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- Trucker YRC's Presumptuous TARP Funds Application
- Chad Brand submits: For those who don’t know, YRC Worldwide YRCW is the former Yellow Roadway. Here is some of what the Wall Street Journal is reporting: YRC Worldwide Inc., one of the nation’s largest trucking companies, will seek $1 billion in federal bailout money to help...
- External links 2009-05-17
- Dendreon: At Times Wall Street Resembles a Casino
- Chad Brand submits: You may have heard about Dendreon DNDN, a small money losing biotechnology company that is in the process of getting its cancer vaccine, Provenge, approved by the FDA. Full results from a crucial phase three study were released Tuesday afternoon in Chicago, but about half an...
- External links 2009-04-30
- Obama Administration: Watch Your Moves
- Chad Brand submits: Some people are worried that President Obama is going to try and run the banks and credit card issuers but how about this little tidbit from the Wall Street Journal: Then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson threatened to remove Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive...
- External links 2009-04-23
- Why I Take No Issue with the Government Firing GM's Wagoner
- Chad Brand submits: Call me skeptical that since the Obama administration’s auto task force ousted General Motors GM CEO Rick Wagoner it means the government is going to take over and ruin the auto industry. I think Wagoner’s list of accomplishments or lack thereof shows that he deserved to...
- External links 2009-04-11
- Financials Are Masking the Market's Potential
- Chad Brand submits: Some people are making the case that the stock market can rally meaningfully even without the financial sector recovering. I disagree simply because earnings are being negatively impacted so severely by loan losses and mark to market writedowns at the large financial institutions that investors won’t...
- External links 2009-03-20
- Historical Data Disproves 'Trough P/E Multiple on Trough Earnings' Myth
- Chad Brand submits: Doug Kass, a hedge fund manager dedicated to short selling and frequent guest on CNBC, made a call on the air Monday that the S&P 500 could make its lows for the year this week. A bold call indeed, given that Doug is a short seller...
- External links 2009-03-08
- Is the Powerful Market Rally Running Out of Steam?
- Chad Brand submits: After a very surprising employment report Friday morning (payrolls declined ~350k versus expectations of ~525k), the market reacted well at first but sellers have emerged. The fact that the market was flat Friday tells me the rally is losing steam (normally that type of jobs report...
- External links 2009-06-07
- Profit on TARP Repayments Will Only Cancel Out Other Losses
- Chad Brand submits: Before we start jumping for joy that the government stands to make a nice profit on the $68 billion of TARP money that is now eligible to be repaid, let’s consider that the gains are only from relatively healthy institutions. By forcing each of the nation’s...
- External links 2009-06-11
- Evaluating Current Market Levels with S&P 500 Having Reached My Fair Value Target
- Chad Brand submits: I have written here previously that my personal fair value target for the S&P 500 index was around 1,050. I got there by using an average P/E multiple of 14-15 and projecting a “normalized” earnings run rate for the index of around $70 annually. The index...
- External links 2009-09-18
- Cash for Clunkers: Everyone's a Winner
- Chad Brand submits: It is hard to argue with the success of the “Cash for Clunkers” automobile incentive program so far. With $1 billion already blown through, Congress is working on a $2 billion extension, despite most Republicans being against the program (probably because it was a Democratic idea,...
- External links 2009-08-04
- Meredith Whitney's Goldman Sachs Call: A Little Late?
- Chad Brand submits: My frequency of posting has diminished lately, mainly due to the fact that nothing of much interesting seems to be happening at least from my perspective. I always error on the side of posting less rather than writing just for the sake of doing so without...
- External links 2009-07-14
- A Pick Up in Housing Starts Will Only Prolong the Housing Recession
- Chad Brand submits: From the Associated Press this morning: Construction of new homes jumped in May by the largest amount in three months, an encouraging sign that the nation’s deep housing recession was beginning to bottom out. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of...
- External links 2009-06-17
- Hot Debate Surrounding Bank Solvency
- Chad Brand submits: I wanted to pass along some excellent work by Gary Townsend of Hill-Townsend Capital on how there can be such a hot debate on Wall Street about the solvency of our nation’s large banks. Essentially, it comes down to this: if you take loans on bank...
- External links 2009-03-05
- General Motors Fights Uphill Battle with Double Edged Sword
- Chad Brand submits: Shortly after the U.S. government lent the Big Three $17.4 billion, we learned Monday that an additional $6 billion of taxpayer money is headed to GMAC, the large General Motors GM finance arm. Where will this money go? Well, GMAC said Tuesday that it will immediately...
- External links 2008-12-31
- Financial, Retail Sector Weakness Mask Underlying Core Profitability
- Chad Brand submits: Simply judging from the stock market's performance over the last couple of months, you might think the entire U.S. economy is teetering on the brink of disaster. In reality though, the sheer ugliness of the financial services and retail sectors is masking the other eight sectors...
- External links 2008-12-03
- Valuing Stocks During a Recession
- Chad Brand submits: Now that third quarter earnings reports have largely been released, I thought I would write a bit about valuing stocks during a recession. Having seen all of the numbers and listened to all of the conference calls, I am beginning the process of going through my...
- External links 2008-11-18
- Analysts' Forward-Looking Estimates: Just Plain Nuts
- Chad Brand submits: One of the reasons sell-side analysts on Wall Street are usually pretty bad at picking stocks is because they are reactionary, not anticipatory. Remember, the market is forward-looking, so what already happened is irrelevant. Here we are, in a recession, and by most accounts the economy...
- External links 2008-10-23
- Banks Not Lending Anymore? Simply Untrue
- Chad Brand submits: One of the worst parts of being a money manager is that in order to stay on top of financial news one should really have CNBC on in the office constantly. There are many people on CNBC that I thoroughly enjoy (David Faber and Erin Burnett,...
- External links 2009-01-16
- Why Citi's Failure Costs More than Saving It Does
- Chad Brand submits: Why has the government injected $45 billion into Citigroup C rather than simply let it fail? Believe it or not, because of how much it might cost the taxpayer to do so. I know that might sound backwards, but consider the largest bank failure so far,...
- External links 2009-02-25
- Fair Value for the S&P: It's Not 440
- Chad Brand submits: Barry Ritholtz, market veteran and blogger over at The Big Picture, postulated today that fair value for the S&P 500 might be 440. He got there by taking trailing 12 month GAAP earnings of $28.75 and applying a 15 P/E ratio to them. Personally, I...
- External links 2009-02-13
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