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- Spreading Currency Crises: The Role Of Economic Interdependence
- This paper analyzes how the mutual dependence of private sector expectations in different countries on one another influences the stability of fixed exchange rate regimes. The crisis probabilities of countries trading with another are interdependent because wage setters react to an imminent loss of international competitiveness stemming from an increase...
- White papers 2002-08-01
Additional Resources
- Crisis in Competitive Versus Monopolistic Banking Systems
- This paper studies a monetary, general equilibrium economy in which banks exist because they provide intertemporal insurance to risk-averse depositors. A "banking crisis" is defined as a case in which banks exhaust their reserve assets. Under different model specifications, the banking industry is either a monopoly bank or a competitive...
- White papers 2003-09-01
- IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework
- This paper presents an analytical framework for considering the role of IMF-supported programs in preventing crises, particularly capital account crises. The model builds upon the global games framework to establish a unique relationship between the crisis probability and the parameters of the program, which is assumed to be negotiated between...
- White papers 2006-06-01
- Financial Regulation and Supervision after the Crisis: The Role of the Federal Reserve
- At the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 54th Economic Conference, Chatham, MassachusettsOctober 23, 2009 The theme of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's Economic Conference this year–reevaluating regulatory, supervisory, and central banking policies in the wake of the crisis–is certainly timely. Not much more than a year ago, we and...
- News items 2009-10-23
- Crises in Competitive Versus Monopolistic Banking Systems
- Article studies a monetary, general equilibrium economy in which banks exist because they provide intertemporal insurance to risk-averse depositors. A "banking crisis" is defined as a case in which banks exhaust their reserve assets. Under different model specifications, the banking industry is either a monopoly blank or a competitive banking...
- White papers 2003-09-01
- Crisis Communication Planning: Organizing and Completing A Plan That Works
- Whether big or small, no organization should be without a crisis communications plan. There are many aspects to being prepared for a crisis, many of which, frankly, are not worth preparing for in advance, either because of their low probability of occurrence alien abduction of your entire management team, or...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- The Ten Steps of Crisis Communications
- Very few crises are total surprises. Usually, key executives are privy to information which suggests the possibility or probability of crisis and this is the absolute latest point at which contingency planning should start. This article discusses the ten steps of crisis communications. Some of these are- Identify crisis communications...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- Postal Crisis: Can Reform Be Achieved This Time Around?
- Stung by the very real prospect of a double-digit, across-the-board rate hike by summer 2002-plus the probability that the USPS Board of Governors will vote to override the Postal Rate Commission and implement an immediate hike for many classes within the next few months-- magazine publishers and other mailers are...
- Research articles 2001-04-01
- Football: Arsenal face defence crisis as six are charged
- ARSENAL WERE left with just two senior defenders free from the imminent probability of suspension after an unprecedented six team members were charged by the Football Association yesterday. The London club were also charged with failing to control their players in the wake of the unseemly finale...
- Research articles 2003-09-25
- Northern Rock: Darling's crisis
- THE increasing probability that Northern Rock will be nationalised, conceded today by the Government, is a shameful failure for the Chancellor, Alistair Darling. The City now believes that, with the bids from Virgin and elsewhere starting to lose credibility, the Government will be forced to step in...
- Research articles 2007-12-01
- The Contribution of Domestic and External Factors to Emerging Market Devaluation Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach
- This paper, a modified "early warning system" EWS approach is developed to identify the roles of domestic and external factors in emerging market crises. Several probit models of financial crises were estimated for 26 emerging market countries. These models were used to identify the separate contributions to the probabilities of...
- White papers 2001-08-01
- Taking Improbable Events Seriously: An Interview with the Author of ‘The Black Swan'
- The author of The Black Swan explains why the rarity and unpredictability of certain events does not make them unimportant. The scholar, trader, and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb brings a decidedly contrarian view to the world of finance, statistics, and risk. In 2007, he published...
- Articles 2009-01-12
- Iraq Could Delay Peak Oil a Decade
- This is a guest post by Stuart Staniford, former Oil Drum staff member. It was originally posted in Stuart's blog Early Warning . Historical annual Iraqi oil production, together with linear implementation of Iraqi capacity growth plan...
- News items 2010-01-06
- Why Forecasts Don't Work in Finance
- "Finance is an area that's dominated by rare events. The tools we have in quantitative finance do not work in what I call the 'Black Swan' domain," said author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb earlier this year. Events in the financial...
- Blog posts 2008-09-16
- Decision-making under Pressure
- When an important decision must be made in a high-pressure situation, it is natural to worry about making a "bad" or "wrong" decision. Most people prefer to have sufficient time to analyze a situation and consider the alternatives. In a high-pressure situation, however, time is often a luxury they cannot...
- Articles 2007-10-12
- Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence
- The paper uses cross-country panel data to examine contagion across banking systems in developed and developing countries. Particular attention is paid to the construction of the cross-country sample: matching-method techniques are used to construct a suitable control-group sample analogue to the set of crisis countries to accurately quantify the probability...
- White papers 2003-02-01
- Trichet Warns Banks Risk Addiction to Support
- By Krista Hughes and Edward Taylor FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Banks risk becoming addicted to cheap central bank cash used to fight the financial crisis and must prepare for its eventual withdrawal, the head of the ECB warned at a Frankfurt banking conference on Friday. Financiers from the head of Deutsche...
- News items 2009-11-20
- For King and country
- Some very radical prescriptions for dealing with the banking sector to avoid another financial crisis of the magnitude of the one just experienced are flowing in the UK from the most authoritative of sources. That the UK is producing the most revolutionary of responses perhaps isn't surprising, given how badly...
- News items 2009-10-20
- Facing Ambiguous Threats
- The Idea in Brief Are you dismissing small signals that may portend danger to your business? Ignore these ambiguous threats, and you could imperil your company. Pharmaceutical giant Merck discovered this firsthand when it downplayed early unclear...
- Articles 2008-03-10
- Dubai debt fears threaten credit crunch 2 — and RBS is exposed
- The spectre of "Financial Crisis 2" continued to loom over global markets yesterday after Dubai's revelation that it may not be able to meet its debt obligations. Stock markets in Asia and the United States fell sharply while the dollar and Japanese yen rose as investors shifted their money to...
- News items 2009-11-27
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