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- Commercial Real Estate: How This Bust Is Different
- Edward Harrison submits: The long-coming commercial real estate bust has arrived in the U.S. and elsewhere, a result of sky-high prices met by a severe downturn. Prices could only work in a best-case economic scenario and large busts are now coming (see my posts on Stuyvesant Town and Capmark...
- External links 2009-11-09
- Stephen Roach Sees W-Shaped Recovery for China
- Edward Harrison submits: The US is not the only place where a double dip downturn is to be feared. China has its own economic imbalances to deal with. Too much money is being thrown at the problem creating malinvestment and a bubble economy, shares having doubled this year...
- External links 2009-08-05
- Barclays and Protium - Back to the Future
- Edward Harrison submits: I am astounded at how quickly we have returned to the pre-crisis days of yore. Credit spreads are down, the stock market is up, volatility is down, earnings are up and bonuses are up. It looks like happy days are here again. But, I can’t help...
- External links 2009-09-20
- Too Much Risk in Equity Market
- Edward Harrison submits: Following up on my “Sell equities” post, I want to highlight a factoid from Friday’s David Rosenberg’s Breakfast with Dave distribution. Never before has the S&P 500 rallied 60% from a low in such a short time frame as six months. And never before have we seen...
- External links 2009-09-20
- Preposterous: FDIC to Get Credit from Banks?
- Edward Harrison submits: In the latest inexplicable move to extricate the U.S. banking system from crisis, the FDIC is reportedly close to asking the very banks it regulates for a loan to top up its balances. The plan is “strongly supported by bankers and their lobbyists” according to the New...
- External links 2009-09-22
- Faber: Doom, Gloom or Boom? How About All Three.
- Edward Harrison submits: How about all three. Faber released another provocative newsletter this month that has a little grist for investor of all stripes. Boom. His short-term outlook is bullish because he believes money-printing will underpin the market even after the 60% increase in the S&P 500 from March 2009...
- External links 2009-09-22
- Mobius Still Bullish on Emerging Markets
- Edward Harrison submits: Mark Mobius is one of the most famous Emerging Markets investors and right now he is bullish on Emerging Markets despite a huge rally in shares from late last year. Mobius turned bullish right as shares troughed and has remained so ever since. Mobius likes the so-called...
- External links 2009-09-23
- Singapore: Why Is Industrial Production Declining?
- Edward Harrison submits: Monday we learned that the Singapore PMI was much weaker than expected for September 2009, coming in at 50.6 versus 54.4 for August. While this demonstrates that the manufacturing sector there is still rising, it is doing so just barely. This was the lowest reading since...
- External links 2009-10-06
- Sweden Prepares for Financial Collapse in Latvia, Major Bank Losses at Home
- Edward Harrison submits: The following is my translation of a much-discussed article that appeared in Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet over the weekend. This information was being withheld from the public and leaked at an inopportune moment. Note that the Swedish government has secretly been preparing the banks for financial...
- External links 2009-10-06
- Reserve Bank of Australia Raises Rates - Will Others Follow?
- Edward Harrison submits: The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised rates by 25 basis points to cool down its economy. It will “gradually reduce stimulus” in anticipation of sustained recovery. Australia has probably been the major economy least affected by the global economic slowdown, so one would expect the RBA...
- External links 2009-10-07
- U.K. House Prices Rise Again - Still Lower than 2008 Levels
- Edward Harrison submits: The Halifax reports that UK house prices rose for the third consecutive month in September, up 1.6% from August levels. Key to the rise has been a lack of supply coupled with increased demand (100% mortgages have helped as well). Last week, Nationwide had pointed to...
- External links 2009-10-07
- Fed: Jawboning the Market?
- Edward Harrison submits: I tend to think so. Thursday, Ben Bernanke made what some media outlets are calling hawkish statements. This, combined with heavy currency intervention by Asian central banks, helped to strengthen the U.S. dollar. However one must ask if there is anything fundamental about these moves. Just...
- External links 2009-10-10
- Trade Flows in Flux: Is This Rebalancing?
- Edward Harrison submits: Paul Krugman has noticed that trade has absolutely collapsed with this economic downturn. It is worse than the Great Depression. Question: is this aiding global rebalancing? by Edward Harrison
- External links 2009-10-10
- Currencies Pegged to Dollar Under Pressure to Drop Peg
- Edward Harrison submits: There is an enormous dichotomy in foreign exchange markets that has wide-ranging implications for the global economy. In Europe, most currencies float freely against the U.S. dollar. In Asia and the Mideast, most do not. What this has meant in practice is two things....
- External links 2009-10-13
- Marc Faber: Dollar Weakness a Symptom of Inflation in the System
- Edward Harrison submits: Below are two videos from Marc Faber’s recent interview on Asia Confidential. In it, he takes questions from user emails in regards to the U.S. dollar, economic decline in the U.S. and gold as an investment. He sees a need for the U.S. to borrow increasing...
- External links 2009-10-14
- Roger Bootle: Banking Does Not Operate in Competitive Markets
- Edward Harrison submits: Roger Bootle sat down with the Telegraph and ran through a few themes in regards to the stock market, the financial crisis, government debt, currencies and compensation in the financial sector. He has a lot to say, in particular on banks, which he argues do not...
- External links 2009-10-14
- It's Time to Sell Equities and Look to These 3 Areas
- Edward Harrison submits: In late August, I wrote a post called “Getting bearish again” in which I said that the bear market rally I had anticipated back in March was long in the tooth. At the time, I mentioned 1026 on the S&P 500 as a sell signal. ...
- External links 2009-09-18
- U.S. Dollar Carry Trade
- Edward Harrison submits: One other reason to sell the dollar is interest rates. Why not borrow in dollars where interest rates are low and invest elsewhere where yields are high? This is what is known as the carry trade. In the past decade, the Japanese yen...
- External links 2009-09-18
- Fannie Mae: Latest Quarterly Results Convey Reckless Financing
- Edward Harrison submits: Fannie Mae FNM has the luxury of marking its accounts more accurately because they have no fear of being nationalized or going bust since they already have hit the wall. So when we read the latest quarterly results from Fannie Mae, we are not just seeing...
- External links 2009-08-07
- Thank Goodness: Judge Stops BAC / SEC Deal
- Edward Harrison submits: Thank goodness someone has some sense. Manhattan Federal District Court Judge Jed Rakoff refused to approve Monday’s Bank of America’s BAC deal with the SEC because it may be unfair to the public to accept the settlement. Bank of America was accused by the SEC of lying...
- External links 2009-08-07
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