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- What Bernanke's Comments All Mean
- Marc Chandler submits: Leaving aside the market's immediate reaction, Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments Monday about the dollar are very revealing; not just for his thinking, but for the fact that they likely reflect the thoughts of many senior officials in the Obama Administration as well. In its last FOMC statement,...
- External links 2009-11-17
- Honda: Adjusting for Currencies
- Marc Chandler submits:Currency adjustments help ease global imbalances. Perhaps not so much through prices, but through underlying economic activity.Press reports suggest that Honda HMC may be considering moving production of its popular FIT hatchback from Tokyo to the U.S. to offset the strength of the yen. Currently, Honda produces 8...
- External links 2009-10-20
- Japan's Monetary Policymakers Still at Odds
- Marc Chandler submits:The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy Wednesday, but Finance Minister Fujii opined that he thinks economic conditions are more severe than the BOJ appreciates. There was another area of disagreement, with the BOJ suggesting that the corporate bond and CP market is less dependent...
- External links 2009-10-14
- Weak Dollar Has Yet to Affect Import Prices
- Marc Chandler submits:The channel through which a weak currency fuels inflation is import prices. The US reported that import prices rose 0.1% in September, but are 12% lower on a year-over-year basis, which was slightly lower than consensus expectations. Excluding energy, core import prices rose 0.6% and are off 4.1%...
- External links 2009-10-14
- Declining Dollar: Blame U.S. Investors?
- Marc Chandler submits:With the US deficit large and rising, the appetite of foreign investors for US securities is keenly monitored. Often the TIC data is viewed in its aggregate form, which is really on a net basis, net that is of what American investors are doing. By looking at what...
- External links 2009-10-13
- Polish Political Scandal Could Signal Zloty Opportunity
- Marc Chandler submits:News that Polish Prime Minister Tusk is using the recent alleged corruption scandal to re-jig his cabinet in an attempt to rebuild support for his ruling Civic Platform Party has weighed on the zloty, as a wave of profit-taking on its strong 3-day advance is seen. Public support...
- External links 2009-10-07
- Canadian Reserves: Country's Best Practices Show Will and Alternatives
- Marc Chandler submits: Canada reports its international reserves on a weekly basis. It just reported its reserves as of Sept 13. They stood at $57.9 bln, up about $635 mln in the past week, which appear largely to be a reflection of valuation. The swings in currency valuation often are...
- External links 2009-09-25
- Poland: Higher Interest Rates Coming?
- Marc Chandler submits: The Polish zloty stabilized Tuesday after Monday's trade-deficit induced slide. The higher than expected August consumer price increase reinforces ideas that the Poland has reached the end of its easing cycle and that the next move will be higher rates, though we envisage this to be a...
- External links 2009-09-16
- China Update: Recovery Intact, But Little Incentive for Yuan Appreciation
- Marc Chandler submits:The combination of broad based US dollar weakness, especially pronounced since the start of the month, and expectations that China's export contraction is bottoming is helping send 12-month non-deliverable forward to its best level in 3 months this week. The PBOC has been fairly generous in their money...
- External links 2009-09-11
- China Finally Recognizes Its Excess Capacity
- Marc Chandler submits:Official Chinese news is reporting that the State Council is studying curbs on industries that are plagued with over-capacity, including steel and cement. Separately, the Aluminum Corp of China ACH, warned that Chinese smelters, traders and warehouses hold as much as 600k metric tons of inventories because of...
- External links 2009-08-26
- Euro-Swiss Ready to Rise
- Marc Chandler submits:Since Aug 10, the euro pulled back about 1.5% against the Swiss franc through last week low set on Friday near CHF1.5135. The fundamental backdrop has not changed. The Swiss National Bank remains committed to the quantitative easing strategy, which given the size of its domestic bond market,...
- External links 2009-08-24
- Pound Is Vulnerable Against the Euro, Likely the Dollar Too
- Marc Chandler submits: Sterling was the market's darlings over the last five months and was the best performing G7 currency. Between March 10 and Aug 5, sterling appreciated by more than a fifth against the U.S. dollar and by 10% against the euro. However, since the BOE unexpectedly extended its...
- External links 2009-08-20
- June Report: Foreign Investors Still Stocking Up on Canadian Assets
- Marc Chandler submits: Canada reported that foreign investors bought a net C$10.5 bln of Canadian securities in June. This brings the total net foreign purchases in Q2 to a little more than C$38 bln compared with about C$23.5 in Q1 and less than C$1 bln in Q4 08. Foreign investors...
- External links 2009-08-18
- SNB Chief Jordan Is Cautiously Optmistic
- Marc Chandler submits: The Swiss National Bank's Jordan was quoted on the news wires Wednesday. He seems content with current Swiss franc exchange rates. He claims, as have other Swiss officials, that the intervention has been to prevent currency appreciation. This may remind one of the guy in the city...
- External links 2009-08-20
- Update: Brazil and Mexico Currency Outlook
- Marc Chandler submits: With the recent stream of macro-economic news, leaving aside Monday's Empire State survey, has been disappointing that this has helped trigger a dramatic wave of profit-taking. Last week, China reported exports are still falling and on Monday it reported that direct investment inflows extend their decline into...
- External links 2009-08-18
- Fed: The Credit Crisis' Impact on the Dollar
- Marc Chandler submits:The October issue of the NY Fed's monthly Current Issue was just released. There is an article that may prove interesting to further understand how the crisis impacted the dollar. It is written by Niall Coffey, the chief dealer for foreign exchange and a financial specialist in...
- External links 2009-10-28
- Canada GDP (for August) Disappoints
- Marc Chandler submits:Canada reported that August GDP contracted by 0.1%, whereas the consensus expected a 0.1% increase. Small change for sure, but the sign is wrong. And it likely prevents the Canadian dollar from recovering from the recent slide that has brought it to a 4 week low against the...
- External links 2009-10-30
- Iceland's Krona Continues to Struggle Against the Euro
- Marc Chandler submits:Effective Monday, Iceland lifted its restrictions on capital outflows. New investors can now exchange their holdings for foreign currencies, provided the transactions are duly registered.Capital controls were imposed late last year following the collapse of Iceland's largest banks. The krona has been unable to keep pace with the...
- External links 2009-11-02
- Bernanke: Don't Expect Declining Dollar to Prompt U.S. Policy Changes
- Marc Chandler submits:We have noted that, in recent weeks, Fed officials have not been shy about commenting about the dollar, even when unsolicited by reporters. The first comments from Bernanke on Monday pointed to this as well. Bernanke said that the Fed is keeping an eye on the dollar --...
- External links 2009-11-16
- Greek Bonds Continue to Struggle Under Weak Aegean Economy
- Marc Chandler submits:Greek bonds continue to be worst performer among European bonds. The 10-year bond yield is up another 10 bp Monday after a move of roughly the same magnitude at the end of last week.When the new government under PM Papandreou elected early October claimed that the deficit it...
- External links 2009-11-16
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