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- AIG Gets the Scarlet Letter
- Tom Armistead submits: Jim Cramer had AIG AIG on the Sell Block last night, citing that the company may have $500 billion of exposure to Lehman, all the expensive junkets and golden parachutes, waste of taxpayer funds, terrible, horrible, awful, CDS casino, so on and so forth, accessory to financial...
- External links 2008-10-17
- The Rules on Buybacks Ought to Be Changed for Citigroup
- Tom Armistead submits: As I watched Citigroup C swing in the wind on Friday, yet another financial shorted down to a fraction of its book value, with the usual discussions - the market knows something, no one will do business with the firm, rumors about the assets - I came...
- External links 2008-11-23
- Why Geithner's Plan Will Work
- Tom Armistead submits: Geithner's plan will work because it fixes what is wrong. The pundits and talking heads wasted a lot of everybody's time in personal attacks, citing lack of detail and vagueness and inferring a lack of decisiveness, rather than taking the time to read the fact sheet and...
- External links 2009-02-12
- Hartford Financial's Risks and Alternatives
- Tom Armistead submits: A few days ago I did an article on financial risk, expressing concerns about my holdings of Hartford Financial Group HIG due to the presence of correlated risk and volatility on both sides of the balance sheet, as well as concerns about ...
- External links 2009-03-05
- Aurelius Sues MBIA Over Transformation: What This Means for Investors
- Tom Armistead submits: Not surprisingly, MBIA MBI has been sued over its transformation plan. Aurelius Master Capital and others are suing to block the split into separate structured finance and municipal bond insurance companies, because they fear it will weaken their ability to collect on various CDOs and...
- External links 2009-03-13
- FASB Proposes a Return to Reality
- Tom Armistead submits: Under much political pressure, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has issued proposed guidance to the infamous FAS 157, on mark to market accounting. Here is a link to the handout (.pdf) they considered and approved. The guidance will be open for comment until 4/1, after which...
- External links 2009-03-17
- Fixing the System: What's Missing?
- Tom Armistead submits: Much of what the Fed, FDIC and Treasury have done to fix the financial system involves stepping in, hopefully on a temporary basis, to provide or facilitate funding that would normally have come from the private sector. Any permanent solution to the current difficulties must decisively address...
- External links 2009-03-25
- MBIA Reports a Profit: $1.1 Billion in Expected Recoveries on Claims
- Tom Armistead submits: MBIA MBI reported 2nd quarter EPS of 4.30, an upward surprise although not directly comparable to consensus which called for a loss of (.92). Volume in the two days leading up to the announcement was extraordinarily heavy, with 28 million shares trading Tuesday and 13 million on...
- External links 2009-08-06
- Webster Financial: Following the Smart Money
- Tom Armistead submits: Webster Financial Corp. WBS is a regional bank, interesting as a value play where the investor has the benefit of the involvement of smart money - in this case, Warburg Pincus. As a strategy, following the smart money into financials worked horribly during the meltdown,...
- External links 2009-09-17
- Regulatory Reform: The Political Calculus
- Tom Armistead submits: Obama's address to Wall Street was poorly received – a smattering of applause for the announcement of the CFPA, but otherwise a deafening silence, followed afterward by commentary that sees little probability of meaningful reform of financial regulation. Most denizens of Wall Street have missed the point....
- External links 2009-09-17
- Allstate: Buy on the Dips
- Tom Armistead submits: Multi-line insurer Allstate ALL was recently downgraded by Goldman Sachs, from neutral to sell. The analyst cited risk of loss of market share for Auto, low ROE on Homeowners, and uncertainty about the Life operation. The shares naturally gave up a few points on the news, so...
- External links 2009-09-18
- MBIA: Tax Arcana
- Tom Armistead submits: MBIA MBI recently filed an 8-K with the SEC, explaining its current situation with regard to the availability of tax refunds under the recently enacted 5 year NOL carryback provisions. I have read it over several times and I am still scratching my head in puzzlement....
- External links 2009-11-19
Additional Resources
- Cobra Electronics: Risk and Reward in the Spotlight
- Tom Armistead submits: Cobra Electronic COBR is now entering a crucial period where possible risk/reward is heightened. I wrote the stock up favorably in December of last year at 1.10, setting a target of 7, citing the combination of low p/b and a real business with some brand name recognition....
- External links 2009-11-17
- Restoring Credibility to Ambac and MBIA
- Tom Armistead submits: Readers are familiar with my opinion on the proper valuation of Ambac ABK and MBIA MBI. GAAP metrics are not useful: the non-GAAP adjusted book value is the proper measure of their worth, and share prices should recover to that level over the next several years. The...
- External links 2008-08-17
- Five Systemic Problems Highlighted by AIG Crisis
- Tom Armistead submits: AIG's AIG sudden difficulties highlight five systemic problems in the financial system that, if not corrected, will permit the financial crisis to perpetuate itself indefinitely, with a domino effect eventually taking down the whole system. Mark to market accounting. The difficulty here is that financial statements no...
- External links 2008-09-17
- Jungle Ethics Financialism vs. Free Market Capitalism
- Tom Armistead submits: Proposals for adequate regulation and enforcement in the financial markets often run into objections from advocates of free-market capitalism. Like any discussion that involves “isms,” a lot of confusion and hard feelings can be generated by a failure to examine the assumptions and preconceptions that cluster around...
- External links 2009-06-08
- Haynes International: Value in Specialty Steel
- Tom Armistead submits: Specialty steelmaker Haynes International HAYN at yesterday's closing price of 32.08, is interesting as a long-term play on industrial recovery. Attractions include a strong balance sheet, ample cash, technical expertise, and a diversified customer list that is a who's who of global industry. Weighing against that, the...
- External links 2009-09-25
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