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- Do Trade Policies Matter?
- Michael Pettis submits: One of my blog readers, Kalasend, responded to Thursday’s entry by asking about the composition of US-Chinese trade, and I think the question is interesting enough to be discussed in a separate entry, rather than in the comments section. In his response he pointed out that...
- External links 2009-03-10
- Why do Chinese Save?
- Michael Pettis submits: My apologies, but once again I have been too busy traveling to post as often as I would like. I am currently in Malaga, in southern Spain, in my family’s home, where incidentally I can see first-hand the consequences of the global economic crisis. After...
- External links 2009-05-31
- Stimulus in China: At What Cost?
- Michael Pettis submits: Monday is the second day of the dreaded gaokao, the national college entrance exam that more than half of all Chinese kids in their age cohort will sit to determine whether or not they will go to university (just over 60% of the test takers will...
- External links 2009-06-08
- China: Debt Is Up, Trade Is Down
- Michael Pettis submits: I am still working on my piece on the global savings adjustment and will probably post it in the next week or so. The main point is to discuss what the implications are for China if we see simultaneously over the next few years an increase...
- External links 2009-06-15
- What Increased U.S. Savings Means for China
- Michael Pettis submits: I am, still trying to work out the implications for China of a rise in US household savings, but here is how I see it. I welcome comments that may help me refine or refute this argument. by Michael Pettis
- External links 2009-06-21
- China: Can the RMB Be More Undervalued Today than It Was Last Year?
- Michael Pettis submits: William Cline and John Williamson published on Vox an interesting piece earlier this month (June 18), titled “Equilibrium Exchange Rates,” in which they try to “estimate a set of medium-run fundamental equilibrium exchange rates compatible with moderating external imbalances” for the 30 largest economies. They assume...
- External links 2009-06-24
- Loan Growth Not Boosting Confidence in China?s 'Green Shoots'
- Michael Pettis submits: “China’s overall surge in credit in the first half of 2009,” an article in yesterday’s People’s Daily assures us, “is normal and healthy; however problems still exist in the structure, quality and flow of credit. China should continue to optimize credit structure and guard against potential...
- External links 2009-06-30
- China: Explosion in New Lending
- Michael Pettis submits: I don’t have time to do a long entry, but in my June 30 entry I marveled at the huge explosion in new lending, and claimed that credible rumors suggested that total new loans for June would be an astonishing RMB 1.2 trillion. That would...
- External links 2009-07-08
- Unimpressed with China?s High Reserve and GDP Growth Numbers
- Michael Pettis submits: My blog has been blocked in China. Given all the internet blocking that has happened in the past few months I guess this is not much of a surprise, and I was sort of waiting for it to happen, even while I was hoping that it...
- External links 2009-07-16
- China: Exports vs. Domestic Demand, The Argument Rages
- Michael Pettis submits: Friday’s Financial Times and last week’s Economic Observer had articles that display the kinds of confusion that economic crises can create among policymakers. The Financial Times article was actually an opinion piece written by Wang Qishan – a Vice premier in the State Council and...
- External links 2009-05-08
- Distortions in the Chinese Lending Environment
- Michael Pettis submits: Things have been so busy this past week with various writing commitments and with the celebration of the third anniversary of my music club (four amazing shows with some of Beijing’s greatest artists and a lot of support and coverage from local music scene participants an...
- External links 2009-05-03
- The Death of the Asian Development Model
- Michael Pettis submits: One of the few areas in which the Chinese fiscal stimulus package is unquestionably having a positive effect is on growth forecasts – although mainly because forecasts seem to be coincident indicators more than leading indicators. In the past couple of week Morgan Stanley raised its...
- External links 2009-04-26
- China: Analyzing Trade, CPI Numbers
- Michael Pettis submits: Deflation and debt On Monday CPI and PPI numbers for February came out. CPI was down 1.6% year and year and PPI was down 4.5%, in line with or slightly below expectations and, according to Bloomberg, the highest rate of deflation among the 78 countries they follow....
- External links 2009-03-11
- China: Replenishing Bank Capital
- Michael Pettis submits: One of the students in Peking University’s Guanghua Students Monetary Policy Committee, a group for which I am an adviser, put together last week a summary of plans to raise capital adequacy ratios for Chinese banks. I thought it would be useful to reproduce his...
- External links 2009-03-16
- Did China Experience January Hot Money Outflows?
- Michael Pettis submits: The market or at least that part of the market that obsesses over balance of payment flows was swept with rumors Tuesday that foreign exchange reserves were down in January by $30 billion. My experience with these sorts of rumors is that they tend to...
- External links 2009-03-17
- Talk of New Reserve Currency Will Probably Lead Nowhere
- Michael Pettis submits: The number one topic of conversation right now seems to be an essay posted in both English and Chinese on the PBoC’s website by PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan. In it Governor Zhou argues that the world needs a new and better reserve currency, one not dominated...
- External links 2009-03-24
- China's Graduates
- Michael Pettis submits: Last week China Daily had an interesting article on job prospects for university graduates on the mainland. In 2006, as a reaction to rising unemployment among college graduates – even with GDP growth buzzing at rates above 12% – the government launched a program to...
- External links 2009-03-31
- Is Governor Zhou a Closet Bernanke-ite?
- Michael Pettis submits: I have recently finished reading Martin Wolf’s latest book, Fixing Global Finance, and I strongly recommend it for its very clear laying out of the global balance of payments issues behind the global crisis. I should warn my readers that Wolf and I have come to...
- External links 2009-04-08
- China: New Trade and Reserve Numbers
- Michael Pettis submits: Exports in March dropped a less-than-expected 17.1% from the same time last year – below expectations of 20% and the 21.1% drop for the first two months of 2009. Most of the articles I read in the Chinese and foreign press including, not surprisingly, comments from...
- External links 2009-04-13
- China: Let's Declare the Crisis Over
- Michael Pettis submits: I guess there is nothing like a summit meeting in the sunshine island of Hainan to bring out our optimism, but the speakers at the Boao Forum over the weekend seem to have been in fierce competition to see who could more forcefully declare the global...
- External links 2009-04-20
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