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- Canada GDP (for August) Disappoints
- Marc Chandler submits:Canada reported that August GDP contracted by 0.1%, whereas the consensus expected a 0.1% increase. Small change for sure, but the sign is wrong. And it likely prevents the Canadian dollar from recovering from the recent slide that has brought it to a 4 week low against the...
- External links 2009-10-30
- Fed: The Credit Crisis' Impact on the Dollar
- Marc Chandler submits:The October issue of the NY Fed's monthly Current Issue was just released. There is an article that may prove interesting to further understand how the crisis impacted the dollar. It is written by Niall Coffey, the chief dealer for foreign exchange and a financial specialist in...
- External links 2009-10-28
- Honda: Adjusting for Currencies
- Marc Chandler submits:Currency adjustments help ease global imbalances. Perhaps not so much through prices, but through underlying economic activity.Press reports suggest that Honda HMC may be considering moving production of its popular FIT hatchback from Tokyo to the U.S. to offset the strength of the yen. Currently, Honda produces 8...
- External links 2009-10-20
- Weak Dollar Has Yet to Affect Import Prices
- Marc Chandler submits:The channel through which a weak currency fuels inflation is import prices. The US reported that import prices rose 0.1% in September, but are 12% lower on a year-over-year basis, which was slightly lower than consensus expectations. Excluding energy, core import prices rose 0.6% and are off 4.1%...
- External links 2009-10-14
- Declining Dollar: Blame U.S. Investors?
- Marc Chandler submits:With the US deficit large and rising, the appetite of foreign investors for US securities is keenly monitored. Often the TIC data is viewed in its aggregate form, which is really on a net basis, net that is of what American investors are doing. By looking at what...
- External links 2009-10-13
- Canadian Reserves: Country's Best Practices Show Will and Alternatives
- Marc Chandler submits: Canada reports its international reserves on a weekly basis. It just reported its reserves as of Sept 13. They stood at $57.9 bln, up about $635 mln in the past week, which appear largely to be a reflection of valuation. The swings in currency valuation often are...
- External links 2009-09-25
- China Finally Recognizes Its Excess Capacity
- Marc Chandler submits:Official Chinese news is reporting that the State Council is studying curbs on industries that are plagued with over-capacity, including steel and cement. Separately, the Aluminum Corp of China ACH, warned that Chinese smelters, traders and warehouses hold as much as 600k metric tons of inventories because of...
- External links 2009-08-26
- Pound Is Vulnerable Against the Euro, Likely the Dollar Too
- Marc Chandler submits: Sterling was the market's darlings over the last five months and was the best performing G7 currency. Between March 10 and Aug 5, sterling appreciated by more than a fifth against the U.S. dollar and by 10% against the euro. However, since the BOE unexpectedly extended its...
- External links 2009-08-20
- ECB and BOE: Adding Fuel to the Dollar Liquidity Fire
- Marc Chandler submits:The U.S. dollar has been sold off today and the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) have added fuel to the fire. They continue to provide dollars to their member banks, which then appear to turn around and sell them. While longer-dated dollar...
- External links 2009-11-25
- Why the Dollar is Continuing Lower
- Marc Chandler submits:The combination of the apparent resolution of the West LB situation and the FOMC minutes have conspired to send the US dollar broadly lower today. The FOMC minutes in particular have been seized upon. On one hand, it is unusual for the FOMC to give so much space...
- External links 2009-11-25
- What Bernanke's Comments All Mean
- Marc Chandler submits: Leaving aside the market's immediate reaction, Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments Monday about the dollar are very revealing; not just for his thinking, but for the fact that they likely reflect the thoughts of many senior officials in the Obama Administration as well. In its last FOMC statement,...
- External links 2009-11-17
- Bernanke: Don't Expect Declining Dollar to Prompt U.S. Policy Changes
- Marc Chandler submits:We have noted that, in recent weeks, Fed officials have not been shy about commenting about the dollar, even when unsolicited by reporters. The first comments from Bernanke on Monday pointed to this as well. Bernanke said that the Fed is keeping an eye on the dollar --...
- External links 2009-11-16
- Import Prices Continue to Trend Higher
- Marc Chandler submits:Although the market was expecting an increase closer to 1%, US import prices rose 0.7% in October. The underlying trend, however, is clear: Import prices have risen in all but two months thus far in 2009.The fact that import prices are still off 5.7% from a year ago...
- External links 2009-11-13
- Euro Options and the Spot Market
- Marc Chandler submits:The options market can often shed light on spot market activity. Indicative pricing in the options market suggests that while the euro is nearing the highs for the year, many participants seem unusually nervous. Often the options market moves in tandem with spot, so in a rising market...
- External links 2009-11-11
- Inflation Expectations: Exaggerated or On Track?
- Marc Chandler submits:There was much talk Monday about what appears to be rising inflation expectations in the U.S., with several market indicators capturing people's attention.First, the yield curve, measured by the difference between the 2-year yield and the 10-year yields, stands near 262 basis points, having risen now 21 bp...
- External links 2009-11-09
- June Report: Foreign Investors Still Stocking Up on Canadian Assets
- Marc Chandler submits: Canada reported that foreign investors bought a net C$10.5 bln of Canadian securities in June. This brings the total net foreign purchases in Q2 to a little more than C$38 bln compared with about C$23.5 in Q1 and less than C$1 bln in Q4 08. Foreign investors...
- External links 2009-08-18
- SNB Chief Jordan Is Cautiously Optmistic
- Marc Chandler submits: The Swiss National Bank's Jordan was quoted on the news wires Wednesday. He seems content with current Swiss franc exchange rates. He claims, as have other Swiss officials, that the intervention has been to prevent currency appreciation. This may remind one of the guy in the city...
- External links 2009-08-20
- Update: Brazil and Mexico Currency Outlook
- Marc Chandler submits: With the recent stream of macro-economic news, leaving aside Monday's Empire State survey, has been disappointing that this has helped trigger a dramatic wave of profit-taking. Last week, China reported exports are still falling and on Monday it reported that direct investment inflows extend their decline into...
- External links 2009-08-18
- Krugman vs. Ferguson: Hubris of Small Differences
- Marc Chandler submits: In various op-ed pages, the prolific economic historian Niall Ferguson and Nobel-prize winning economist-cum-columnist Paul Krugman are having a heated discussion. Their egos make them exaggerate what appear to be relatively minor differences, which are largely a question of emphasis. ...
- External links 2009-06-06
- GM Bankruptcy Isn't an Existential Challenge for the U.S.
- Marc Chandler submits: May auto sales were stronger than expected at a 9.9 million annual unit pace. In the same week, [[GM]] filed for bankruptcy, domestic auto sales rose to 7.4 million, the highest since December (Q1 average was 6.8 million). There are several, even if underappreciated, implications. ...
- External links 2009-06-03
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