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- Better Than the Depression? Don't Kid Yourselves
- Devin Hobbes submits: I previously wrote about how we got into this mess here. A number of articles have since sprung up, comparing 1929 and the 1930s to now, and arguing that we shouldn't be that worried. Things will be tough, they say, but they won't be depression tough. I...
- External links 2008-11-26
- Frontline's Earnings Do Not Paint a Clear Picture
- Devin Hobbes submits: Frontline FRO reported its earnings for the third quarter 2008 today. I wrote about a week ago that I would be surprised if the report were not a good one. In the end, whether the report was a good one depends on how you look at it.Earnings...
- External links 2008-11-30
- Does Technical Analysis Work?
- Devin Hobbes submits: There are three general opinions of technical analysis: (1) it is a science that works, (2) it's a pseudoscience that works because its practitioners all do the same thing when a chart is a certain way, or (3) it's a bunch of hogwash.I'm somewhere between (2) and...
- External links 2008-12-10
- Analyzing Dividend Capture Strategies
- Devin Hobbes submits: A popular strategy among those investors who trade actively is dividend capture. There are several different ways to implement it, and I would like to go through some of them.The last time to buy a stock and be eligible to receive its dividend is the day before...
- External links 2009-01-15
- What's So Bold and Swift About the Stimulus Package?
- Devin Hobbes submits: Are the House Democrats serious about fixing the economy, or are they just morons? The Wall Street Journal estimates that about 12% of the spending will go to anything that might produce jobs, but the rest of it is waste, including $54 billion for Federal programs that...
- External links 2009-02-02
- Going Long on TBT
- Devin Hobbes submits: I've been watching Treasury yields for a while, looking for a sign that the bubble has burst. It looks to me like it might have. I'm certainly late to the party, as the Ultra Short Lehman 20yr+ ETF TBT is up considerably from its lows. However, I...
- External links 2009-02-09
- Why I Sold My Calls This Morning
- Devin Hobbes submits:Market sentiment changed dramatically since I pondered about the latest rally (the bottom or just another bear market sucker's rally?) just as few days ago. After yesterday's (3/19/09) close, with the S&P 500 up around 18% in a week's worth of trading, the bulls seemed to outnumber the...
- External links 2009-03-19
- Another AIG Scandal?
- Devin Hobbes submits: Remember how in early March the banks, starting with Citi's C purposefully leaked memo, announced that they had operating profits? This was the beginning of a rally of over 20% on the S&P 500, which might now be over.Zero Hedge reports that these profits everyone thought marked...
- External links 2009-03-29
Additional Resources
- Shipping Stocks: I'd Wait To Buy Frontline and Overseas
- Devin Hobbes submits: Over the next several years, as emerging economies continue to grow and developed economies hopefully get back on track, demand for oil should continue to rise. Frontline, Ltd. FRO and Overseas Shipholding Group OSG are two of the largest crude tanker operators in the world. Both companies...
- External links 2008-08-08
- A Lazy ETF Portfolio Underweighting the U.S.
- Devin Hobbes submits: Mohamed El-Erian, who managed Harvard University's investments and is now at PIMCO, has been in the news recently recommending long term investors to underweight U.S. securities. He suggests the following asset allocation:US Stocks 15%Developed ex-US stocks 15%Emerging Stocks 12%US Bonds 5%International Bonds 9%Real Estate 6%Commodities 11%Inflation Protected...
- External links 2008-08-15
- Interested in Bank of America? Consider the Preferred Shares
- Devin Hobbes submits: If you are confident that Bank of America BAC won't go out of business, won't eliminate its dividend, and that its share price will eventually recover, you may want to consider buying its convertible preferred shares (BAC-PL) to wait out the storm.Bank of America's convertible preferred (Series...
- External links 2008-08-19
- Indexing Is Great, But Don't Forget to Diversify Your Holdings
- Devin Hobbes submits: A real estate boom spurred by unreasonably low interest rates and the collapse of lending standards leads to a bubble, which bursts. Over leveraged financial firms face staggering losses and struggle to raise capital. The government tries desperately to to prop them up as losses mount. ...
- External links 2008-08-26
- Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?
- Devin Hobbes submits: I wrote earlier that I'd once again look at Potash of Saskatchewan POT if it got to $150. It was just over $151 today. Since I first wrote about POT at the end of July, a number of negative events mentioned as risks in that earlier post...
- External links 2008-09-04
- Holding Multinationals? Look Out for the Rising Dollar
- Devin Hobbes submits: The dollar has rallied sharply since mid-July. Technical trader Adam Hewison, over at INO.com, has had a buy signal since June. As I'm writing, the US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) has hit a new intra-day, 52 week high. It's back at levels not seen since September 2007.The Euro,...
- External links 2008-09-12
- Why Is Merrill Lynch Trading Significantly below BAC's $29 Offer?
- Devin Hobbes submits: A reader sent me an email, asking me to explain to him why Merrill Lynch MER is trading around $19 per share when Bank of America BAC offered to buy MER for $29 a share. Is it the short sellers? Well, maybe, if they're driving down...
- External links 2008-09-16
- GE: Struggling Short-Term, But Should Do Fine Long-Term
- Devin Hobbes submits: General Electric GE is another of my holdings that's been in free fall. Though it's in positive territory today as I'm writing, it's trending down for a few reasons. GE has no exposure to US mortgages. However, GE has exposure mortgage assets outside the US. These are...
- External links 2008-09-16
- 2 Good Stocks I'm Considering Buying on This Plunge
- Devin Hobbes submits: The recent market plunge is almost certainly creating investing opportunities. Since pretty much everything is getting cheaper, it can be difficult sorting out the good stuff from the bad.Anheuser-Busch BUD and UST UST are two companies that are probably in the good category. I'm putting them on...
- External links 2008-09-18
- Procter & Gamble Plans to Sell Folgers to Smuckers: Win-Win?
- Devin Hobbes submits: I mentioned Procter & Gamble's PG all stock sale of Folgers to Smuckers SJM in my bullish case for PG that was posted in July. The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. As the timeline and details of the deal are not...
- External links 2008-09-23
- Some Crazy Deals, If You Have an Appetite for Risk
- Devin Hobbes submits: As panic sellers and shorts drive the market lower, be on the lookout for pricing craziness on deep in the money LEAP calls on stocks that are especially volatile. It may be possible to buy a stock and sell a deep in the money covered call for...
- External links 2008-10-10
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