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- AIG: New Math for Understanding What Went Wrong
- Clive Corcoran submits: It is becoming increasingly apparent from the scale of the revised AIG AIG rescue plan announced yesterday, and the fact that there has still been no real “pricing” of the really toxic stuff by the TARP, that the financial engineers that created this monumental disaster were either...
- External links 2008-11-11
- U.K. Banks on the Catwalk for Sovereign Wealth Funds
- Clive Corcoran submits:Last week I wrote about the Enigmatic Market Hypothesis which essentially could be summed up in the simple phrase that when Wall Street or the City in London wants to hold a sale they put their prices up.Improved sentiment and stock prices in the banking sector,...
- External links 2009-05-19
- Is the U.S. Dollar at Risk of Being Replaced?
- Clive Corcoran submits: One blogger Tuesday morning raised the following issue The world is not organized for nor does it exist for the convenience of America's self indulgent and self obsessed governing elites---- but our Government is so busy talking and posturing that it refuses to listen much less...
- External links 2009-06-02
- Hong Kong Index Ends at Exactly 38% Retracement of Swing High/Low
- Clive Corcoran submits: The chart below is a weekly chart for the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong. Superimposing a fibonacci grid over the historic high from October 2007 and the most recent lows seen last October, and more or less revisited in March, it can be seen that the...
- External links 2009-06-02
- Nobody Wants to Buy Latvian T-Bills
- Clive Corcoran submits: It's always a good idea to keep an eye on outlier events which are off most people's radar screens. As I noted in a posting on May 29th, Danske Bank drew attention to possibly disturbing consequences from the collapse in retailing in the Baltic...
- External links 2009-06-04
- Did the Fed Blink First Last Week?
- Clive Corcoran submits: Click to enlarge In Friday's trading the tension between the short end and long end of the US Treasury spectrum saw some rather dramatic adjustments. Surges at both the long and short end were seen but it was the two year note which...
- External links 2009-06-07
- Goldman Sachs: Getting a Piece of the Action
- Clive Corcoran submits: Reuters has calculated that the average salary for nearly 30,000 employees of Goldman Sachs GS this year will be $1 million. NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - The average Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS employee is within striking distance of $1 million in compensation and...
- External links 2009-07-14
- Goldman Sachs' Last Stand and the Fading of an Era of Market Timing
- Clive Corcoran submits: Financial innovation has become more or less synonymous with what might be called meta-market activities. That is where much of the day to day movements of markets and the activities of traders is based upon information derived directly from the market's internals and not from the "real"...
- External links 2009-07-20
- Bank of England Corners the Gilts Market
- Clive Corcoran submits: The surprise decision by the Bank of England yesterday to increase the ceiling on its Quantitative Easing [QE] program to £175 billion caught many City slickers by surprise and there was an immediate drop in sterling as seen in the chart above and an equally abrupt drop...
- External links 2009-08-07
- Dominic Lawson: Cut Bankers' Bonuses and We'll All Suffer
- Clive Corcoran submits: Dominic Lawson has a piece in the Sunday Times (Sept 6th 2009) which is entitled Cut bankers’ bonuses and we will all suffer . Here is part of his "reasoning": Yet when people get a cheaper mortgage because some financial whiz-kid on...
- External links 2009-09-08
- Dow Jones Industrials: A Different Risk Perspective
- Clive Corcoran submits: The chart above shows the use of an over-looked measure for determining the risk of owning equities. The graphic depicts the Ulcer Index as applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) since October 1928 - which is when easily accessible archived records are available.The index is...
- External links 2009-09-21
- Russell 2000: Is a Stall In Store?
- Clive Corcoran submits: The high beta index, the Russell 2000 (RUT) could be stalling at current levels and notably has failed to make a comparable push this week to that which has been seen on the DJIA and S&P 500. The index has certainly been very user friendly during the...
- External links 2009-10-16
- Goldman Sachs: 'A Hybrid Hedge Fund and Bookie'
- Clive Corcoran submits: Close inspection of the graphic above really tells you all you need to know about the much heralded "super-talent" on Wall Street. The large red columns on the chart shows us just how much of Goldman Sachs' GS revenues come from trading its own capital. When I...
- External links 2009-10-19
- Some Ironic Possibilities for the British Pound
- Clive Corcoran submits: The following are some musings on the U.K. economy, prompted by an adage that seems quite appropriate for our times of thinking the unthinkable. The U.K. public finances are in dire straits with a likely deficit this year well in excess of £200 billion and with red...
- External links 2009-10-29
- Australian Dollar Demonstrates New 'Niagara Falls' Technical Pattern
- Clive Corcoran submits: The pattern below on the 4 hour chart for AUD/JPY might be best described as the Niagara Falls pattern. It arises when lots of fund managers all head for the same exit doors at the same time. Click to enlarge: ...
- External links 2009-10-29
- Wall Street Puts Prices Up to Hold a Sale
- Clive Corcoran submits: Equity price behavior violates the simple theory of supply and demand so beloved by classical economics. Under the normal assumptions, the demand for anything is functionally related to price with the expectation that lower prices will lead to greater demand and higher prices will lead to less...
- External links 2009-05-17
- Bank Stress Tests and the Art of Financial Spinning
- Clive Corcoran submits: The leaks yesterday regarding the stress tests and how they impact on Bank of America BAC are a wonderful example of good spinning whether by design or by accident. The first reports were greeted with a bout of selling in the pre-market and lots of earnest bloggers...
- External links 2009-05-06
- Tax Breaks for Britain's Masses: Will Trickle Up Economics Work?
- Clive Corcoran submits: According to press reports in the UK this weekend, the government is about to launch an aggressive fiscal stimulus package designed to enable the UK economy to spend its way back to prosperity. It appears from leaks to the Sunday press that Value Added Tax, the...
- External links 2008-11-24
- The Diminishing Safe Haven Matrix
- Clive Corcoran submits: It would be prudent to watch the US Dollar Index closely in coming sessions, and the most useful indicator which can be traded is the ETF that represents a bearish view on the Dollar Index, [[UDN]]. Monday's drop of the US currency against many major currencies...
- External links 2008-11-26
- Is the Financials' Business Model Broken?
- Clive Corcoran submits: There is mounting evidence to suggest that the business model for financial services firms, in particular the broker/dealers and money center banks, has been undergoing a massive transformation in recent months and according to some commentators and analysts is now "broken". Alan "Ace" Greenberg,...
- External links 2008-12-10
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