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- GM Job Loss: Bogus Economics
- If General Motors GM is allowed to fail, won’t we lose three million jobs? That multi-million job loss comes from both GM’s own employees, plus the suppliers and dealers. However, the economics behind that idea is pretty bogus. The number of auto jobs we have is tied to...
- External links 2008-11-16
- Mixed Regulatory Messages Slowing Community Bank Lending
- The newspapers report that the chief banking regulators are urging banks to lend money. But the front-line bank examiners, the men and women who work face to face with actual bankers, are giving different orders. They are telling banks to build up capital and liquidity, which can only...
- External links 2008-12-27
- The Other Side of Bonuses
- So a company has lost a bazillion dollars, leading the government to pump in money to mitigate "systemic risk." Should the executives get bonuses? The answer is not as obvious as you might think. Consider a bank that gave its branch managers performance targets. One manager coached her employees...
- External links 2009-03-17
- GM Debt Recovery Paints A Scary Picture for Private Investors
- The General Motors GM debt-for-equity deal reveals a genuine danger to private investors. If you are considering investing in some other turnaround, be very careful if Uncle Sam might get involved. An editorial in Thursday's Wall Street Journal presents some estimates of how much different creditors to GM will receive....
- External links 2009-05-01
- Genentech's 'Good' Subsidy Hardly Helps Economic Development
- Oregon Business Magazine quoted me in its article about two subsidies, one that clearly failed and one that, they say, worked. If you think these things ever work, here are the facts cited in the article regarding the "good" subsidy. Genentech DNA received over $32 million of incentives, in exchange...
- External links 2009-05-31
- Consumers: Saving Trumps Spending
- Consumers continue to increase their savings. Here's the recent behavior. (Note that the first spike, in mid-2008, came from the stimulus checks.) by Dr. Bill Conerly
- External links 2009-06-03
- Financial Stress Is Moderating, At Least By Some Measures
- The measures of financial stress based on short-term markets are looking much better, though bond-market related measures are slow to improve. The most popular measure of stress is the TED spread, which is the difference between interest rates on inter-bank loans (LIBOR) and Treasury Bills. We're getting...
- External links 2009-07-05
- Housing Starts Still Weak - Despite Positive Headlines
- These guys who write newspaper headlines are getting me down. Here's the Wall Street Journal's online head: "Housing Starts Jumped in June."Bloomberg proclaims: "Housing Starts in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Highest Level in Seven Months" by Dr. Bill Conerly
- External links 2009-07-19
- Starbucks' Push for Efficiency
- Starbucks SBUX is trying to help its staff members be more efficient. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, they are using old fashioned time and motion studies. A barista makes a latte, while someone watches with a stopwatch. Early results are positive, but some baristas...
- External links 2009-08-07
Additional Resources
- Recession? Not This Year
- Wall Street's rule of thumb, that recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, is not technically correct. But it's not a bad rule of thumb. Certainly there's no recession when the economy is growing substantially, even if the growth is below trend. That's where we are today. The latest...
- External links 2008-07-31
- Retail Sales Are Weak, But No Towel Being Thrown In
- "Consumers are just throwing in the towel," according to Global Insight economist Brian Bethune. I like a nice quote, but Bethune displays utter ignorance in his search for news exposure. Let's take a look at yesterday's retail sales report: The drop in retail sales amounted to one tenth of one...
- External links 2008-08-15
- Four Reasons We Can't Call It a Recession - Yet
- If I were an economic advisor to a presidential candidate, I couldn't say it: The economy may not be in recession. The generally acknowledged decider is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit organization. They look at four coincident indicators, plus other indicators...
- External links 2008-08-15
- Recession? Different Method, Same Answer
- Ed Leamer of UCLA has a very interesting discussion that relates directly to my recent post asserting that we probably weren't in a recession. Here's the abstract of his paper: Monthly US data on payroll employment, civilian employment, industrial production and the unemployment rate are used to define a simple...
- External links 2008-08-16
- The Home Sales Blip
- The headline sounds like good news--"Home Sales Up"--but there is no joy in Mudville. The "increase" was really a blip in technical jargon. In reality, sales are still low. The "inventory" was said to have risen, but remember that the number of existing not new homes for sale is not...
- External links 2008-08-25
- Home Sales & True Inventory: No Good News
- The headline sounds like good news--"Home Sales Up"--but there is no joy in Mudville. The "increase" was really a blip in technical jargon. In reality, sales are still low. The "inventory" was said to have risen, but remember that the number of existing not new homes for...
- External links 2008-08-25
- New Home Market Improving Faster Than Expected
- The latest month's news isn't stunning, but the recent trend has been better than I expected. Sales of new homes were, depending on your favorite headline, either up, or lower than expectations. Actually, the change in home sales was trivial. The good news, however, is that we are working...
- External links 2008-08-26
- Will the Bailout Alleviate the Housing Crisis?
- Is it going to help solve our housing crisis? Some analysts think that Fan FNM/Fred's FRE borrowing costs will not drop, much of which will be passed on to new mortgage borrowers. Let's see if that looks like it will solve the housing problem: Gee, it doesn't look...
- External links 2008-09-10
- Housing on the Slide
- Calculated Risk has a good post about home prices, looking at prices from several different angles. All angles suggest that prices have a ways further to go before reaching "normal." Of course, there's no reason to expect any time series to get back to normal, but it's a good first...
- External links 2008-09-11
- How Wall Street's Crisis Impacts Main Street's Business
- What to make of the financial crisis? My first concern is Main Street business. Forgive me, but I don't get choked up when guys with multi-million dollar salaries hit the unemployment lines. It's sad, but not too sad. Probably a good time to pick up a beach house in the...
- External links 2008-09-16
- 3 Essential Books for Financial Crises
- This week's wild events have left me fielding many questions. I rely heavily on the following resources: Charles Kindleberger, Manias, Crashes and Panics: A History of Financial Crises, 1978. I taught from Kindleberger's International Economics, the standard textbook at the time (1970s when I was teaching). After his retirement, he...
- External links 2008-09-17
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