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- Since When Does the 10-Year Yield Move Inversely to the S&P?
- David Goldman submits: If conventional wisdom applied–namely that the stock market is driven by prospects of economic recovery–we never, never would see this kind of weirdness: by David Goldman
- External links 2009-11-17
- If Wal-Mart Isn't Recovering, How Can the U.S. Economy?
- David Goldman submits: Bloomberg today: Aug. 13 Bloomberg — Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, reported second-quarter profit that exceeded some analysts’ estimates after managing inventory to lower costs. Comparable-store sales trailed the company’s forecast. by David Goldman
- External links 2009-08-13
- Mini-Bubble in Toxic Assets
- David Goldman submits: TALF and PPIP asset-buying programs, I noted Aug. 2, have pushed up asset banks and made bank equity look frothy. Even the dicier parts of Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) are showing exceptional performance recently. Roughly two-thirds of a typical CMBS pool is rated AAA, which...
- External links 2009-08-11
- Betrayed By Buffett? No Need to Be Shocked, The Game Is Indeed Rigged
- David Goldman submits: Just a reminder: back in January, I said that financial equity was “the hottest ticket in town.” Here’s another sign of banana-republicization of the United States. Under the headline “Buffett’s Betrayal,” Reuters’ blogger Rolfe Winkler has a poignant comment this morning about Warren Buffett:...
- External links 2009-08-06
- Banks Just Keep Getting Frothier
- David Goldman submits: Banks are getting frothy, I offered on July 15 before decamping for Italy. I spoke at a conference on ethics and financial markets sponsored by the Instituto Bruno Leoni in Rome, of small interest to this blog’s readers. Since then banks have outperformed the S&P 500,...
- External links 2009-08-02
- Banks are Already Getting Frothy
- David Goldman submits: It’s still asset prices. The more recent 2007 AAA vintage of subprime-backed securities — the real top of the market garbage — had a price pop yesterday in sympathy with bank stocks. ABX Index for 2007-2 Vintage AAA’s Backed by Subprime Mortgages from Markit...
- External links 2009-07-15
- Citigroup Stock: Top and Bottom Lines
- David Goldman submits: Citigroup C options have become very expensive in the leadup to preferred conversion July 28. Note that the gap click on chart to enlarge between implied volatility (now around 100%) and empirical volatility (at only 50%) is the widest in quite some time. That suggests that...
- External links 2009-07-15
- Bring Out Your Dead; Bank Zombies Will Eat Them
- David Goldman submits: As I predicted last March, American banks are hoarding rather than divesting the so-called toxic assets. The volume of trading in non-agency mortgage backed securities is considerably lower than many traders might have expected. That makes the stabilization of asset prices along with the stabilization of...
- External links 2009-07-14
- Bank Mini-Rally: All About Asset Prices
- David Goldman submits: Commercial mortgage-backed securities have shown some improvement just in time for bank second-quarter earnings. The improvement is modest, but it suggests that even the single-A rated tranches of CMBX deals are worth something, which is a less-than-catastrophic scenario. Here’s the performance of two of the Markit...
- External links 2009-07-14
- An Unpleasant Comparison: Demographics and Deflation
- David Goldman submits: Back during Japan’s lost decade of 1990-2000 (the first lost decade, that is), Japan’s population had just began to age dramatically. In 1990 the elderly dependency ratio stood at 17%, but it had risen to 25% by 2000. As the Japanese aged, their appetite for savings...
- External links 2009-07-09
- Divesting Bank Stocks: Always Too Early
- David Goldman submits: On July 18, 2007, I went on Larry Kudlow’s CNBC show to warn that a “trillion-dollar AAA asset bubble” threatened the banking system, warning investors to get out of financial stocks. I was much too early. by David Goldman
- External links 2009-08-16
- Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation?
- David Goldman submits: The chart below click to enlarge shows the SPX vertical scale vs the dollar bullish ETF UUP horizontal scale for the year to date: Fully 80% of the movement in the S&P can be explained by the movement in the dollar index. by...
- External links 2009-08-22
- 10-Year Treasury Yield Is the Giveaway
- David Goldman submits: We have had the longest winning streak on the S&P in three years, and gold hits new records every day — and the 10-year yield has fallen in the course of the week. That’s not a dog that didn’t bark, but a dog that did an...
- External links 2009-11-11
- Economy Watch: 'Stiggling' Our Way to Socialism
- David Goldman submits: I propose a neologism, “to stiggle,” meaning to make uneconomic loans for political reasons, in honor of Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz. If only we had nationalized the banks, he complains, we would have been able to force the banks to make uneconomic loans that they did...
- External links 2009-11-01
- Main Street Seeing Worst Credit Crunch Ever
- David Goldman submits: Away from the too-pig-too-fail bailouts and subsidized sectors of the economy, the credit crunch is getting worse, not better. by David Goldman
- External links 2009-10-29
- Asset Bubble Bursting
- David Goldman submits: The following chart (the price of a derivative contract based on single-A rated commercial mortgage backed securities as provided by Markit Partners) speaks for itself click to enlarge: As defaults on commercial mortgages rise, the mini-bubble in toxic waste assets deflates. Note that the...
- External links 2009-10-27
- When Volcker Saved the Dollar
- David Goldman submits: An important anniversary slipped by this week: the fortieth anniversary of Paul Volcker’s dramatic tightening of credit on Oct. 6, 1979, after the dollar went into free-fall on foreign exchange markets. Inflation had crossed into double digits after four years of mismanagement by the Carter administration....
- External links 2009-10-09
- The Arithmetic of Gold: Why Its Price Has No Ceiling
- David Goldman submits: What’s the price of the last ticket on the last train out of Paris on the night the Germans march in? Whoever is carrying the most cash will get it, and that will be the price. Robert Merton, the great finance theorist, showed that in a...
- External links 2009-10-07
- Japanese Banks: It Ain't So If You Say It Ain't So
- David Goldman submits: When is a non-performing loan not a non-performing loan? When you say it isn’t! Bloomberg reports: Oct. 6 Bloomberg — Japanese banks’ bad loans won’t be driven higher by a proposed moratorium on debt payments by struggling small companies, said Financial Services Minister Shizuka...
- External links 2009-10-06
- The U.S's Permanent Depression
- David Goldman submits: Permanent depression is the subject of my essay today at Asia Times. I review the sources of funding for Treasury deficit and show how it is choking off credit to the productive economy. The conclusion: The parallels between America in 2009 and Japan...
- External links 2009-10-05
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