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- Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?
- The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity GARCH class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a...
- White papers 1996-08-01
Additional Resources
- Inflation, Volatility, and Growth
- This paper re-examines the relationship between inflation, inflation volatility and growth using cross-country panel data for the past 30 years. To examine the role of inflation uncertainty on growth, intra-year inflation data to construct an annual measure of inflation volatility is used. Using this measure, it is found that inflation...
- White papers 1996-01-05
- A Field Guide to Inflation: Lessons from the 1970s, Vol. 1
- Economists are divided on the threat from a revival of inflation -- rising prices caused by the enormous stimulus being force-fed to the U.S. economy. Some are more worried about deflation and call for more stimulus in a hurry; others want to stop the stimulus before it creates its own...
- Blog posts 2009-05-20
- Which is Better High or Low inflation?
- It would seem obvious that low inflation is good for consumers, because costs are not rising faster than their paychecks. The article says that low inflation introduces uncertainty. Inflation is bad for the economy because economies built upon debt and encouraging consumers to go further into debt eventually crumble...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- The Level And Uncertainty Of Inflation: Results From Oecd Forecasts
- BRYCE E. KANAGO [*] There is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries. Evidence of a within-county relation is mixed. Evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure; contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using...
- Research articles 2000-01-01
- Investors weigh risks of inflation and deflation
- Rising gold prices and falling government bond yields reflect investors' uncertainty over whether inflation or deflation is the threat to fear for price stability. This week's data should provide fuel for both sides of that debate. UK inflation data for September, due out tomorrow, should show a headline consumer prices...
- News items 2009-10-11
- Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty
- The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. Monetary authorities have put significant emphasis in recent years on attaining credibility for their...
- White papers 2000-05-01
- Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM
- A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction...
- White papers
- High or Low Inflation - Which is Better?
- This articles gives the details information regarding the inflation. It would seem obvious that low inflation is good for consumers, because costs are not rising faster than their paychecks. The only sure way to eliminate uncertainty is to have no inflation at all and that can only be...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
- This article is about the bond related to inflation concept. A new age dawned in the U.S. capital markets on Wednesday, January 29, 1997. The United States Treasury made its first issue of an inflation-linked bond, the 3.375% of 2007. This bond increases its principal by the changes in...
- White papers
- The Reign of Uncertainty in Financial Markets
- John M. Mason submits: The most dominant factor operating in markets at this time, domestic and international, is uncertainty. Yes, the price of oil is down. The price of gold and other commodities is down. The dollar is stronger. In addition, questions have been raised…like has the dollar reached...
- External links 2008-08-26
- The Economy | Inflation gauges: Less than perfect
- Wall Street is nervous because investors don't know what the Federal Reserve will do about interest rates. The Federal Reserve is unsure about interest rates because it's not sure what's happening with inflation. And one reason there's so much uncertainty about inflation is that nobody knows how to...
- Research articles 2006-06-02
- Monetary Policy and Uncertainty
- The Bank of Canada monitors a wide range of indicators in assessing the extent of pressures on capacity and inflation. The Bank's conventional estimate of the output gap provides an overall assessment of the degree of slack in the economy, but this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. The Bank...
- White papers
- Pricing Inflation-Indexed Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk
- Issuing convertible bonds has become a popular way of raising capital by corporations in the last few years. An important subgroup is convertibles linked to a price index or exchange rate. The valuation model of inflation-indexed (or equivalently foreign-currency) convertible bonds derived in this paper considers two sources of uncertainty...
- White papers 2002-10-30
- Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The Case of the Bank of England's MPC
- The transparency and openness of the monetary policymaking process at the Bank of England has provided very detailed information on both the decisions of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee and the information on which they are based. In this paper we consider this decision making process in the...
- White papers 2005-02-01
- Report suggests inflation's tamed, but analysts expect Federal
- WASHINGTON AP -- Consumer prices inched up just 0.1 percent in April, but continuing uncertainty about inflation sustained worries that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates again next week. "Inflation's not dead," said David Wyss, chief economist with DRI/McGraw-Hill in Lexington, Mass. Declining food and...
- Research articles 1997-05-16
- The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
- The article investigates the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. It identifies the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty. Such rules respond to the one-year-ahead inflation forecast and to the current output...
- White papers 2002-06-01
- Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models
- This paper uses a micro-founded macro econometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. It applies Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data, and then determine the policy...
- White papers 2005-07-01
- Stocks lower on inflation fears
- NEW YORK -- Uncertainty gripped Wall Street yet again Thursday as investors, forsaking an early advance, gave in to inflation fears and sent stocks generally lower. Only the tech-focused Nasdaq composite index posted a marginal gain. With the market already alarmed at the prospect of an interest...
- Research articles 2004-05-14
- Fed minutes show concern about inflation
- WASHINGTON -- Facing both higher-than-expected inflation and the possibility of slower growth, Federal Reserve officials at a May 10 meeting were unsure how many more interest-rate increases, if any, will be needed, according to minutes released Wednesday. Underscoring the uncertainty, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee debated a...
- Research articles 2006-06-01
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