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- Predicting the U.K.'s Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: Finally, the United Kingdom presents an interesting case, where one can introduce a structural break in the model, i.e. in the predicted time series. Figure 5 displays original and smoothed curves for both observed and predicted GDP between 1972 and 2009. There is a distinct break around...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Predicting New Zealand's Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: Following France and Germany is New Zealand. The model for New Zealand is also obtained by trial-and-error method. Empirical constant A and the specific age have been varied in order to fit amplitude and major features of the observed curve. The best fit value is...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Predicting Germany's Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: This is a continuation of the previous post, where the model is presented. In alphabetical order, the next country to predict the evolution of real GDP per capita is Germany. The best fit constant A=$260 and the defining age is eighteen years. The age distribution from 2002...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Predicting France's Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: In 2005, we introduced a new concept describing the evolution of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as driven by the change in specific age population and the attained level of real GDP per capita [3-6]. According to this model, the growth in real GDP per capita (for...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Unemployment in Italy Will Reach 11% by 2012
- Ivan Kitov submits: The model As originally defined by Kitov (2006a), inflation and unemployment are linear and potentially lagged functions of the change rate of labor force: by Ivan Kitov
- External links 2009-06-30
- Predicting Inflation, Unemployment in Germany
- Ivan Kitov submits: Abstract Potential links between inflation, pt, and unemployment, UEt, in Germany have been examined. There exists a consistent conventional Phillips curve despite some changes in monetary policy. This Phillips curve is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment with the latter leading the...
- External links 2009-06-29
Additional Resources
- Modeling Boeing's Share Price
- Ivan Kitov submits: We continue modelling share prices of companies from the S&P 500 list. At Seeking Alpha, we have already presented models for the following companies: [[IBM]], [[DOV]], [[PG]], [[DD]], [[APD]], [[CVX]], [[DVN]], [[HAL]], [[MSFT]], [[COP]], and [[XOM]]. Here we model Boeing's BA share price. Our...
- External links 2009-07-02
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