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- Best Buys on Bonds
- Despite the nascent stock-market rally, the once-stodgy bond market remains the hot new thing for wary investors. Corporate and municipal bonds offer some temptingly high yields. Treasuries promise a safe haven. But the market is riddled with risks. Learn how to avoid them... Although stocks have bounced back in recent...
- Articles 2009-03-17
- The Dish on Diversification
- Yes, the strategy failed you in the crash, as virtually every asset class except Treasuries took a heart-stopping dive. But if you're hoping to climb out of the hole, it's still your best alternative. Why now may be the time to begin buying stocks, REITs and commodities again... It's...
- Articles 2009-03-27
Additional Resources
- Chart of the Day: TIPS Derived Inflation Expectations
- Mark J. Perry submits: Update: This new chart shows the yields for 10-year Treasuries and 10-year inflation-indexed Treasuries back to 2004, the bottom chart shows the spread between these two yields. by Mark J. Perry
- External links 2009-06-22
- Now Hear This: The T-Bond Market is Forecasting Higher Inflation
- Wednesday's trading in the U.S. Treasury bond market broadcast an important economic signal -- that investors are building higher inflation into their forecasts. As the Treasury attempts brings to market an estimated $3.25 trillion in bonds during the 2009 fiscal year (ending Sept. 30), rising yields suggest that investors lack...
- Blog posts 2009-05-28
- Why TIPS Are Still Better Than Nominal Treasuries
- RIA Analyst submits: RIAanalyst.com - Commentary: A lot of talk this week about spiking long treasuries and the inflation threat. So, we figured we’d run our tips-based inflation expectations model just to to see what things look like. So far things look mostly like a return to normalcy, with a...
- External links 2009-06-15
- TIPS Market Is Probably Underestimating Future Inflation
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: One of the reasons advanced for the creation of TIPS in 1997 was that having inflation-linked bonds and nominal bonds issued by the U.S. government would reveal the market's inflation expectations in real time, and this in turn would provide valuable guidance to policymakers and...
- External links 2009-08-11
- Why Are Interest Rates Rising on Treasuries?
- Charles Lieberman submits: Interest rates surged across the entire maturity range of U.S. Treasuries last week, by an eye-popping 35 basis points on 2-year Treasury notes and a still significant 12 basis points on 10-year notes. A variety of explanations have been offered in explaination: inflation expectations are ratcheting higher,...
- External links 2009-06-10
- What Does the Bubble in U.S. Treasuries Mean for the Economy?
- In recent months there has been a flight to US government debt, both notes and bonds as people and institutions seek financial safety. This flight has bid up the price of Treasuries beyond levels justified by market facts or experience. Treasuries are in a bubble. Bubbles do not endure. Painful...
- External links 2009-02-05
- Inflation Expectations on the Rise
- Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Here's an interesting chart that strongly suggests that 10-year Treasury yields will be trending higher. The blue line is the 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate as calculated by Barclays and as reported by Bloomberg. It's a way of extracting future...
- External links 2009-11-09
- Treasuries Showing Fed Now in Inflation-Fighting Mode?
- Brett Steenbarger submits: Short-term Treasuries (SHY; below) fell out of bed on Friday on the heels of better than expected employment data. Click to enlarge: The breakout move has left traders wondering if the Fed might be switching to inflation-fighting mode. Stocks pulled back from their initial...
- External links 2009-06-08
- Soft Commodities Starting to Scream 'Inflation'
- Brett Owens submits:Milton Friedman said that inflation is "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Judging by the recent price action in many of the soft and agricultural commodities, they appear to agree. Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is making a bet that Friedman was wrong. ...
- External links 2009-05-04
- Inflation Concerns Are Premature
- Value Interrogator submits: Political pundits and inflation wary investors have been sounding the alarm of a looming explosion in inflation in the US, primarily due to the massive $1.8 trillion budget deficit for 2009, and expectations of the same for 2010. Plus the hundreds of billions of dollars the...
- External links 2009-06-08
- Why Central Banks Should Own Inflation-Linked Bonds
- The article talks about the primary goals of a central bank is to maintain stable prices, which means maintaining the purchasing power and stability of its currency and, by extension, the value and stability of the portfolio of assets backing that currency. Article also explains about the Inflation-linked bonds that...
- White papers 2003-12-01
- The Long-Term Real Interest Rate For Social Security
- This paper considers the Social Security real interest rate, examining historical interest rates and estimates derived from Treasury inflation-indexed securities. The paper demonstrates that historical experience with nominal rates of return and realized inflation back through 1870 results in a long-term real interest rate just under 3 percent, although in...
- White papers 2005-03-30
- Gold and Gold Stock Performance During Deflation and Inflation
- I’ve heard more than a few pundits question an investment in gold or gold stocks in the current environment. They point to deflation and the lack of inflation in the foreseeable future as reasons why precious metals should be avoided. Sounds intelligent on the surface but it reveals, to this...
- External links 2009-03-18
- TIPS Derived Expected Inflation Is Only 1.75%
- Mark J. Perry submits: The top chart shows the weekly, bond market-based 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation back to 2003, calculated as the difference between 10-year regular, nominal Treasury yields and 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed yields measure of the real interest rate, both on a constant maturity basis (St. Louis Fed...
- External links 2009-09-20
- Expect Treasuries to Rally in the Second Half
- I have been writing on the techincal outlook for Treasury yields for some time, and since the spring, my forecast has been for a second half rally based on two factors. First, Treasuries rally in the second half of the year. I can not give anyone a good reason why...
- External links 2009-10-08
- Has Obama Run Out of Maneuvering Room Already?
- David Goldman submits: Between the election of Barack Obama and the afternoon of June 10, the yield doubled to 4% from 2% for 10-year Treasury notes, the benchmark for long-term yields in the U.S. economy. Part of the sharp rise in yield was a snapback from levels that reflected...
- External links 2009-06-11
- A.M. Best Special Report: Yield Curve Inverted by Non-U.S. Buying of Treasuries
- OLDWICK, N.J. -- Despite year-end 2006 consensus forecasts that anticipate an early 2007 easing move by the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee to stimulate a softening U.S. economy, lower interest rates are far from a certainty. Even with weakening business activity, inflation and dollar difficulties have the potential both to...
- Research articles 2007-01-02
- Inflation fears shock bonds.(Brief Article)
- Mar 23, 2005 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) An increase in US interest rates has affected the bonds market. US treasuries prices declined after the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would toughen its stance on interest rates. The Fed Reserve ...
- Research articles 2005-03-23
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