This paper studies the thermodynamics of a continuous model of directed polymers in random environment. The environment is given by a space-time Poisson point process, whereas the polymer is defined in terms of the Brownian motion. It mainly discuss: i The normalized partition function, its positivity in the limit which...
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relationship between white matter lesions and brain atrophy in relapsing and progressive multiple sclerosis MS. The different rate of BPF loss atrophy and the different relationship between atrophy and changes in lesion burden support the hypothesis that different pathogenetic mechanisms underly...
This paper analyses the relationship between productivity and real exchange rates in Japan, United States, Germany and the European Union. Prior studies have revealed that productivity shocks have a minimum effect on real exchange rate fluctuations. This paper shows that productivity shocks account for most of the long-run fluctuations in...
We analyze how global economic integration of factor markets affects the stability of the macro economy, with respect to expectations-driven fluctuations, when countries differ in their labour market institutions. It is shown that, due to the occurrence of equilibrium indeterminacy, liberalization of capital movements is likely to be accompanied by...
The paper examines the effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices in Tanzania using structural Vector AutoRegression VAR models. Using a data set covering the period 1990 - 2005, it is found that the exchange rate pass-through to inflation declined in the late 1990s despite the depreciation of the...
The U.S. economy rarely grows smoothly. Periods of variable but positive growth are interrupted occasionally by contractions, usually brief. Macroeconomics is making some progress in understanding the patterns of aggregate fluctuations. This paper focuses on the labor market, though some of the new ideas also might help explain features of...
Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and labor market reforms accounts for the bulk of low-frequency...
The objective of this paper is to understand the trading strategy that would allow an investor to take advantage of "Excessive" stock price volatility and "Sentiment" fluctuations. It constructs a general equilibrium model of sentiment. In it, there are two classes of agents and stock prices are excessively volatile because...
The report demonstrates how capital account and trade account liberalizations help reduce inefficiencies associated with the fluctuations in the output gap, relative to the inefficiencies associated with the fluctuations in inflation. With capital account liberalization the representative household is able to smooth fluctuations in consumption, and thus becomes relatively insensitive...
This study utilizes a system of seemingly unrelated structural time series equations to model the dynamics of cotton, wool, rayon, and polyester prices in the international market. The results show that the price fluctuations in the international fiber market are stochastic. The stochastic process that governs these fluctuations has transitory...
This paper describes the lumber supply chain for a case study of a large homebuilder, extending through multiple tiers from the homebuyer to the lumber company. The builder required its framing subcontractor to accept the risk for lumber cost fluctuations. Under this agreement, the framing subcontractor provided a fixed lumber...
The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the...
How well do we understand business cycles and growth? One benchmark answer is provided by the stochastic neoclassical growth theory or real business cycle theory: growth results from the steady progress of productivity, while business cycles result from fluctuations of productivity around this trend. This paper examines show well a...
Consumers in various parts of the United States have experienced substantial fluctuations in the prices they pay for natural gas and electricity as these industries make the transition from regulated monopolies to competitive markets. These fluctuations - the most notable in California during the summer-have caused some consumers and state...
Fluctuations in the terms of trade the price of a country's exports relative to the price of its imports are a source of perennial concern to policymakers in developing countries and industrialized nations alike. This paper seeks to understand the sources of fluctuations in the terms of trade. The goal...
This paper proposes a new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model to investigate the rain effects on risk-taking behaviours of different road users in networks with day-to-day demand fluctuations and variations in travel time. A generalized link travel time function is used to capture the rain effects on vehicle travel...
Optimal toll design from a network reliability point of view is addressed in this paper. Improving network reliability is proposed as a policy objective of road pricing. A reliability-based optimal toll design model, where on the upper level network performance including travel time reliability is optimized, while on the lower...
More than $13 million worth of construction work will take place at Dane County Regional Airport again this year, despite a tough economy and fewer travelers. "This is a big airport, and infrastructure still needs to be maintained," said Director of Engineering Mike Kirchner. ...
NEW YORK -- Managed High Yield Plus Fund Inc. (the "Fund") (NYSE: HYF), a closed-end management investment company, today announced that the Fund's Board of Directors has declared a dividend from net investment income of $0.0400 per share. The dividend is payable on July 31, 2008 to shareholders of record...
IRVINE, Calif. -- Prudential Relocation, a Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) business, announced today that Joe Logudic has joined the company as managing director for the Asia-Pacific region. Prudential Relocation's Europe, Asia-Pacific and other select regions operate under the Pricoa Relocation brand name. "We are pleased to welcome Joe...
Articles 2008-07-14
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