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- The Great American Short: Capital One
- Colin Peterson submits: I am officially bearish on Capital One COF. Big lenders — like American Express AXP, Bank of America BAC, Citigroup C and even the retailer Target TGT— have begun tightening standards for applicants and are culling their portfolios of the riskiest customers. Capital One, another big...
- External links 2008-10-29
- Looking to Short the Mexican Peso Despite the Drawbacks
- Colin Peterson submits: I have been looking at shorting the Mexican Peso. I would do it via FXM, the CurrencyShares Mexican Peso Trust. The expense ratio of 0.4% is a tailwind for the trade. Shorting pesos does have a big carrying cost of almost 7%. That is a disincentive,...
- External links 2009-10-12
- What Are Georgia Gulf Shareholders Thinking?
- Colin Peterson submits: Let's talk more about the bond funds that now own Georgia Gulf Corp GGC.FMR Fidelity is the largest holder and owns 8,986,271 shares which is 27.286%.Capital World Investors owns 8,770,360 shares which is 26.6%Pioneer High Yield Fund has 3,374,442 shares or 10.23%,...
- External links 2009-10-16
- Georgia Gulf Amends Registration Statement Again to Keep New Shares Off the Market
- Colin Peterson submits: Georgia Gulf GGC got creamed again Wednesday, down 5%. Olin OLN was down 2.4%. I have been selling GGC outright in addition to the pair position I have.They amended their registration statement for the new shares (released a new S-1/A) again Wednesday. by Colin Peterson
- External links 2009-10-23
- Olin's Earnings Look Perfect for Georgia Gulf Pair Trade
- Colin Peterson submits: Olin Corp OLN just put out their third quarter earnings press release. The results are perfect for our long-Olin / short-Georgia Gulf GGC pair trade. Olin has two segments: Chlor-Alkali chemicals and Winchester ammunition.GGC has two segments: Chlor-Alkali chemicals and Royal Group vinyl products. I am short...
- External links 2009-10-27
- Shorting Winnebago, Realty Income: Not a Good Idea
- Colin Peterson submits: I mentioned Winnebago WGO as a possible short. Their reports disclose a large potential liability (>$100MM) for repurchase of recreation vehicles. I asked investor relations whether that dollar amount was the total dollar amount of vehicles they could be required to repurchase, or if it was calculated...
- External links 2009-10-30
- Two Catalysts for Another Sharp Drop in Georgia Gulf
- Colin Peterson submits: After the big selloff on Friday when the registration statement for 30 million new Georgia Gulf GGC shares was approved, trading has slowed down, and the stock is hovering around 15. It seems like some of the bond funds haven't decided to sell their new shares...
- External links 2009-11-04
- Georgia Gulf: Bond Funds Asleep at the Switch
- Colin Peterson submits: I think I know why Georgia Gulf GGC has flatlined this week: the bond funds are asleep at the switch. Everyone with a clue sold out on Friday.This happens all the time. by Colin Peterson
- External links 2009-11-05
- A Careful Look at Georgia Gulf's Earnings
- Colin Peterson submits: Georgia Gulf GGC reported net income of $230.2 million for the third quarter of 2009. However, like sausage or legislation, you have to be very careful about what is going into this net income number.Specifically: In the third quarter...
- External links 2009-11-05
- Callon Petroleum: Locking in Today's Futures Prices Would Be Wise
- Colin Peterson submits: Callon Petroleum CPE is a small independent oil and gas company that engages in acquisition, exploration, development, and production in the onshore and offshore Gulf Coast region.The market cap is only $35 million, with an enterprise value adjusted of $234 million. Practically all of their debt...
- External links 2009-11-17
- Georgia Gulf Holders: Updated Trading Idea
- Colin Peterson submits: I forgot to mention in the report - the new equity is owned almost entirely by bond funds that exchanged their notes for equity in the restructuring.In exchange for each of the 2013 notes and 2014 notes, the holders got 47.30 shares of convertible preferred stock...
- External links 2009-10-06
- Georgia Gulf / Olin Make a Great Pair Trade
- Colin Peterson submits: I have been meaning to post about this for months; here it is.An extensive restructuring of Georgia Gulf Corporation (GGC $29) involving a distressed debt exchange, convertible preferred stock issuance, and a 25:1 reverse split has caused confusion and led to a huge mispricing of GGC...
- External links 2009-10-05
- St. Joe Deal Goes Sour
- Colin Peterson submits: Interesting news from St. Joe JOE: One of the recent mysteries at St. Joe is: What happened to this $130-million land deal earlier this fall for 67,365 acres of conservation land in Liberty, Jefferson, Gulf and Franklin counties? St. Joe terminated the sale but...
- External links 2008-11-18
- One Discouraging Thought on Ford's Business Plan
- Colin Peterson submits: I am not trading the automakers right now - there aren't any compelling misvaluations relative to the other industries where I am doing research. Plus, it is just too sad.At least Ford F is presenting a business plan now. This tidbit is discouraging: by Colin Peterson
- External links 2008-12-02
- Third Avenue Never Learned Their Lesson
- Colin Peterson submits: Look at this quote from the WSJ: Legendary fund manager Marty Whitman is pinning the blame squarely on an "irrational" stock market meltdown for this year's hefty losses at his Third Avenue Value fund. by Colin Peterson
- External links 2008-12-16
- St. Joe Sells Off More Land for Cheap
- Colin Peterson submits: More news from our friend St. Joe JOE: Jacksonville, Florida - (December 18, 2008) - The St. Joe Company JOE today said that it has closed the sales of 19,917 acres of non-strategic rural land in Liberty and Gulf Counties for an aggregate sales price...
- External links 2008-12-18
- The Forces of Deflation Are Stronger Than People Realize
- Colin Peterson submits: We need to figure out the inflation vs deflation debate. A few months ago, I decided that short term we would have deflation. I had bought long duration treasury TLT calls. Treasury yields have been crushed. I wish I had bought more. (The calls increased...
- External links 2008-12-19
- GM Equity Breakdown
- Colin Peterson submits: My understanding is that current/old [[GM]] equity, which has a $1B market cap, is going to - optimistically - inherit 1% of the new GM equity.That would value new GM equity at $100B. I'm not sure how much debt new GM will have but let's be...
- External links 2009-05-07
- Capital One's Accounting Gimmick
- Colin Peterson submits: Capital One Financial Corp. COF, an issuer of MasterCard and Visa credit cards, said on Friday U.S. credit card defaults fell in April, beating analyst expectations, as the company changed its customer bankruptcy accounting. [...] In a regulatory filing, the company said the annualized net charge-off...
- External links 2009-05-23
- Not Bullish on Natural Gas Just Yet
- Colin Peterson submits: The ratio of oil to natural gas is at its highest level since at least 1990 at 26.35.However, there is a glut of natural gas in storage, thanks to the recession and the immense amount of exploration during the energy bubble last year. by Colin Peterson
- External links 2009-08-24
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