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- How Will Hungary Shape Eastern European CDS Prices this Week?
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Hungary is in crisis mode today. While an IMF lifeline is negotiated, credit default swap prices for Hungary sovereign debt are set to fluctuate wildly, from a low of 420 basis points to a high of 600, and beyond. The rest of Eastern Europe waits with bated...
- External links 2008-10-26
- Fitch Downgrades Reaffirm the Case to Exit Eastern Europe
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Finally, the rating agencies are seeing the light. Perhaps belatedly, Fitch has downgraded its ratings for Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. The fact is that none of the economies of Eastern Europe ([[GUR]], IEER.LSE) have succeeded in completing the socialism-to-free market transition. On the contrary, virtually all former...
- External links 2008-11-10
- Political Risk Prices Indicating Sharp Fall in Emerging Markets
- Rakesh Saxena submits: The direction of credit default swap spreads is certainly pointing towards further potential downside in emerging market equities. But, more importantly, it is the state of the political risk and trade paper insurance marketplace which is now making a compelling case for another 25%-plus decline in junior...
- External links 2008-11-30
- GE at a Crossroads: Business Model Becoming Obsolete
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Last week, GE GE Money India decided to shut down 50% of its branch network, effectively abandoning lofty plans to aggressively expand its $1.1 billion retail lending portfolio; the company’s management did not disclose data on forecasted loan delinquencies in an environment where huge segments of India’s...
- External links 2008-12-07
- Ecuador Default: Sell Into Simon Bolivar's South America
- Rakesh Saxena submits: The sovereign debt market is still unable to appreciate the fact that President Rafael Correa's decision to formally default on its foreign obligations on Monday is rooted in ideology, not in any shortage of funds. The ideological premise, that Ecuador's borrowings from international lenders are tainted by...
- External links 2008-12-15
- ICICI Bank: Bellwether Emerging Market Short
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Noticeably, in its October 2008 Performance Review, ICICI IBN, India’s largest private bank, has not reconciled one key element included in its Credit Suisse CS - sponsored April 2008 analyst presentation: the size and health of India’s middle class. In actual fact, the key “consumption driver” (i.e....
- External links 2008-12-18
- The Real Crisis: Collapsing Capital Accumulation Process
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Private Capital needs to prosper in order to survive. Due to the inability of governments to alleviate widespread poverty, the domestic and global environment which created the compelling process of capital accumulation and profits following the Second World War had reached a peak, within the context of...
- External links 2009-02-09
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