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- A Look at the S&P 500 and Earnings
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Here's a look at the S&P 500 (black line, left scale) over the last few years with its earnings (gold line, right scale). The two lines are scaled at 16 to 1, meaning, when the lines cross the market's P/E ratio is 16. I...
- External links 2009-04-28
- Will the S&P 500 Hold Up?
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: The S&P 500 is currently over 945. If it holds up, this will be the highest close since November 5, the day after election day. by Eddy Elfenbein
- External links 2009-06-01
- A Closer Look at the S&P 500's 200-DMA
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: One of the quick-and-dirty tools used to technical analysts is to see where a stock or index is compared with its average price over the past 200 days. This is an easy way to get a read of a stock’s momentum. Yesterday was...
- External links 2009-06-02
- Comparing Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices Over Time
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Here’s a look at the growth of the S&P 500 along with its dividends over the past 20 years. The S&P 500 is the black line and it follows the left scale, the dividends are the blue line and follow the right scale. The two scales...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Looking at Relative Strength by Industry Group
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Here's a look at the relative strength of the ten S&P 500 industry groups since the beginning of the year. I took each sector index and divided it by the S&P 500, and based that to 100 at the start of the year. by Eddy Elfenbein
- External links 2009-07-06
- Analysts Finally Raise Dismal Profit Estimates
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: The good news is that Wall Street is raising its earnings estimates. The bad news is that the old estimates were for incredibly lousy earnings. Now, they’re just expecting somewhat lousy earnings. Still! Wall Street firms raised forecasts on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index...
- External links 2009-07-27
- Stock Market's Total Return Outperforms Inflation by About 7% a Year
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Bear with me on this one. The long-term evidence suggests that the stock market’s total return outperforms inflation by about 7% a year or doubling in real terms every ten years. That’s of course an average—the stock market has been dead flat against inflation for 12...
- External links 2009-05-03
- Will Cyclicals Continue Their Lead?
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: One thing to point out about this rally is that it’s been hugely led by cyclicals. Since March 9, the S&P 500 is up 34% but the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) is up a stunning 98%. That’s a huge move for an index. Cyclicals have...
- External links 2009-05-04
- Friday Rallies Signal Confidence in Market
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: The S&P 500 has rallied for the last five straight Fridays. That's pretty impressive that there are buyers going into the weekend, and I think it signals some important confidence in the market. So what's the record for consecutive "up" Fridays? It turns...
- External links 2009-05-14
- Best Time to Invest? First Trading Day of the Month
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: So far this decade, the market hasn’t done very well except for one small phenomenon—the first trading day of the month. Through Thursday, the S&P 500 is down 39.5% for the decade. But the market has returned over 21% on the first day...
- External links 2009-05-23
- 2009 Earnings Estimates: A Moving Target
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Earlier this week, I mentioned that earnings have been running well ahead of expectations so far this earnings season. Of course, expectations were pretty low. For all of 2009, Wall Street now sees the S&P 500 earnings $59.80. If we continue to beat...
- External links 2009-07-29
- V-Shaped Recovery Could Be Coming After All
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: I often like to look at how the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index is performing relative to the S&P 500. The past year has been a dramatic ride. Cyclicals led the market down, the led them back up. Here's the CYC divided by the...
- External links 2009-09-28
- Becton Dickinson Impresses, but Moog Continues to Struggle
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Becton Dickinson BDX, which I like a lot, saw its earnings rise to $1.25 a share for its fiscal fourth quarter, which matched estimates. The company made $1.11 for last year’s fourth quarter. Wall Street expects earnings next year of $5.09, which works out to a...
- External links 2009-11-05
- Governments Panic Too
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Neil Barofsky’s report is out today and it says that the government gave away too much when AIG AIG went under. I can’t say I’m surprised, nor can I claim to be terribly upset. To me, the mystery is that some folks actually expected the government...
- External links 2009-11-17
- What Football Teaches Us About Risk Management
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Brian Burke runs the excellent Advanced NFL Stats blog. He combs through mountains of data to uncover interesting aspects of the game. Burke recently completed a big study looking at fourth downs and the advantages of going for it versus kicking or punting....
- External links 2009-09-17
- Explaining the Rally: Spreads Continue to Tighten
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: Want an explanation for the rally? Check out the dramatic widening and closing of the spread between long-term Treasuries and corporates. The gap is still over 300 points and it was often below 200 during 2004 to 2007. by Eddy Elfenbein
- External links 2009-08-05
- Looking at the S&P Over the Years
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: The great bull market began 27 years ago yesterday, and ended a little over nine years ago. Here's a look at the S&P 500 since then: by Eddy Elfenbein
- External links 2009-08-12
- Market?s Excessive P/E Ratio
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: There’s recently been some commentary on the stock market’s elevated P/E Ratio see here and here. I think this is a good instance where the P/E Ratio fails to tell us much. We have to remember that the P/E Ratio is an unusual...
- External links 2009-08-17
- Interesting Factoid: Market Gains When Gold Is Below $455
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: I was playing around with some data and I came with an interesting stat: All of the stock market’s gain since 1970 has come when the price of gold is below $455. OK, now let me explain a little. I took two monthly...
- External links 2009-08-20
- The Market, Valuation and Future Earnings
- Eddy Elfenbein submits: I was playing with some numbers I got off Robert Shiller’s website. I was curious to see historically how long it’s taken the market to earn back its value. The P/E ratio is concerned with past earnings, but I wanted to see how good the market...
- External links 2009-09-03
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