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- Unwinding of the Carry Trade Has Finally Hit Currencies
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: Why has the yen strengthened so much this week, even though the Japanese stock market has plummeted? The financial media have largely got this one right: the answer is the unwinding of the carry trade, and the associated flight to quality, which means a flight to...
- External links 2008-10-29
- Commerce Department's Revised GDP Shows a Delineated Story for the Recession
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: On July 31, the Department of Commerce’s BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis released an important set of numbers regarding GDP. Of most immediate interest, the advance estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter, April-June, 2009, was a very moderate -1 per cent per annum....
- External links 2009-08-03
- Federal Spending Gives More Bang-for-Buck than Tax Cuts
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: Personal saving rose again in the second quarter. “Does this mean the stimulus tax cut has failed, as the 2008 tax cut stimulus did?”, asks The National Journal. My answer: by Jeffrey Frankel
- External links 2009-08-04
- The First 200 Days of Obamanomics Have Been an Economic Success
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: Friday marks 200 days in office for President Obama. “How has he done?” asks Fortune. The first thing to say is that Barack Obama took over the presidency at an extremely difficult time. A variety of analogies suggest themselves: He is Harry...
- External links 2009-08-06
- Finally, Some Good News in the 'Hours Worked' Statistic
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: In the July employment report released by the BLS this morning, the labor market shows its first encouraging signs. Most commentators will focus on the jobs numbers, which show a decline of only half the rate that the economy experienced in the “freefall period” of late...
- External links 2009-08-07
- Why the Transaction Tax Isn't Such a Terrible Idea
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: A year ago, it occurred to me that if the popular blood lust against the financial sector was to be given vent, one could do worse than adopt a small but global tax on financial transactions. The Financial Times reports Thursday, August 27,...
- External links 2009-08-28
- The Five New Trends in International Monetary Economics
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: The field of International Monetary Economics is not without its own cycles and fads. In a speech at the European Central Bank over the summer, “On Global Currencies,” I identified eight concepts that I saw as having recently “peaked” and eight more that...
- External links 2009-09-12
- G20 Are Trying to Hit Ambitious Greenhouse Gas Goals While Obeying Political Constraints
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: National leaders are meeting at the United Nations in New York to discuss climate change negotiations. Talks will continue at the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh later in the week. But hopes look very bleak for progress sufficient to produce at...
- External links 2009-09-22
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Down in the Recession: Is 'Green GDP' Up?
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: Alan Krueger, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Affairs, suggested in a speech in October a useful metaphor to distinguish different kinds of economic indicators. Some indicators are like the gauges on the dashboard of the car — industrial production, unemployment, inflation and so on....
- External links 2009-11-06
- Obama's Fiscal Stimulus Has Saved Jobs
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: The National Journal asks: Is the Obama administration’s stimulus plan helping to create or “save” 650,000 jobs, as the president and his aides say? Is that an appropriate way to measure the stimulus’ impact? by Jeffrey Frankel
- External links 2009-11-10
- The Dodd Bill: CoCos Are Fine, But Don't Hobble the Fed
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: The National Journal asks views on a recent proposal for financial reform: The Dodd bill on financial regulatory reform embraces a supposed solution to the ‘Too Big To Fail’ conundrum: Contingent Convertible Bonds, or CoCos, which turn into equity once a bank’s capital falls below a...
- External links 2009-11-17
- A Return to Saving Over Spending?
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: The National Journal asks “Is the recent Return to Saving temporary or permanent?” The famous Paradox of Thrift holds now more than ever: what is good for the individual, and for the economy in the long run — high saving — is bad for...
- External links 2009-07-13
- There's No Lying in Government Statistics: The Labor Market Is Still Down
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: The quip “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics” is variously attributed to Benjamin Disraeli or Mark Twain. What should the public make of government statistics, such as the monthly employment report released today, Thursday, July 2, by the...
- External links 2009-07-02
- The Labor Market Has Not Yet Signaled a Turning Point in the Markets
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: The rate of decline in employment moderated substantially in May, according to the BLS figures released June 5, to about half the monthly rate of job loss recorded over the preceding six months (345,000 vs. 642,000). The news was received in a variety...
- External links 2009-06-08
- How Has the Euro Fared After Ten Years?
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: January 1, 2009, is the tenth birthday of the euro. On this occasion, everyone has been taking stock. The record of the euro shows both pluses and minuses. Looking back, the euro has in many ways been more successful than predicted by the skeptics — many...
- External links 2008-12-24
- Why Do the Euro's Effects on Trade Fall Short of Estimates in Smaller Monetary Unions?
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: By roughly the five-year mark after the launch of the euro in 1999, enough data had accumulated to allow an analysis of the early effects of the euro on European trade patterns. Studies include Micco, Ordoñez and Stein (2003), Bun and Klaassen (2002), Flam and Nordström...
- External links 2008-12-25
- Advice for Obama: Spend Green Today, Tax Green in the Future
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: Politicians are often tempted to think that a policy to help one goal, say air quality, must also help lots of other goals, say economic growth. Economists are more likely to presume tradeoffs, and to use the principle of targets and instruments. That principle says that...
- External links 2009-01-21
- Stop Distorting U.S. Spending Priorities into Tax Cuts
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: It is unfortunate that much of the congressional debate regarding the stimulus package is phrased in terms of a summary statistic: what fraction of the stimulus is to be increased spending and what fraction is to be tax cuts. It currently looks to be about 70-30,...
- External links 2009-02-08
- TIPS Can Help Improve the Fiscal Situation
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: Everyone asks for tips: Where can I put my money? Stocks or bonds have done very badly over the last year, needless to say, and one cannot be confident that they have hit bottom. Should one just leave everything in banks and money market funds?...
- External links 2009-02-22
- Is This a New Depression? The Lessons of the 1930s
- Jeffrey Frankel submits: We often hear the question “isn’t this economic crisis becoming as bad as the Great Depression?” Economists can offer a variety of reassurances, but each of them is quite circumscribed: 1. First reassurance: So far, the downturn is at worst competing with 1981-82 for the title...
- External links 2009-02-23
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