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- Construction Spending: On the Rise
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Here's an update to a chart I have shown regularly. Housing PRICES showed a bottom a while ago. Due to crowding out from the fiscal stimulus, it was expected that a housing recovery would be more visible in housing prices than in housing CONSTRUCTION. Nevertheless,...
- External links 2009-10-01
- DeLong Sets the Table for Multiplier Measurement
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Professor DeLong explains how government spending should have essentially the same multiplier as housing construction spending: Shocks to spending boost nominal demand: whenever any significant group decides to boost their spending nominal demand rises, whether that group is new businesses seeking to profit...
- External links 2009-10-01
- The Panic of '08: Cause or Effect of the Recession?
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: The financial panics of last September and October will always be part of the story of this recession, just as bank failures are always part of the Great Depression story. But recent research questions the claim that the financial panics themselves contributed to their contemporaneous...
- External links 2009-10-23
- Research Shows Public Policy Hampers Home Ownership
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: This August, I released a paper explaining why the mortgage modification programs implemented by the Bush and Obama Administrations were probably increasing foreclosures, rather than reducing them. The paper was based on government explanations of the programs rules, and economic reasoning as to how borrowers...
- External links 2009-10-30
- New Housing Data - Another Indicator of Employment Not Returning Soon
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: A couple of housing price indices, plus national accounts revisions were released today. Much of the new data is not newsworthy, but I did notice that real nonresidential investment was even lower in Q3 than it was in Q2 -- another indicator that employment is...
- External links 2009-11-24
Additional Resources
- Retail Sales Beat Last Year's Weak Turnout, But Are Still In a Slump
- Each week, watchers of the retail industry release two different flash reports on the latest sales. The reports, out Thursday, show that late October showed the best numbers in over a year, but as we've seen in housing, car sales, manufacturing, and just about everywhere else, the credit crisis and...
- Blog posts 2009-11-05
- A GM Collapse Would Signal Hope for Robin Hood
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Republicans are supposedly the ones who promote "Reverse Robin Hood" policies -- help the rich at the expense of the poor. Robin Hood is supposedly a prototypical member of the Democratic Party. So far neither party has done a whole lot to earn their...
- External links 2008-11-18
- Why Housing Dragged Down Stocks
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: The housing crash is one of the fundamentals our economy inherits from the past. This is boom time for the nonresidential sector because, after a long wait, the housing sector no longer absorbs so many resources. If you are young with new business ideas -- good...
- External links 2008-11-20
- Is Goldman Sachs Sounding an Exaggerated Alarm?
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Goldman Sachs GS has revised its economic growth forecast. It has been characterized as gloomy, and putting the blame on bad public policy. But let's dissect it. WARPED PERSPECTIVE At quarterly rates, GDP growth, they say, will fall 5/4%, 3/4%, and 1/4% from 2008 Q3-Q4,...
- External links 2008-11-24
- Auto Bailout: Ford's Sentiment Tells All
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Of the Big Three, Ford F is said to be the most solvent. Does Ford want its weaker competitors to fail or survive? In many industries, each producer fantasizes that some of his competitors would go out of business. With their failure, the surviving...
- External links 2008-12-22
- Two More Reasons I Think Housing Has Hit Bottom
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Last month I floated the idea that the housing market had hit its bottom. The two things I saw were: a December increase in housing prices as measured by the OFHEO, and a January decrease in the PPI for residential construction that was a lot...
- External links 2009-03-18
- About Government Subsidies, MBS and Chicago Taxicabs
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Subsidies can have a perverse effect on activity if they are debated too long. The banking sector bailout is one example; the purchase of hybrid automobiles by Chicago cab drivers is another. Hybrid automobiles can save gas, especially in urban driving conditions when the automobile...
- External links 2009-04-10
- Goldman's Issuance: Proof TARP Money Isn't Being Loaned Out
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: It is reported that Goldman Sachs will issue common stock to repay their TARP loan.It is neither a coincidence nor a surprise that Goldman GS issues shares at the same time that they repay their TARP money. I explained last fall how Treasury "capital injections"...
- External links 2009-04-11
- Housing Prices May Have Stopped Falling
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: The housing boom is acknowledged largely because housing was accumulated at a faster rate 2002-2006 than it was in 1990s.Maybe less recognized is that real per capita incomes grew 0.8% less per year 2000-2008 than they did in the 1990s. Population grew 0.3% per year less....
- External links 2009-04-22
- More Evidence that Housing is Stabilizing, Yet Forward Markets Disagree
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: The way I see the data on new home sales below and home prices from various sources here and here, the 2009 housing market is not crashing like the 2008 housing market. Click to enlarge: Someone asked why I think that home prices were due...
- External links 2009-04-26
- BB&T: Government Capital Crowds Out Private Capital
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Treasury "capital injections" just result in greater payments to bank industry shareholders. Some of the ways it could work is that a bank receiving TARP money would buy back its shares (or buy, for cash, shares of competitors), use the Treasury funds to forestall raising new...
- External links 2009-05-12
- Non-Residential Construction Spending Higher than at the Start of Recession
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: The chart below shows monthly seasonally adjusted construction spending separately for residential and non-residential. Non-residential spending increased for the third straight month, and remains higher than it was when the recession began. Residential construction spending increased for the first time in eight months. The BLS...
- External links 2009-06-02
- Obama's Auto Incentives Are Off the Mark
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: The AP reports Consumers could receive rebates of up to $4,500 for turning in their gas-guzzling cars and trucks for more fuel-efficient vehicles under a House proposal. by Casey B. Mulligan
- External links 2009-06-10
- 2 Sports-Based Economic Indicators
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: Two real time crude sports-based indicators of economic activity in Chicago look bad: (1) My ebay EBAY auction for 4 tickets to the usually wildly popular Sox @ Cubs game next week has zero bids, even though the price starts at face value.(2) After...
- External links 2009-06-11
- How Can the Stimulus Bill Alleviate Unemployment?
- Casey B. Mulligan submits: The stimulus bill reminds me of Kindergarten Cop -- Schwarzenegger's movie when he plays a cop who goes undercover as a kindergarten teacher, and ultimately quits his policeman job to teach kindergarten on a permanent basis.This recession has brought employment down over six million. By industry,...
- External links 2009-07-17
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