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- What We Can Learn from Volatility History
- James Picerno submits: There are no short cuts to easy profits, but sometimes Mr. Market throws us a bone or two in our quest for strategic insight. Two examples, though hardly the only ones, come by way of reviewing correlation and volatility histories. We surveyed correlations last week, and...
- External links 2008-10-20
- Stimulus Package Report Card: Has It Worked?
- So far, at least some of the $787 billion stimulus package is showing signs of success. But what about the longer term? And will it have been worth the cost? The answer is that at least some of the spending has goosed the economy. But it’s a tricky...
- Articles 2009-09-15
- How to Invest in Gold
- Thinking about plunking some money into gold to hedge your bets? Don?t invest a dime until you read this cautionary advice. The Case for Gold...
- Articles 2009-05-13
- The Dish on Diversification
- Yes, the strategy failed you in the crash, as virtually every asset class except Treasuries took a heart-stopping dive. But if you're hoping to climb out of the hole, it's still your best alternative. Why now may be the time to begin buying stocks, REITs and commodities again... It's...
- Articles 2009-03-27
- Taking a Strategic View of the Markets
- James Picerno submits: Investment advice runs the gamut in the known universe of finance. Some of it's good, some of it is less so, but the majority of it is just plain misguided if not detrimental to the long-term interests of investors. It is an old story, but it's...
- External links 2009-09-28
- From Peak to Present: A Retrospective
- James Picerno submits: It's been a long, strange trip in the nearly two years since October 2007, when the U.S. stock market peaked. The details of the journey have been dissected ad infinitum, on a tick-by-tick basis. But what of the big picture? How does a broad review of...
- External links 2009-09-11
- Of TIPS, Indexing, and the Same Old Same Old
- James Picerno submits: Last week, The Wall Street Journal published a story explaining why Pimco, the behemoth bond fund manager, believes active management is preferable for running a portfolio of TIPS, or inflation-indexed Treasuries. According to the article, "Pacific Investment Management Co…. says that while indexing may work wonders...
- External links 2009-08-18
- How Real Is the 10-Year's 'Real' Yield?
- James Picerno submits: The highest real (inflation-adjusted) yields in 15 years for Treasuries are boosting demand, Bloomberg reported at the end of last month. Halfway through August, there's no reason to think otherwise. The 10-year's yield hasn't changed much in recent weeks, closing yesterday at roughly...
- External links 2009-08-14
- Global Market Index: Some Perspective on History
- James Picerno submits: You can't generate robust forecasts of risk premia by looking only at the past, but you can certainly learn a lot about how the capital markets fluctuate. With that in mind, we present a cursory look at recent history. In particular, the chart...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Monetary Policy: Gradualism Is Bad, Except in Comparison to Any Other Option
- James Picerno submits: New York Times columnist Paul Krugman writes today that it's too early to begin removing the monetary stimulus engineered by the Federal Reserve. "A few months ago the U.S. economy was in danger of falling into depression," he notes in his column. "Aggressive...
- External links 2009-06-15
- The Green Shoots of April: Some Reasons for Market Optimism
- James Picerno submits: April was another solid month of recovery for the capital and commodity markets, building on March's rise. There's still a long way to go to repair the damage of September through February. Indeed, it'll probably take years for all the asset classes to return to old...
- External links 2009-05-01
- Money Managers Now Leaning to Bonds
- James Picerno submits: What are professional money managers thinking these days? A new poll by Russell Investments offers an answer. Among the highlights: •67% of managers are now bullish on corporate bonds •61% are bullish on high-yield bonds by James Picerno
- External links 2009-03-30
- The Bond Ghouls Strike Back
- James Picerno submits: For a brief, shining moment, there was convergence. Now there's confusion. The bond market isn't taking any chances. Yes, deflation's a risk, but judging by the sentiment among traders in government IOUs, expectations appear to be moving ever so slightly toward the bias that...
- External links 2009-02-09
- Welcome to Parity
- James Picerno submits: Deflation is here. The question before the house: How long it will last? Ideally, it's just passing through, albeit throwing everyone into a temporary tizzy with worries that the U.S. is set to repeat the Japanese experience. Certainly the Federal Reserve is working overtime...
- External links 2008-12-29
- Holiday Markets: Wishing and Hoping
- James Picerno submits: U.S. corporate earnings have been under pressure for some time, based on reported operating earnings for the S&P 500. Indeed, the bloom fell off the rose a year ago, when S&P earnings took a dive in 2007's fourth quarter from the formerly plush levels. by James...
- External links 2008-12-22
- Please, Let October Be the Worst of It
- James Picerno submits: If October 2008 wasn't the worst month on record for the capital and commodity markets, we'd hate to find out what is. Indeed, September was an awful month, but October was a disaster. September's across-the-board losses for all the major asset classes suffered a...
- External links 2008-11-03
- Inflation: One Worry to Cross Off the List
- James Picerno submits: It's no surprise to learn that inflation expectations have been pounded downward in the wake of the financial crisis, although the magnitude of the drop may still turn a few heads. Consider the outlook for consumer prices embedded in the spread between the nominal...
- External links 2008-10-23
- High-Yield Bonds: An Indicator for the Ebb and Flow of Greed and Fear
- James Picerno submits: The biggest challenge in strategic-minded investing lies within. The high-yield bond market of late offers a telling example. Trailing yields on junk bonds have soared recently, as our chart below shows. The risk premium on junk over 10-year Treasury Notes exploded skyward to close...
- External links 2008-10-21
- Gold, Oil, and More: 5 Rules for Investing in Commodities
- Diversifying your portfolio with a natural resources mutual fund or ETF will lower its volatility, offer a hedge against the dollar and ? usually ? provide some protection against stock market losses. You’ve heard about the importance of diversifying ad nauseam, and commodities will also help diversify your portfolio....
- Articles 2009-10-16
Additional Resources
- U.S. Economy: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
- James Picerno submits: The big-picture economic news looks good, on the surface. But don't be fooled. It's not as robust as it looks. Today's release of the "advance" number for second-quarter GDP shows that the economy rose by a real annualized 1.9% pace in the three months...
- External links 2008-07-31
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