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- Mechel: Glad I Got Out When I Did
- Trader Mark submits: Long-time readers will remember former holding Mechel MTL.... I just pulled up a quote and see it is hovering just over $4. Ouch. Russia has been among the worst stock markets this year, closing their market almost on a weekly basis now. Mr. Putin didn't help Mechel...
- External links 2008-10-27
- Will CF Industries Take Itself Private?
- Trader Mark submits: CF Industries CF is yet another fertilizer company whose valuation simply makes little sense. It reported stellar earnings Monday and was up 12% early Tuesday morning. That sounds exciting, except when you realize that takes it all the way back to Friday's pricing... which is the...
- External links 2008-10-29
- Arcelor Mittal Cutting Production by 30%
- Trader Mark submits: Yesterday was an ugly day for earning reports - spent quite a long time reading through companies' reports from sectors across the spectrum, and it was one of the worst days I can ever remember. Bad news and pulled guidance everywhere. As we said in the spring,...
- External links 2008-11-06
- Rebuilding Potash
- Trader Mark submits: Another company with a sizeable buyback program in place and massive cash flow... Potash POTThis was one of the hedge fund's largest holdings, so many of the previous holders should be out of the stock by now... by Trader Mark
- External links 2008-11-20
- Joy Global's Ludicrous Valuations
- Trader Mark submits: I am initiating Joy Global JOYG just over $15 with a 4.9% stake. We have now entered ludicrous valuations.I was looking at this name under $42 but held off [Sep 29: Interested in Joy Global Under $42 But...] by Trader Mark
- External links 2008-11-20
- Mosaic Warns, Stock Is Up
- Trader Mark submits: This is the type of action we need to see market-wide to begin to return to "investing", rather than putting chips down for a 2-48 hour trade. Mosaic MOS warned on sales yesterday, and today the stock is up. When this happens, we begin to believe all...
- External links 2008-12-03
- Joy Global at the Heart of the Commodity Machine
- Trader Mark submits: Joy Global JOYG and Bucryus BUCY are two companies we want to keep on eye as they are literally and figuratively at the heart of the machine of commodity production. Remember, our long term thesis here is the lack of investment in commodities that these low prices...
- External links 2008-12-17
- Adding Some Potash after Goldman Downgrade
- Trader Mark submits: Goldman is out with a note this morning against some of the major names in the agriculture space. What they write is effectively the reason we are going to have a commodity issue in the years to come; lack of investment now will cause shortages when the...
- External links 2008-12-22
- Commodities Made a Round Trip in 2008
- Trader Mark submits: Quite a staggering table via Bespoke Investment's blog on the performance of commodities in 2008. What is so amazing is halfway through the year, so many of these commodities were enjoying the performance of a lifetime, and within a few months many "enjoyed" the downfall of a...
- External links 2008-12-28
- Mosaic's Earnings Results Not Surprising
- Trader Mark submits: After Mosaic's MOS warning in early December [Dec 2: Mosaic Warns, Stock Up] and Potash's POT a few weeks later [Dec 19: Potash Cuts Full Year Guidance; Intrepid Potash Falls off Cliff], yesterday's results were not at all unexpected. The open question is "what is priced...
- External links 2009-01-06
- Monsanto Earnings - Quite Awesome
- Trader Mark submits: Mosaic MOS, which we sold yesterday, is riding the Monsanto MON earnings report today. They are different businesses, but both are in the agriculture space. Monsanto has confused me from a stock perspective; despite having one of the highest "moats" in the business barriers to entry,...
- External links 2009-01-07
- Insituform Technologies Will Clean Up
- Trader Mark submits:I have a target list of about 5 stocks I've been waiting to fall to my target areas - these are small/mid cap generals who have been oblivious to the market's downfall the past month. One such name is Insituform Technologies INSU which I've had a limit order...
- External links 2009-02-03
- Aecom Technology Executing Well, but Fundamentals Don't Matter
- Trader Mark submits: Continuing to work through last week's earning reports, on we move to infrastructure company AECOM Technology ACM. We highlighted this name at the turn of the year [Jan 2: I like Zach's Idea on AECOM Technology] as a way to get a more direct exposure to...
- External links 2009-02-17
- Fluor and Flowserve Continue Their Best of Breed Ways
- Trader Mark submits: We remain in a market where fundamentals seem to matter very little, and student body trading ("everyone in!" everyone out!") is dominant, but Fluor FLR and Flowserve FLS continue to be impressive in their respective niches.First, Fluor FLR the largest "global infrastructure/engineering" firm out there - unlike...
- External links 2009-02-27
- Mosaic: Cargill Rumors Heat It Up
- Trader Mark submits: Sometimes you get lucky - I'm chalk this up in that column. Mosaic MOS is surging past 8% today on the rumor mill of a Cargill takeover. This was one of the positions we loaded back into this morning (sorry I just noticed I posted the...
- External links 2009-02-27
- WSJ: Steelmakers Are Jumping the Stimulus Gun
- Trader Mark submits: It appears some business people are no different than investors at extrapolating some moderate change in trend and creating a full blown thesis out of it. Now the irony for those investors who try to use logic is each time a commodity upticks in price even a...
- External links 2009-03-16
- Nucor Blows Up After Steelmakers Jump the Gun
- Trader Mark submits: We are really timing our stories quite perfectly of late; we talked about the pain in solar this weekend, then Energy Conversion Devices ENER blew up; we wrote about the hype that is "China will lead us back" and how steel companies are jumping the gun based...
- External links 2009-03-18
- Potash Continues to Shake off Bad News
- Trader Mark submits: As we wrote in Tuesday's piece, it is interesting to see the fertilizer stocks "relatively" shake off some quite bad news of late [Mar 4, 2009: Potash, Mosaic, Intrepid Potash Come Under Pressure After Talk of Uralkai 25% Price Cut]. There is a lot of Mergers &...
- External links 2009-03-18
- Is Copper Headed for a Fall?
- Trader Mark submits: It might seem strange to focus so much on one metal, but copper is truly an industrial king pin and the recent jump in the metal - apparently due to restocking in China [Mar 23: FT.com - Chinese Stockpiling Spurs Copper Price Rally] has helped support the...
- External links 2009-04-07
- Mosaic's Earnings Miss Is not so Terrible
- Trader Mark submits: Earnings season is Charles Dickens time for me: the best of times more information and the worst of times rabid overreactions by huge swathes of people who do nothing more than look at a headline and make rapid fire decisions based on it. As long time readers...
- External links 2009-04-09
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