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- How to Predict Prices of Commodities
- Ivan Kitov submits:AbstractPreviously, linear trends were revealed in the differences between the headline CPI and the price indices for various subcategories of the CPI in the United States. These trends can be continuous, as observed with the price index for medical care, or piecewise with turning points between trends with...
- External links 2009-06-25
- Predicting BofA's Share Price (An Advanced Model)
- Ivan Kitov submits: We continue predicting share prices of S&P 500 companies with Bank of America BAC. This time, we use an advanced model see previous model here. The first company studied with this model was Boeing BA. The advanced model includes four components of the CPI in the USA...
- External links 2009-07-08
- Modeling Bank of America's Share Price
- Ivan Kitov submits: One by one, we are modeling share prices of companies from the S&P 500 list. We have already presented quantitative models for companies in various subcategories: information and technology, energy, industrials, consumer staples, materials, and financials Western Alliance Bancorporation. It is now Bank of America's BAC turn....
- External links 2009-07-02
- Modeling Boeing's Share Price
- Ivan Kitov submits: We continue modelling share prices of companies from the S&P 500 list. At Seeking Alpha, we have already presented models for the following companies: [[IBM]], [[DOV]], [[PG]], [[DD]], [[APD]], [[CVX]], [[DVN]], [[HAL]], [[MSFT]], [[COP]], and [[XOM]]. Here we model Boeing's BA share price. Our...
- External links 2009-07-02
- Predicting the U.K.'s Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: Finally, the United Kingdom presents an interesting case, where one can introduce a structural break in the model, i.e. in the predicted time series. Figure 5 displays original and smoothed curves for both observed and predicted GDP between 1972 and 2009. There is a distinct break around...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Predicting New Zealand's Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: Following France and Germany is New Zealand. The model for New Zealand is also obtained by trial-and-error method. Empirical constant A and the specific age have been varied in order to fit amplitude and major features of the observed curve. The best fit value is...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Predicting Germany's Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: This is a continuation of the previous post, where the model is presented. In alphabetical order, the next country to predict the evolution of real GDP per capita is Germany. The best fit constant A=$260 and the defining age is eighteen years. The age distribution from 2002...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Predicting France's Real GDP
- Ivan Kitov submits: In 2005, we introduced a new concept describing the evolution of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as driven by the change in specific age population and the attained level of real GDP per capita [3-6]. According to this model, the growth in real GDP per capita (for...
- External links 2009-07-01
- Unemployment in Japan Will Be Above 6% by August
- Ivan Kitov submits: Since the beginning of 2009, the unemployment rate in Japan has been on rise. The Statistical Bureau of Japan has just announced a severe increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate up to 5.2% in May. There was only 4.1% unemployment in December 2008. We...
- External links 2009-06-30
- Unemployment in Italy Will Reach 11% by 2012
- Ivan Kitov submits: The model As originally defined by Kitov (2006a), inflation and unemployment are linear and potentially lagged functions of the change rate of labor force: by Ivan Kitov
- External links 2009-06-30
- Predicting Inflation, Unemployment in Germany
- Ivan Kitov submits: Abstract Potential links between inflation, pt, and unemployment, UEt, in Germany have been examined. There exists a consistent conventional Phillips curve despite some changes in monetary policy. This Phillips curve is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment with the latter leading the...
- External links 2009-06-29
- How Does the PPI Compare with Computers vs. Pharmaceuticals?
- Ivan Kitov submits: We have presented differences between various components of PPI: gold, jewelry, durables, and nondurables, etc. An impression might arise from these articles that all commodities in the PPI demonstrate the same behavior and we just repeat the same post over and over. This is not...
- External links 2009-06-28
- WAL's Share Price Predicts Fast Growth in Energy and Food Prices
- Ivan Kitov submits: We continue modelling share prices for companies from S&P 500 list. A new financial corporation Western Alliance Bancorporation WAL has a very short time history of listing in the S&P 500 - since 2005. But it provides an outstanding example of prediction. In previous posts, we developed...
- External links 2009-06-28
- PPI of Copper Ores and Grains Both Show an Unpredictable Future
- Ivan Kitov submits: Lately, we have demonstrated that the evolution of various components of CPI and PPI in the United States is not a random process but rather a predetermined one with long-term sustainable trends [1-4]. Using these trends, one can predict consumer and producer price indices for various goods,...
- External links 2009-06-28
- Expect Gold Ore Price Index to Grow at Lower Rate than PPI
- Ivan Kitov submits: Previously, we have demonstrated that gold ores price can be predicted at a several year horizon [1]. The prediction was based on the observation that the difference between the overall producer price index, PPI, and the producer index for gold ores shows sustainable trends. A new trend...
- External links 2009-07-17
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