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- Corporate Bond Market Collapse Creates Opportunities
- While the corporate bond market has collapsed, the 10-year Treasury yield has been range-bound between 3.5% and 4%. Despite the stock market crash and the widespread fears of a multi-year deflation, the T-note yield has been unable to penetrate this lower bound, which is perfectly understandable given estimates of a...
- External links 2008-11-11
- NAREIT All-REIT Index Yield Is Uninspiring
- Following the recent rebound in REIT prices, the yield on the NAREIT All-REIT index has dropped to 5.14%, well below the average of 6.42% since 1998. This level of yield is uninspiring, given the negative fundamentals of the asset class. Other areas of the equity markets are more attractively valued,...
- External links 2009-09-06
- Why You Should Have Some Gold in Your Portfolio
- The price of gold has suddenly caught a bid, jumping over $40/ounce in the past week. Gold appears to be breaking to the upside of a consolidation range that hs been in place since February of this year. Gold had been lagging behind the 2009 performance of commodities such as...
- External links 2009-09-06
- Stocks Undervalued in Current Economic Environment
- As a result of the 40% to 65% depending on the index gains we have seen off the lows, stocks have moved from nearly dirt cheap levels three months ago to valuations that seem appropriate to mildly undervalued given the economic environment and the yields available in fixed income markets.The...
- External links 2009-06-11
- Stocks Are Due for Consolidation, But the Worst Is Behind Us
- The stock market has enjoyed its sharpest six-week rally since 1938, surging 28% from March 9th through last Friday. The financial sector – up an impressive 79% over this period – has led the advance, as fears of systemic failure have abated. To put the recent surge in financial stocks...
- External links 2009-04-21
- Firming Commodity Prices Signal Economic Stabilization
- Cyclical commodity prices such as oil and industrial metals have been in firming trend, signaling that the global economy is stabilizing and the government’s massive reflation effort is beginning to have its intended effect. It is hard to imagine that the astounding amount of money the U.S. is throwing at...
- External links 2009-04-19
- Financial Sector Decimation Continues
- Shareholder capital continues to be decimated in the financial sector. The Dow Jones U.S. Financial Index has plunged an additional 35% in 2009, after dropping 50% in 2008. There is still no clarity about how the U.S. will "fix" its broken banking system. This is the number one issue for...
- External links 2009-02-19
- Two S&P 500 Charts: Rolling 10-Year Returns, Inflation Adjusted Performance
- The chart below presents rolling 10 year returns excluding dividends for the S&P 500 SPY going back to the Great Depression era. The past ten years have been one of the worst in history—ranking in the 1st percentile! The silver lining in this data is that 10 years of negative...
- External links 2009-02-08
- Context is Everything: 7 Ways to Assess the Bigger Picture
- Given the historic events in the financial markets and the economy that have taken place over the past two months, it is helpful to take a step back and review the bigger picture: 1. From September 19 through October 10, we had a market crash. The S&P 500...
- External links 2008-11-18
- REITs: Spreads as Wide as a '70s Necktie
- Like global equities generically, real estate securities are now valued at their most attractive levels in decades. As a result of further selling pressure in November, current yields on U.S. REIT indexes now exceed 9%, which is over a 5% premium to the 10-year Treasury yield. You have to go...
- External links 2008-11-12
- September Real Asset Review
- Real asset investments (e.g. real estate, commodities, and gold) registered across the board gains in September. By far, the most profitable real asset investment over the past five years has been gold, which has appreciated 19.2% per annum. Gold is viewed by many as an alternate currency - one that...
- External links 2009-10-13
Additional Resources
- Agile Investing Adds Commodity ETN, Global Clean Energy ETF To Portfolios
- We are making two changes in our model portfolios this week. First, we are going to take advantage of the recent sharp correction in commodity prices to add to all portfolios a 3% position in the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity exchange-traded note DJP. After reaching a 52-week high of...
- External links 2008-08-11
- Asset Class Movements: So Much for the Summer Doldrums
- The shifts in relative asset class performance over the past month have been remarkable. The most dramatic movements have been in the commodity sector, where oil prices have dropped $35 (or 23%), gold prices have plunged $200 (or 19%), and the diversified Dow Jones-AIG commodity index has sunk 17%. These...
- External links 2008-08-18
- Navigating These Muddled Markets
- In assessing the outlook for the financial markets, it may be wise to follow the rule of Presidential politics and wait until after Labor Day to undertake a thorough evaluation. In recent weeks, the markets have given us a great deal of volatility with no clear trend, and a...
- External links 2008-08-25
- Bear Market In Its Final Stages?
- Bear markets exhibit a process of risk subsiding over time as excesses are corrected, valuations improve, and pessimism builds. This bear market is now roughly a year old, and signs are appearing that it may be in its final stages. September and October are historically the two most difficult months...
- External links 2008-09-07
- Bond Market Still Reeling From Credit Crisis, Recession
- Bond markets are not yet signaling that we are out of the woods in terms of the credit crisis and the broader economic recession. While there have been signs of improvement in the U.S. stock market since mid-July, action in the bond market has been characterized by increasing credit spreads...
- External links 2008-09-08
- Commodities Decline: The Perfect Storm
- Commodities have rolled over in a dramatic way in the third quarter. The Dow Jones – AIG commodity index is 25% off its late June highs. Crude oil has dropped $40 and is trading at a five month low. Commodities were very extended on the upside prior to this decline...
- External links 2008-09-10
- REITs: Uninspiring Valuations, Still Vulnerable to Housing Bust
- The extreme over-valuation of REITs that had built up by late 2006 was largely corrected by 2007’s major decline in REIT prices. However, REIT valuations never moved to an attractive zone, except relative to Treasury yields, which are considered over-valued themselves and thus a shaky foundation upon which to build...
- External links 2008-09-11
- Lehman's Collapse: Broader Economic Damage Unlikely
- The 14-month old credit crisis is clearly in its most dramatic phase. Last weekend, the U.S.government took over Fannie Mae FNM and Freddie Mac FRE, in a transaction that essentially wiped out the common stockholders. The ultimate fate of these two entities has not been determined, and the cost to...
- External links 2008-09-15
- Opportunity in Emerging Markets Amidst This Panic
- September was one of the worst months on record for individual and professional investors alike. By the end of the first week in October, stocks dropped to new bear market lows and credit markets remained in a state of disorder, despite Friday's passage of the Treasury's bailout package. Current panic...
- External links 2008-10-06
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