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- Inflation Expectations: Exaggerated or On Track?
- Marc Chandler submits:There was much talk Monday about what appears to be rising inflation expectations in the U.S., with several market indicators capturing people's attention.First, the yield curve, measured by the difference between the 2-year yield and the 10-year yields, stands near 262 basis points, having risen now 21 bp...
- External links 2009-11-09
- Czech Reports This Week Could Spur Euro Rally
- Marc Chandler submits:The euro has slumped around 4% against the Czech koruna since November 2nd, and the news stream from Czech Republic has not been that supportive, giving the impression that koruna is being lifted by generalized factors.This has been a particularly difficult year for Czech politics. Recall that the...
- External links 2009-11-09
- All Signs Point to Recovery in China
- Marc Chandler submits:A flurry of Chinese data will be reported in the next 12-24 hours. The general picture that will be depicted by the data is of an economy that continues to recover from the global financial and economic shock of last year. There are three elements that will command...
- External links 2009-11-09
- The Bearish Case for the British Pound
- Marc Chandler submits:Sterling has been resilient Tuesday in the face of the Fitch warnings of the UK's rating vulnerability and the deterioration on the trade front. Supporting it has been reports suggesting that Norway's petroleum fund is looking favorable at some UK property investments, and M&A related activity. There are,...
- External links 2009-11-10
- China Update: Recovery Intact, But Little Incentive for Yuan Appreciation
- Marc Chandler submits:The combination of broad based US dollar weakness, especially pronounced since the start of the month, and expectations that China's export contraction is bottoming is helping send 12-month non-deliverable forward to its best level in 3 months this week. The PBOC has been fairly generous in their money...
- External links 2009-09-11
- China Finally Recognizes Its Excess Capacity
- Marc Chandler submits:Official Chinese news is reporting that the State Council is studying curbs on industries that are plagued with over-capacity, including steel and cement. Separately, the Aluminum Corp of China ACH, warned that Chinese smelters, traders and warehouses hold as much as 600k metric tons of inventories because of...
- External links 2009-08-26
- Euro-Swiss Ready to Rise
- Marc Chandler submits:Since Aug 10, the euro pulled back about 1.5% against the Swiss franc through last week low set on Friday near CHF1.5135. The fundamental backdrop has not changed. The Swiss National Bank remains committed to the quantitative easing strategy, which given the size of its domestic bond market,...
- External links 2009-08-24
- Pound Is Vulnerable Against the Euro, Likely the Dollar Too
- Marc Chandler submits: Sterling was the market's darlings over the last five months and was the best performing G7 currency. Between March 10 and Aug 5, sterling appreciated by more than a fifth against the U.S. dollar and by 10% against the euro. However, since the BOE unexpectedly extended its...
- External links 2009-08-20
- June Report: Foreign Investors Still Stocking Up on Canadian Assets
- Marc Chandler submits: Canada reported that foreign investors bought a net C$10.5 bln of Canadian securities in June. This brings the total net foreign purchases in Q2 to a little more than C$38 bln compared with about C$23.5 in Q1 and less than C$1 bln in Q4 08. Foreign investors...
- External links 2009-08-18
- SNB Chief Jordan Is Cautiously Optmistic
- Marc Chandler submits: The Swiss National Bank's Jordan was quoted on the news wires Wednesday. He seems content with current Swiss franc exchange rates. He claims, as have other Swiss officials, that the intervention has been to prevent currency appreciation. This may remind one of the guy in the city...
- External links 2009-08-20
- Update: Brazil and Mexico Currency Outlook
- Marc Chandler submits: With the recent stream of macro-economic news, leaving aside Monday's Empire State survey, has been disappointing that this has helped trigger a dramatic wave of profit-taking. Last week, China reported exports are still falling and on Monday it reported that direct investment inflows extend their decline into...
- External links 2009-08-18
- China Monetary Developments
- Marc Chandler submits:Chinese banks have signaled the intention to cut back on new loan issuance, but the PBOC has not changed its declaratory or operational policy. It is not imposing new and lower loan quotas. It appears to be using its moral suasion. This initially weighed on Chinese stocks. July-Aug...
- External links 2009-08-14
- With Europe Limiting Official Sales, Which Way Will Gold Go?
- Marc Chandler submits: The price of gold was off about 1% Monday, roughly matching the slide before the weekend. What is noteworthy about gold's heavier tone is that last Friday 16 European central banks agreed to limited their gold sales to about 400 metric tonnes a year for the next...
- External links 2009-08-11
- Three Signs It's Time to Buy the U.S. Dollar
- Marc Chandler submits:We retain a favorable medium term outlook for the US dollar, in spite of its recent fall to new lows for the year against a broad swath of currencies. However, we are not prepared to call a dollar bottom now and issue a strategic buy recommendation. Here is...
- External links 2009-08-07
- Good Jobs Data Hits the U.S. Dollar
- Marc Chandler submits: Non-farm payrolls lost 247k jobs, a great deal lower than nearly every expected and the unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 9.4%. The manufacturing sector lost "only" 52k jobs, compared with a revised 131k loss in June. Hourly earnings rose 0.2% instead of 0.1% that was expected and...
- External links 2009-08-07
- Poland: Higher Interest Rates Coming?
- Marc Chandler submits: The Polish zloty stabilized Tuesday after Monday's trade-deficit induced slide. The higher than expected August consumer price increase reinforces ideas that the Poland has reached the end of its easing cycle and that the next move will be higher rates, though we envisage this to be a...
- External links 2009-09-16
- Canadian Reserves: Country's Best Practices Show Will and Alternatives
- Marc Chandler submits: Canada reports its international reserves on a weekly basis. It just reported its reserves as of Sept 13. They stood at $57.9 bln, up about $635 mln in the past week, which appear largely to be a reflection of valuation. The swings in currency valuation often are...
- External links 2009-09-25
- Taiwan Pulls a Brazil
- Marc Chandler submits:Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission on Tuesday announced that, effective immediately, foreign investors were banned from parking funds in time deposits. Moreover, foreign investors cannot extend their existing time deposits when they mature.The ostensible reason for the ban is to curb currency speculation, according to officials. As of the...
- External links 2009-11-10
- Brazil Mulling Increased Currency Intervention?
- Marc Chandler submits:Media reports are playing up local press stories that Brazil officials are evaluating additional measures to slow capital inflows which are driving the Brazilian real higher. The 2% tax may have led to some greater volatility in the currency, but net-net the currency remains firm. Other ideas being...
- External links 2009-11-05
- Brazil's New Real Tax: Minimizing Exposure Through ADRs
- Marc Chandler submits:Investors continue to grapple with the 2% front-end tax on Brazilian Real purchases for bond and equity investments. One might expect that the efficiency of the market is such that arbitrage will keep the ADR in line with what one would pay for the local shares,...
- External links 2009-11-04
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