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John Keefe has worked on Wall Street, as an industry analyst for a big investment bank, and on Main Street, first as a CPA and later as co-founder of a software company. Since 2002 he has been writing on financial topics such as the workings of investment strategies and retirement...- more about John Keefe »
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- Retail Sales Beat Last Year's Weak Turnout, But Are Still In a Slump
- Each week, watchers of the retail industry release two different flash reports on the latest sales. The reports, out Thursday, show that late October showed the best numbers in over a year, but as we've seen in housing, car sales, manufacturing, and just about everywhere else, the credit crisis and...
- Blog posts 2009-11-05
- 2Q GDP Report: Please Hold Your Applause
- President Obama's economic advisers are trying hard to give the 2Q 2009 GDP results the best possible spin. The headline numbers point to an improvement, but a closer look shows that the economy we have all come to know and love is still very weak, and more may be coming....
- Blog posts 2009-08-02
- Global Purchasing Managers Show Smiles
- The world manufacturing economy is far from a convincing expansion, but the collective reports from purchasing managers in 26 countries say that in most markets, business has stopped contracting. For the group as a whole, prices and employment are still falling, although at smaller rates, but output and new orders,...
- Blog posts 2009-08-04
- Compared to Senate Bill 1406, 'Cash for Clunkers' is Small Potatoes
- Recent economic headlines have gone to the programs that help people afford new cars, but far greater money is going to a facility for a more needy cohort of Americans -- food stamps. Included in new agricultural legislation passed by the Senate yesterday is a 12 percent increase for nutritional...
- Blog posts 2009-08-05
- Bailout Bonanza for Berkshire and Buffett
- I commend to you an insightful post, "Buffett's Betrayal," by Rolfe Winkler of Reuters, who at age 14 joined the Warren Buffett fan club. It describes how Berkshire Hathaway and the Sage of Omaha have cleaned up from the taxpayer funded bailout of companies it invests in. Here are a...
- Blog posts 2009-08-06
- Our Next Financial Showdown: Commercial Real Estate
- Updated August 19, 2009 The U.S. economy is not out of the woods, but important indicators are at least signaling the end of the freefall in the housing market. Our next worry may be commercial real estate, which has been going through the same cycle of falling...
- Blog posts 2009-08-14
- Germany, France and Japan Are In Recovery. When's Our Turn?
- In the 2009 global economic race, the U.S. has been left behind as our large-economy colleagues have returned to GDP growth. Most forecasters are looking for a turn this year, but with two-thirds of the economy still shrinking, it's tough to make the math work. Japan and...
- Blog posts 2009-08-17
- Why U.S. Banks Aren't Lending
- The Fed has released its latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer survey, which takes the pulse of bank lending around the country. It's an uneven, thready pulse: things are improving, but in spite of the TARP, TALF and the other programs that injected billions into the banking system, a significant proportion...
- Blog posts 2009-08-18
- How Does 2009 Compare to Previous Housing Recoveries?
- After U.S. single-family housing starts hit a record low annual rate of 342,000 in January, they've taken steps forward in five out of the six months subsequent. They're up 34 percent from the bottom assuming January qualifies as such, so the pace of the recovery is in the middle of...
- Blog posts 2009-08-19
- Update: Should Ben Bernanke Serve A Second Term? Economists Say Yes
- This post was updated August 12, 2009 Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Benjamin Bernanke reaches the end of his four-year term in January. The position is appointed by the president, rather than elected, but Bernanke nonetheless has started a 2010 campaign, of sorts, with a town-hall meeting in...
- Blog posts 2009-07-30
- In Today's Calmer Markets, Interest Rates Both Rise and Fall
- Interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising this week, as the government conducts king-sized auctions across a range of maturities, totaling a record $115 billion. Investors are still eager to buy Treasuries, but with a recovery and inflation in the works T-bonds are no longer the only game...
- Blog posts 2009-07-27
- Closing the Enron Loophole: Feds May Limit Speculative Trading of Oil, and Calm Prices
- The crazy behavior of oil prices in 2008 has been blamed on excessive speculation in the futures markets from pension funds and endowments. In keeping with the new appetite for tighter financial regulation, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC is looking into limiting energy futures trading volumes, to bring them...
- Blog posts 2009-07-08
- Treasury Earns 12% Return on First Few TARP Banks: Is That Enough?
- Banks that took Treasury TARP funding are eager to cut their ties to the program, in order to demonstrate their self-sufficiency, and regain full control of their institutions including how much they can pay the top brass. Eleven smallish banks have completely wound up their TARP participation, and the Congressional...
- Blog posts 2009-07-12
- Goldman's 2Q Earnings: A Record U.S. Taxpayers Can Be Proud Of
- It's a shame to waste a crisis: so goes the popular current saying. Those words must be posted in every executive suite, cubicle wall and bathroom mirror at Goldman Sachs, because the financial giant managed to report record profits for second quarter 2009, notwithstanding the deepest recession in 70 years....
- Blog posts 2009-07-14
- CIT Group: 300,000 Mom and Pop Businesses Are Too Big To Fail
- One of the non-banks to partake in the Treasury's TARP funds last year is CIT Group, which provides lifeblood financing to small and mid-sized manufacturers and retailers. But in spite of that $2.3 billion infusion, CIT is still short on funds, and rating agencies have reduced CIT to junk bond...
- Blog posts 2009-07-15
- Underreported Unemployment: Why Those Jobs May Not Come Back
- Today's weekly report of new unemployment claims showed what appears to be a big improvement -- a sharp drop to 522,000. But the seasonal adjustment factors are distorting our perspective, and the numbers are not as good as they look. We should probably be adjusting our long-term perspective, too, say...
- Blog posts 2009-07-16
- Government Boosts Minimum Wage to $7.25 Per Hour? Outrageous!
- Perhaps my many awful jobs during high school and college give me a bias, but I've never understood how anyone could object to raising the minimum wage. Every couple of years, the state and federal forces insist that employers give five million or so janitors, fry cooks and housekeepers a...
- Blog posts 2009-07-20
- Corporate Earnings: Something Good Must Be Happening
- Tis the season for public companies to report quarterly profits, and in keeping with the rest of the U.S. economy, the picture is "less bad" than six or 12 months ago. (It's still a limited sample, however, based on results of about one-fifth of the S&P 500.) Few companies are...
- Blog posts 2009-07-22
- Bailout Update: Goldman Says Thanks and Farewell; and Required Reading On AIG
- To close the book on the financial bailout, or at least its chapter, Goldman Sachs has redeemed the warrants to purchase Goldman shares, issued with the $10 billion of capital the Treasury insisted the company take under the TARP program. Rather than haggle like some petulant institutions, Goldman is paying...
- Blog posts 2009-07-23
- Nine Million Part-Timers Mean Slow Job Growth in Recovery
- During this recession we've come to learn that the headline rate of unemployment doesn't tell us the whole truth about the job market. The official rate for July was down a bit, to 9.4 percent, but the government's alternative measure (called U-6), which includes people who are forced to work...
- Blog posts 2009-08-20
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