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- How AIG Took Down Europe
- I have been trying to understand why the typically conservative European banks such as ING have been in dire need of capital. The real estate bubbles in Europe were significantly smaller than the ones in the US and many of the European banks never bought much of the toxic mortgage paper churned out by...
- External links 2008-10-21
- If You're Bearish: Time Has Run Out for a Rally
- The time has run out for a rally on the S&P 500, according to James Flanagan, head of Gann Global Financial. Flanagan uses a historical database of stock and commodity prices to analyze current moves in prices. His knowledge of market history is unsurpassed and he has been...
- External links 2009-02-19
- If You're Bullish: Time for a 70's Party
- Many traders have been following the 1974 analogy to the current market. The Dow Industrials have traded in a remarkably similar pattern to the Dow in the 1973 - 1974 time period. According to the analogy, the market is now due for a major advance of 50%...
- External links 2009-02-19
- Credit Thaw Foreshadows an Equity Rally
- So the bottom line is we're making loans. We want everybody to know it. I mean, we even have banners hanging on the outside of our branches, saying we're making loans. And so if you see somebody that says, they can't get a loan, give them my number. -- Kelly...
- External links 2009-02-08
- The GDP Deflator Actually Deflates
- After a brief bout of enthusiasm Friday morning, when GDP came in at -3.8% vs estimates of -5.5%, investors quickly realized that the majority of the "beat" came because of an inventory adjustment. Inventories grew $6 bil vs. a decline of $28 bil last quarter. That artificially "lifted"...
- External links 2009-02-02
- The Devil Is in the Bad Bank's Details
- Bank stocks rallied sharply yesterday morning on the news that the administration and Treasury are developing a "good bank/bad bank" concept. However, whether this rally is justified is all in the details of the plan, which no one knows yet. For many banks, the concept of a good...
- External links 2009-01-29
- Eight Mistakes That Caused the Financial Crisis
- Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder notes that six major human errors, all of which were highlighted and criticized at the time, caused the financial crisis. Blinder makes an important point and one that I hope the new administration takes to heart. The problems the US is experiencing right...
- External links 2009-01-28
- TCF Financial: Take That, Greenspan
- In an obvious reference to Alan Greenspan's loose monetary policy in 2002 and the mis-management of the money center banks and brokers, TCF Financial's TCB ("Takin' Care of Business") Chairman wrote this pointed paragraph in his earnings release yesterday see conference call transcript: "TCF did not engage...
- External links 2009-01-22
- Premium Multiples Being Drained from Wells Fargo
- The premium earnings and book value multiples that Wells Fargo WFC has enjoyed for the past decade are being drained from Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo's stock has always traded at approximately a 20% premium to the banking group because of its higher than average earnings growth, higher returns on equity,...
- External links 2009-01-18
- BofA This Time? Bailouts Have Reached a Level Beyond Absurdity
- "Anyone else have their hand out? - Lewis Black by ContraHour
- External links 2009-01-17
- The Government's Pouring Money Into a Bottomless Citi Pit
- There is nothing more difficult, more frustrating and more expensive than to keep a corpse from sinking" Peter Drucker In bailing out Citigroup C a second time (as you recall, Citigroup just received $25 billion from the TARP in October), the government has started the process of creating...
- External links 2008-11-25
- BofA, Wells Fargo: No Equity After Accounting for Bad Loans
- I have always had the suspicion that Wells Fargo's WFC loan values were inflated and wrote as much in January. Wells sits at ground zero of the housing implosion and the fact that their numbers held up so well was a mystery...unless they were very slow to take write...
- External links 2009-03-05
Additional Resources
- A Crude Sign of the Times
- The world has found the ceiling where demand destruction kicks into high gear. It's when a barrel of oil reaches about $125 - $135. You can see the signs of demand destruction everywhere - in economic reports, quarterly conference calls, even from the oil shipping companies. There is now an abundance...
- External links 2008-08-06
- Crude Oil: How Far Will It Fall?
- Market Folly submits: Contrahour has a very simple chart up showing the technical weakness crude is exhibiting. The chart implies that a re-test of the $100 is imminent. Notice how on the most recent test of $120 that oil is not springing off support as it should. Instead, it is...
- External links 2008-08-07
- Presidential Election: No Help for the Markets
- The market needs all the help it can get these days but it's not going to get any from the Presidential elections. I was hoping the market could get a boost from the promises of a new administration. However, the more I learn about our choices, the more confounding picking a...
- External links 2008-09-02
- Ten Banks That Will Be Hurt by the Takeover of Fannie and Freddie
- The government takeover of Fannie Mae FNM and Feddie Mac FRE should be a positive for most banks. The deal will lower mortgage rates and will also allow the Treasury Department to purchase mortgage-backed securities from firms in the open market. That will allow a lot of mortgage paper that is currently clogging the system to start...
- External links 2008-09-08
- IBD: 1930s DOW vs NASDAQ Correlation
- This weekend, Investors Business Daily re-published a chart comparing the NASDAQ since 2000 to the Dow Jones Industrials from the 1930s. I had stopped using the chart because the Dow staged a much more linear recovery in the 1930s compared the choppy and meandering NASDAQ. However, the correlation worked well...
- External links 2008-10-13
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