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- A Euro-Yen Recession Trade
- Kathy Lien submits: I have long said that EUR/JPY is one of my favorite recession trades. With the Eurozone in a recession and the need for the European Central Bank to step up to the plate and lower interest rates, the rate differential between the Euro and Japanese...
- External links 2008-11-20
- Will October Non-Farm Payrolls Fall by 300K?
- Kathy Lien submits: Even though the US economy has not officially entered a recession, the US labor market has. October will mark the tenth consecutive month of net job losses. The market currently projects a loss of 200k jobs last month, but given the trend of job...
- External links 2008-11-06
- Could Recession Turn the UK into the Next Japan?
- Kathy Lien submits: When the Bank of England cut interest rates by 150bp last week, I turned aggressively bullish EUR/GBP on the belief that interest rates are headed below 2%. The currency pair has now hit a record high as the market realizes that not only will UK...
- External links 2008-11-12
Additional Resources
- Looking for Precedent in the Dollar's Behavior During Recession
- Kathy Lien submits: There have been 3 recessions in the past 30 years. In each of those recessions, the dollar weakened in the first six months of the recession, then gained strength in the next six. Twelve months into the current recession, we see this pattern in the...
- External links 2008-12-03
- Dollar Rally Should Continue As Recession Reality Sets In
- Kathy Lien submits: Fresh concerns about the global economy have triggered sharp gains in the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Risk aversion continues to seep through the markets as the National Bureau of Economic Research finally admits that the US economy fell into recession in December 2007....
- External links 2008-12-02
- Non-Farm Payrolls Signals End to Recession
- Kathy Lien submits: Friday morning's non-farm payrolls report is eliciting smiles across Wall Street as the hemorrhaging of jobs comes to an end. Only 345k Americans lost their jobs last month, signaling that the recession is over. Although the jobless rate breached 9% for the first time since...
- External links 2009-06-05
- Continuing Claims Signals End of Recession
- Kathy Lien submits: We had a number of surprises in U.S. economic data Thursday morning including the Philly Fed index and leading indicators, but the biggest surprise was definitely the decline in continuing claims. Since the beginning of the year, continuing claims, which measures the number of people...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Bush and Obama Work to Restore Confidence
- Kathy Lien submits: The US is now in a technical recession but that has not stopped the equity and currency market from rallying. The GDP number was not as bad as the market had feared but what really drove the markets higher was the Federal Reserve’s new Term...
- External links 2008-11-25
- Dow Up, Dollar Down
- Kathy Lien submits: The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 9000 intraday Thursday, driving the U.S. dollar lower against all of the higher yielding currencies. Although earnings have been mixed, risk appetite is back. Relatively healthy U.S. economic data and the Bank of Canada's comment that the country's recession...
- External links 2009-07-23
- Currencies Hit by Weak U.S. Data
- Kathy Lien submits: Friday morning's disappointing U.S. economic reports have weighed heavily on the currency and equity markets. Risk aversion is back with the dollar strengthening against the Euro and British pound but weakening against the Japanese Yen. Consumer prices on an annualized basis fell by the largest...
- External links 2009-08-14
- How Will the Dollar React to Non-Farm Payroll Report?
- Kathy Lien submits: The US economy has officially entered a recession and the labor market numbers that are due on Friday will confirm that. Not only do we expect the US economy to report its eleventh consecutive month of job losses but the job losses will probably be...
- External links 2008-12-04
- Currencies Crushed by Q2 GDP As Consumers Remain the Problem
- Kathy Lien submits: Safe haven flows rushed into the U.S. dollar despite the smaller than expected contraction in second quarter GDP. After shrinking by a 6.4 percent in the first quarter, the U.S. economy contracted by 1.0 percent between April and June. However, currency traders reacted negatively to...
- External links 2009-07-31
- U.S. Dollar: Overblown Expectations
- Kathy Lien submits: The price action that we have seen in the various currency pairs Friday is the consequence of overblown expectations. The financial markets have gotten way ahead of reality and so whenever there is any bad news, the skeptics and the bears come rushing out, reigniting...
- External links 2009-08-15
- Jobless Claims Highlight Seismic Challenges Facing U.S. Economy
- Kathy Lien submits: When the labor market is in trouble, the US economy is in trouble. Jobless claims rose 516k last week to the highest level since September 2001. The claims for unemployment benefits was only surpassed in the 2.5 weeks following 9/11. Extrapolating the jobless claims...
- External links 2008-11-13
- The Impact of a Strong Dollar on Corporate Earnings
- Kathy Lien submits: I have spoke often about the consequences of a strong currency. In the case of the US, the weak dollar in the first half of the year has helped to contribute to Q2 and for some Q3 corporate earnings as well. However I strongly believe...
- External links 2008-12-23
- Australian Rate Decision: How Low Will They Go?
- Kathy Lien submits: Compared to other G10 nations, the slowdown in the Australia’s economy has not been as deep. Of the eight major central banks, Australia currently has the highest interest rate. Tuesday evening, the RBA will be faced with the tough decision of cutting interest rates once...
- External links 2009-02-03
- Non-Farm Payrolls: The Bar Is Already Set Low
- Kathy Lien submits: Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report should continue the persistent and debilitating losses that are the hallmark of a recession. We are destined to see the thirteenth month of mounting job losses that is prone to sever the US’ ability to pull out of the economic crisis...
- External links 2009-02-05
- Non-Farm Payrolls Falls 467,000: Still Following 1980s Trajectory
- Kathy Lien submits: A total of 467k Americans lost their jobs in the month of June, driving the unemployment rate to a fresh quarter century high of 9.5 percent. The jobless rate was better than the market expected but the total number of job losses was worse. The...
- External links 2009-07-02
- Non-Manufacturing ISM Takes Toll on Markets
- Kathy Lien submits: The dollar is making some headway after Tuesday’s indecision, as the economic outlook suddenly does not seem so rosy. All major currencies are retreating off their latest multi-month highs as risk aversion flows boost the dollar and yen. Stock markets were quick to react to...
- External links 2009-08-05
- Euro Hits One Year Low as ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged
- Kathy Lien submits: The European Central Bank President has finally buckled under the weight of bank failures, recessions and slower global growth. Although the ECB left interest rates unchanged at 4.25 percent Thursday morning, Trichet has paved the way for an interest rate cut before the end of...
- External links 2008-10-02
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