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- The Fed Fears Deflation More Than Inflation
- In his interesting post, Scott Sumner argues that deflation is more likely than inflation, and that if it occurred, it would damage the economy by effectively raising labor costs to firms, forcing them to lay off more people and worsening our unemployment problems. In contrast, I view deflation as less...
- Blog posts 2009-06-29
Additional Resources
- Deflation or Delusion?
- Deflation, or rather that word, has given market commentators something they have not had since the "New Economy." Articles have been spawned on the fear of deflation in a short period of time than would be the case with a major national disaster. The deflation focus has now been used...
- White papers 2003-05-30
- Why We Should Fear Deflation?
- After more than sixty years, deflation has reappeared as something to worry about. Next to no one had seen actual falls in the price level as even a remote possibility. Given that deflation is back on the agenda, should it be feared? Perhaps we should not worry about deflation because...
- White papers 1998-04-01
- Deflation is Our Biggest Worry -- Not Inflation
- Many economists are worried about high inflation over the next few years. This is based on a misdiagnosis of the current economic crisis. Although the recession officially began in December 2007, until last August the damage was mostly confined to housing and finance. In August 2008, the recession spread to...
- Blog posts 2009-06-26
- Deflation: The Fed's Ugly Pit Bull
- Mark Caffee submits: If you are unfamiliar with deflation, you are not alone. In fact, the past 80 years has been the antithesis of deflation.....inflation. Inflation is as American as apple pie. A right of passage from one party to another, or one Federal Reserve Chairman to...
- External links 2008-11-04
- Who's Afraid of Deflation?
- We think deflation fears are overblown, but it never hurts to ask, "What if?" When we look to stock market history, does deflation deserve its reputation as a stock market suppressant, or is it getting a bad rap? The stock market posts above-average returns when consumer prices are relatively stable....
- White papers 2003-08-01
- A Possible Scenario for Deflation or Hyperinflation
- In and amidst the developing credit crunch, the fear of deflation and hyper inflation are both present and increasing. Like a ship taking on water and rolling from side to side, the global economies are more and more swinging between deflation risk and hyper inflation risk. Volatility on commodity, financial...
- External links 2009-02-10
- TIPS Erase First Deflation Panic
- Dr. Duru submits: TIP, the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund, made a fresh 6-month high on Thursday. TIPS Treasury Inflation Protected Securities provide protection against inflation by indexing the value of the underlying bonds to the consumer price index (CPI). This 6-month high is an important milestone. Not only...
- External links 2009-03-26
- Investors weigh risks of inflation and deflation
- Rising gold prices and falling government bond yields reflect investors' uncertainty over whether inflation or deflation is the threat to fear for price stability. This week's data should provide fuel for both sides of that debate. UK inflation data for September, due out tomorrow, should show a headline consumer prices...
- News items 2009-10-11
- You Should Be Worried About Inflation, Not Deflation, Says Paul Kasriel
- Northern Trust economist Paul Kasriel, who is usually right, concludes that you should now worry a lot more about inflation than deflation. Paul thus sides with John Hussman, Niall Ferguson, and others - and against Paul Krugman, who thinks all this talk of inflation is just Republican fear-mongering. Kasriel's forecast,...
- White papers 2009-06-15
- Deflation fear may be deflated.
- Jul 15, 2003 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) Base metal prices continue to rally as the result of increased optimism about the global economic outlook. On 15 July 2003, the copper price rose to just under a two-year high, lead reached an...
- Research articles 2003-07-15
- Japanese economy hit by 'double nightmare'
- With potentially the most momentous general election for five decades less than 48 hours away, the Japanese economy has plunged into the double nightmare of runaway deflation and soaring joblessness. The Japanese unemployment rate hit a record 5.7 per cent in July, although many analysts believe that the official number...
- News items 2009-08-28
- Still time left for curtain calls.
- Back in 2003, the Fed cut rates to just 1 per cent. The background to this extraordinary policy response was the widespread fear that the US economy was heading for Japanese-style deflation as the internet, hi-tech and asset bubbles of the late 1990 Back in...
- Research articles 2006-03-02
- Economy of errors
- A cold wind from the future blows into my bedroom, more often than not during those midnight hours when fear dominates and hope retreats to a netherworld. This wind is a spectre, an oracle of darkness and eventual death, not easily dismissed. Once merely a whisper, its decibels intensify with...
- News items 2009-10-27
- Good News: Treasury Bond Yields Are Rising
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Treasury bond yields are up since their all-time lows of late last year. Rising bond yields in the current environment is unequivocally a positive sign. Nominal yields have risen much more than real yields on TIPS, which means that investors have lost a good...
- External links 2009-02-26
- Foreign Debt is the Biggest Issue | BTalk Australia
- (19min 11) On today’s BTalk Australia economist Nicholas Gruen from Lateral Economics gives his view on the economy. His biggest concern is foreign debt and the possibility of capital flight. He suggests why the economic downturn in Australia is different to many other countries overseas and, therefore, requires a different...
- Blog posts 2009-03-23
- Investing Lessons from the '70s Crash
- Is the rebound for real, or is it a bear trap? Have we been fundamentally wrong about stocks as investments? For answers, we asked pros who have been through it all before. ...
- Articles 2009-04-21
- The San Diego Union-Tribune Don Bauder Column.
- By Don Bauder, The San Diego Union-Tribune Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News Jan. 4--Don't kick tires. Kick auto executives in the shins. If you've ever wondered how deflation gets rolling, take a look at the auto industry. There is...
- Research articles 2003-01-04
- Why Gold is Rising (Hint: It's NOT Inflation!)
- With the same fervor that causes pundits to prematurely declare the death of the dollar, so too are worries about future inflation bubbling up. You hear people saying, "of course inflation is coming, just look at the soaring price of gold as an indication!" Sorry to disappoint, but but as...
- Blog posts 2009-10-12
- Be careful chasing yields when interest rates are low
- The government lowered the target interest rate on federal funds to 1 percent from 1.25 percent last week. It was debated for the last month whether the Federal Reserve would cut the rate by .25 percent or .50 percent, and secondly, was the cut because the economic recovery isn't producing...
- Research articles 2003-06-30
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