Bernanke to...
- External links 2009-06-24
- The BoE's Grand Experiment
- Cam Hui submits: The long term outlook for the USD continues to look dire. As the story broke that the G8 failed to reach a consensus on policy, but believed that the world economy is too weak to withdraw stimulus, and the developing economies rose to challenge the...
- External links 2009-07-10
- A Phoenix Report Card: Fears About China Coming Soon
- Cam Hui submits: I have often written about the Phoenix effect. On February 24, I posted that speculators could take a punt on Phoenix because the market was so oversold: While I wouldn’t recommend it, speculators could try to get long a basket of Phoenix stocks for...
- External links 2009-07-14
- The Timing Model: Just the Thing for Oscillating Investor Sentiment
- Cam Hui submits: For investors, the inflation vs. deflation call is probably the Call of the Decade.Never in my investment career have I seen opinions so bifurcated. While there are many smart investors calling for rising inflation because of the wall of money coming from fiscal and monetary...
- External links 2009-08-10
- Equity Market: Things Look Ugly for the Bulls
- Cam Hui submits: I spent the weekend looking over some of my sentiment model indicators and things look ugly for the bulls. First of all, the latest AAII survey of individual investors shows a spurt in bullishness, which is contrarian bearish. click to enlarge by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-08-16
- Housing Is Bottoming, But Wait for the Breakout in Homebuilders
- Cam Hui submits: Bloomberg recent reported that Homebuilders are buying land after years of inventory cuts. Coupled with a buoyant new home sales report, some investors have concluded that housing has bottomed and is poised to rebound. Wait for the relative breakout by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-08-30
- Is Barrick Responsible for $1,000 Gold?
- Cam Hui submits: Bespoke recently asked the question: Did Barrick jinx gold again?Now we have the answer and it doesn't look pretty. Barrick's ABX de-hedging program may have actually driven up the gold price with its buying, according to this report [emphasis mine]: by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-09-10
- Will New Finds Mean the End of Peak Oil?
- Cam Hui submits: The October Qwest for Returns newsletter that I authored is out. Here is the abstract: In this issue we present the case for peak oil, emphasizing that talking about peak oil today is not about how much oil there is in the ground, which we...
- External links 2009-10-01
- Critical Test for Gold
- Cam Hui submits: Gold has had a nice run in the last few months but as the chart below shows the yellow metal seems to have faltered lately. by Cam Hui
- External links 2009-04-09
- China: From Crony Capitalism to Geopolitical Mercantilism?
- Cam Hui submits: Recently there have been many calls for bondholders and shareholders of troubled financials to bear the brunt of the crisis. As an example, John Hussman recently wrote: Make no mistake - we are selling off our future and the future of our children...
- External links 2009-03-30
- Can't They Even Slam the Barn Door Right?
- Cam Hui submits: I have repeatedly hammered on the theme that quantitative modelers need to spend more time thinking about the assumptions behind their models see my recent posts What actually happens in the long run and There are no models for all seasons. Analysts need to understand...
- External links 2008-11-12
- Anvil Mining: Rorschach Test for Investors
- Cam Hui submits: As the US equity market tests its October lows, I would concur with John Hussman’s cautious bullish stance on the market: On the issue of valuations, I want to reiterate that while I believe that stocks are finally priced to deliver acceptable and even modestly...
- External links 2008-11-14
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