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- No Inflationary Risk for the Eurozone
- Erwan Mahe submits: Illiquidity? That is the feeling interest rate markets in Europe gave us this morning, with a steep decline in futures prices dragging the Bobl (-50 cts) into our buy zone (115.50/115). by Erwan Mahe
- External links 2009-07-20
- Credit Contraction Continues in Europe
- Erwan Mahe submits: As you all know, I really hate to step on the toes of the guardians of the temple, Mr Weber and Mr Stark, who continuously reassure us that there is no risk of a credit crunch or deflation on the eurozone. However, these twin dangers...
- External links 2009-09-28
- The Absolute Power of 0% Interest Rates
- Erwan Mahe submits: Many clients have been asking us for weeks now about the apparent inconsistency in our current thinking, based on our continued adherence to a mediocre macro scenario (L-shaped, for visual purposes) entailing strong risk that Europe will fall into a Japanese-style deflationist trap, which explains our longstanding...
- External links 2009-09-30
- Central Bank Officials Raise the Volume About Yuan
- Erwan Mahe submits: We are happy to note that the currency balances and imbalances we have been monitoring closely in recent days are on the front burner. While central banks like the Swiss National Bank have long identified the dangerous deflationary effect of overly strong currencies and have...
- External links 2009-10-06
- Jingle Mail in Latvia and 'Nipponization' in Germany
- Erwan Mahe submits: I will begin with Germany, which Wednesday morning published industrial orders for August: Total factory demand increased 1.4%, bringing the annual decline to 21.1%. We found capital goods and consumer goods orders, which I have represented in the graph, below, to be the most interesting aspect of...
- External links 2009-10-08
- Uncomfortable Over Symptoms of Debt Deflation
- Erwan Mahe submits: As I write these lines, I am increasingly uncomfortable because wherever I look, I see the symptoms of the debt deflation process which has formed the core of our macroeconomic scenario since the death of securitisation in May 2007. As much as this analysis proved...
- External links 2009-10-09
- Central Banks and Investors Are Building a Tower of Babel
- Erwan Mahe submits: Pieter Brueghel the Elder The longer this crisis drags on, the more I have the feeling that we are confronted with a genuine problem of understanding, not just between the various economic players, but also between central bankers themselves, some of whom seem...
- External links 2009-10-14
- On (De)-Inflation, World Trade and Credit
- Erwan Mahe submits: These are the three pillars of our macroeconomic analysis, whose order may change according to the period, especially since they are so closely linked to each other, inter-reacting through a feedback loop, be it positive (easy credit, globalisation and disinflation) or negative (deflation, credit crunch, protectionism). ...
- External links 2009-10-18
- Quiet Deflationist Macro Front with Good Surprises on the Micro Front
- Erwan Mahe submits: We’re taking a bit of a break today, given the dearth of news, fresh ideas and low volumes, be it on interest rate markets or stock indices. Implied option volatility continues to be low without necessarily being cheap in that the underlying futures prices...
- External links 2009-10-20
- Yet More Debt to Equity Swaps
- Erwan Mahe submits: Just two quick points on this process today, which we have been covering relentlessly, because we continue to view it as the persistent symptom of a debt and asset phenomenon which just won’t go away. Blackstone BX is trying to renegotiate with creditors its $20.6bn...
- External links 2009-10-29
- The Chinese Credit Wave Continues
- Erwan Mahe submits: If there is one credit situation we have been paying particular attention to, it is surely China’s! The country is the only region where the term"credit wave" has any real meaning. Unlike their less directed western peer, domestic banks apply government orders to the letters to open...
- External links 2009-11-08
- Toward a QE Exit Strategy in the U.S.
- Erwan Mahe submits:As the exit-strategy debate continues to pick up steam, we must be careful to distinguish between those entailing monetary and fiscal policies, because their relative priorities vary according to the economic zone.This phenomenon was on full display this past weekend at the G20 meeting. At the meeting, the...
- External links 2009-11-09
- Yellen's Deflationist 'Black Hole'
- Erwan Mahe submits: As the Federal Reserve has kindly revealed the keys to a future tightening of its monetary policy in the wake of its latest FOMC meeting: The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0...
- External links 2009-11-18
- Inflation or Deflation?
- Erwan Mahe submits: We are regularly asked by clients if we have at last changed our extreme outlook on inflation price indices in G7 nations. The hyper inflation vs deflation debate has lost none of its virulence and, now that the biggest part of the base effect on...
- External links 2009-09-21
- Uncertain Asia, Weak Germany, Strong Euro
- Erwan Mahe submits: Machine tool orders in Japan Published last night, machine tool orders, down 71.5% on an annual basis, is one of the sectors, which have suffered the most from the plunge in global demand, given an 86.50% contraction since the peak between March 2009 and...
- External links 2009-09-16
- Government Bonds Still Too Cheap
- Erwan Mahe submits: Corporate earnings fuel stock markets for time being Interest rate markets hesitate (wrongly?) 21 July 2009 The usual ambivalence has returned via the current behaviour of risky assets, which now include for reasons of macroeconomics and for their...
- External links 2009-07-21
- Mr. Svensson, the Ultra-Keynesian, Awakes
- Erwan Mahe submits: Beware: the first section of this note, dedicated to that ever-so-hot-topic, the liquidity trap (rate 0%), may lead to prolonged bouts of snoring. While Ben Bernanke was repeating his well known mantra before Congress yesterday, without adding much in his op-ed piece in the...
- External links 2009-07-22
- European Peripheral Government Bonds Skyrocket
- Erwan Mahe submits: The recent behaviour of interest rate spreads between German government debt and that of other member states of the European Monetary Union is a great source of satisfaction: first, for reasons of civilisation, as I have so often discussed in these lines (Thaler's Corner 08-04-09: Terrified by...
- External links 2009-07-23
- 'Beggar Thy Neighbor' Is Working for Korea
- Erwan Mahe submits: Is Asia taking off as Europe stabilises? Given the latest available statistics for the Asian region and statements by our monetary “leaders” in Europe, that pretty much sums up the situation. by Erwan Mahe
- External links 2009-07-24
- Does Macroeconomic Data No Longer Count?
- Erwan Mahe submits: We have been observing with amazement the spectacular rebound of risky assets now for weeks. We agreed that the first part of the rally, begun in mid-March, was justified, which explains our tactical upward bias at the time (Thaler's 19-03-09: BRAVO! Shock and Awe: Achieving Rapid Dominance),...
- External links 2009-07-27
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