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- Middle Kingdom Malaise? China's Latest GDP Figures
- Menzie Chinn submits: Monday's announcement that Chinese growth was decelerating was not surprising; that it decelerated to below the consensus of 9.7% growth to 9% (y/y) in 2008Q3 was a surprise. This was reflected in the headlines: "China growth rate slows sharply" (FT), "China less likely to buffer world...
- External links 2008-10-24
- The Debate over the Stimulus Plan
- Our optimist, Professor Menzie Chinn of the University of Wisconsin, sees a bold investment that came not a moment too soon. Our skeptic, Garett Jones of George Mason University, smells a boondoggle. Follow their debate and decide for yourself who's right…When the president signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act...
- Articles 2009-03-17
- The $787 Billion Question
- What are the odds that Obama's massive new spending plan will succeed?As the Obama administration tries everything to get us out of the current economic crisis, nothing has proven more contentious than its $787 billion stimulus package. Is it the essential jolt that will jump start a recovery, or is...
- Articles 2009-03-24
Additional Resources
- Unpleasant Synergies: Recessions, Credit Crunches and Housing Busts
- Menzie Chinn submits: From the abstract of a new paper by Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose and Marco E. Terrones, entitled "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?" Available online here: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic...
- External links 2008-08-07
- US's Current Account Adjustment Redux: What's Different this Time Around?
- Menzie Chinn submits: The dollar is on the rebound against the euro [0], [1]. The non-oil trade deficit is shrinking as a share of GDP [2]. Is this a replay of the 1980's adjustment process? A month ago at a conference in Siena, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti outlined...
- External links 2008-08-12
- International Outlook: The View from the Dallas Fed
- Menzie Chinn submits: Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Janet Koech at the Dallas Fed present their perspective on the international macro outlook. The first is particularly interesting to me. Chart 1 from Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Janet Koech They state: by Menzie Chinn
- External links 2008-08-13
- Will Drilling Offshore Affect World Oil Prices?
- Menzie Chinn submits: Various individuals have argued for drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf [OCS] as a means to affect the price of oil. This is true despite this recent assessment by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, the Federal Government's nonpartisan analytical group on energy issues. From...
- External links 2008-08-17
- What Do Alternate Measures Say About Consumer Inflation, and Why?
- Menzie Chinn submits: What to make of the different measures of inflation being faced by consumers? In Figure 1, I plot four measures: the standard CPI-U, the CPI research series, the chained CPI, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator. by Menzie Chinn
- External links 2008-08-22
- Another Look at the Labor Market
- Menzie Chinn submits: Over the past few months, I've heard that, while job creation is insufficient to keep unemployment rates constant, job losses have not been consistent with recession. More recently, we've heard a slight modification on this "talking point". Commenting on the August 1 labor market release, WSJ...
- External links 2008-08-24
- The Dollar and Trade Deficit: How Does Productivity Fit In?
- Menzie Chinn submits: Why is the trade deficit, even taking out oil, so large when the dollar is so weak? Maybe some insights can be gleaned from productivity measures. In Figure 1, net exports ex. oil is plotted against the real trade weighted exchange rate of...
- External links 2008-08-26
- So Why Does It Feel Like a Recession?
- Menzie Chinn submits: The preliminary GDP release yesterday provided a number of surprises. The first surprise was not that GDP was higher than the advance release given the June trade figures reported earlier this month, but rather that at 3.3% it exceeded the 2.8% [SAAR] of the consensus [0]....
- External links 2008-08-29
- Extending JGTRRA & EGTRRA Under the CBO's March 2008 Baseline
- Menzie Chinn submits: There are many moving parts to McCain's budget policy (see McCain site on the economy, [0]), so I can only undertake a partial analysis. That being said, extension of JGTRRA and EGTRRA is the most concrete, and easy to score, component, exactly because the CBO has...
- External links 2008-09-02
- Corporate Tax Policy, Budget Deficits and Capital Stock in a Neoclassical Model of Investment
- Menzie Chinn submits: Or, What would be the net effect on investment of the McCain tax plan? Figure 1: Real nonresidential fixed investment blue and investment in equipment and software red, SAAR. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA GDP release of August 28,...
- External links 2008-09-04
- Three Pictures from August Employment Situation Release
- Menzie Chinn submits: The employment situation release seems like old news, and Jim has already teased out some of the most important aspects in his post. However, I thought a little more context would be useful, given that some observers still think a recession can be avoided. From the...
- External links 2008-09-08
- Palin, On the Ongoing Financial Crisis
- Menzie Chinn submits: In response to the largest de facto nationalization in US history, we have this example of Governor Palin's comprehension of this issue ABC News: Saturday in Colorado Springs, Colo., Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said, "The fact is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have gotten...
- External links 2008-09-09
- Taylor Rules, Synchronized Recession and Potential for Competitive Depreciation
- Menzie Chinn submits: In Monday's FT, "All in this together" assessed the possibility of a roughly synchronized downturn in the world's major economies, with the United States, ironically enough, suffering the smallest hit. This brings up all sorts of interesting questions regarding exchange rates, if one believes that Taylor...
- External links 2008-09-10
- Source of Trade Deficit Reductions: Exports, Imports or Prices?
- Menzie Chinn submits: Yesterday's July trade release was a little bit of a surprise, due to oil [1]; Haver covers the numbers. Calculated Risk discussed the release, and actually took the outcome as a fairly positive, albeit with some anxiety about whether exports will keep up the robust growth...
- External links 2008-09-12
- Has Q2 Growth Affected the Output Gap?
- Menzie Chinn submits: In "Redefining Recession", The Economist discusses some of the difficulties in interpreting the "R" word. Since the article juxtaposed output gaps against the conventional NBER definition, I thought this would be a good time to update my post on output gaps, using the latest GDP data,...
- External links 2008-09-14
- Back to the Real Side of the Economy: The Recession Watch
- Menzie Chinn submits: Only on a day like yesterday does an over 1 percent decrease in industrial output move to third page. But this item (and this hilarious article h/t Economists View) reminded me to update the indicators used by the NBER BCDC. Their trajectories are, in general, not...
- External links 2008-09-16
- Chinese Trade Rising, Surprisingly
- Menzie Chinn submits: I was surprised by this item from the BBC: Chinese trade surplus at new high by Menzie Chinn
- External links 2008-10-02
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