Resources

3 Resources for

overconfidence

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BNET Resources

Confidence: A Vicious Cycle
During a hobbled economy isn't the only time that people struggle with confidence, of course. The truth is, issues surrounding confidence bubble up 365 days a year. ...
Tags: Confidence, Performance Management, Tools & Techniques, Leadership, Real Estate, Mergers & Acquisitions, Human Resources, Workforce Management, Management, Business Operations, Investment, Finance, Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Managing, Managing a Team, Overconfidence, Economy, Downturn, Recession, Andrew Tilin
Articles 2009-04-21
How Confident Are You? Take the Test
Here's a quick guide to seeing where you land on the confidence spectrum, plus advice for improving your game. Overconfident ...
Tags: Employee, Leader, Leadership, Corporate Governance, Games, Management, Business Operations, Corporate Law, Personal Technology, Confidence, Leading, Downturn, Recession, Managing in a Recession, Overconfidence, Michael Dell, Jack Welch, Andrew Tilin
Articles 2009-04-21
Mastering Confidence
It's easily lost, dangerous in large quantities, and elusive to pin down. Learn how to maintain — and wield — the perfect amount of confidence. During these rough times, it's easy for your confidence — like so many other things — to spiral downward. You probably find yourself asking...
Tags: Confidence, Managing, Managing a Team, BNET Feature Package, Downturn, Recession, Overconfidence
Articles 2009-04-21

Additional Resources

Managing Overconfidence in Pricing
Insurers can overcome mispricing by taking practical steps to implement a "Control Cycle." The cycle improves decision making by enabling actuaries and underwriters to learn from the past. If insurers did a better job of managing "overconfidence" among their actuaries and underwriters when they make pricing and underwriting decisions, those...
Tags: Towers Perrin, Actuary, Insurance Company, Underwriter, Pricing Strategy, Insurance, Pricing, Marketing Research, Business Operations, Corporate Insurance, Marketing
White papers 2004-02-01
Managing Overconfidence
For years, behavioral scientists have talked about the need for businesses to manage overconfidence. Nowhere is the issue of overconfidence more important than in the property/casualty insurance industry, particularly in pricing and underwriting. Actuaries and underwriters make critical assumptions, based on imperfect knowledge, about the future costs of business being...
Tags: Towers Perrin, Pricing Strategy, Pricing, Marketing Research, Marketing
White papers 2003-03-01
Who Makes Acquisitions?: A Test of the Overconfidence Hypothesis
This paper analyze whether the volume and returns of merger activities are affected by CEO overconfidence. Overconfident CEOs over-estimate their ability to generate returns and perceive outside finance to be over-priced. As a result, they undertake value-destroying mergers when they have abundant internal funds, and they may forego value-creating merger...
Tags: University Of Pennsylvania, Merger, CEO, Mergers & Acquisitions, Investment, Finance
White papers 2004-09-28
The 'white overalls' of overconfidence - recent failures of high technology
The "white overalls' of overconfidence After so many years of accident-free, "nominal' technological performances, the timing of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, amidst three U.S. space program failures, reminds us of something we tend to forget: Even the highest technology is operated by human beings. And it appears there...
Tags: NASA
Research articles 2000-02-01
CEO Overconfidence And The Urge To Merge
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) take place to achieve economies of scale and maximize shareholders' returns. In recent years, CEOs have shown an urge for M&As. The paper argues that this urge is mainly to benefit themselves rather than the shareholders. M&As mean ‘big' money for the CEOs since the same...
Tags: M&A, CEO, Mergers & Acquisitions, Investment, Finance
White papers 2004-02-25
Investor Attention: Overconfidence and Category Learning
Motivated by psychological evidence that attention is a scarce cognitive resource, this paper models investors' attention allocation in learning and study the effects of this on asset-price dynamics. The paper shows that limited investor attention leads to "category-learning" behavior, i.e., investors tend to process more market and sector-wide information than...
Tags: National Bureau Of Economic Research, Investor, Financial Accounting, Finance
White papers 2005-06-01
Mauresmo wary of overconfidence against Spanish underdogs
AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France AFP — French number one Amelie Mauresmo insisted they would be wary of falling into the trap of overconfidence in this weekend's Fed Cup semi-final tie here against Spain. France are favourites against the lowly-ranked Spaniards, as the hosts bid to meet champions Russia in the final...
Tags: Agence France-Presse, champion, Federal Reserve Board, France, Games, Spain
Research articles 2005-07-08
Developing Presence
Presence is an elusive human quality that mysteriously enables a person to command respect, or at least attention. Although some people believe you are born with presence and others that it develops as a by-product of success, it is probably a combination of the two. You can certainly nurture and...
Articles 2007-02-15
Did Cockiness Cause the Crisis? Did the Bailout Make it Worse?
The Find: If Malcolm Gladwell is right and cockiness caused the financial crisis, than Business Insider thinks the bailout only made Wall Street's problems worse. The Source: John Carney writing on Business Insider. The Takeaway: Easy reading author and popular idea man...
Tags: Financial, Bailout, Financial Accounting, Government, Finance, Jessica Stillman
Blog posts 2009-07-20
M&A Failure Often Follows M&A Success
The Find: One successful merger or acquisition may actually make a CEO less likely to find success with M&A decisions in the future. The Source: An article in the "Management Insights" feature in the current issue of "Management Science." The Takeaway: If your CEO...
Tags: Jessica Stillman, Finance, Investment, Mergers & Acquisitions, CEO, M&A
Blog posts 2008-06-13
Conventions Booked at Future Center in Biloxi, Miss.(Originated from The Sun Herald, Biloxi, Miss.)
BILOXI, Miss.--May 17--Call it overconfidence, but Coast Coliseum executive director Bill Holmes has booked conventions into a building that isn't even built. BILOXI, Miss.--May 17--Call it overconfidence, but Coast Coliseum executive director Bill Holmes has booked conventions into a building that isn't even built.
Tags: Sun Microsystems Inc.
Research articles 1996-05-17
Heuristics and Biases: An Excellent Introduction
My friend Elie Yudkowsky, an extraordinary thinker from the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, gave me a copy of his paper Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks.It is the single best discussion of heuristics and biases within the framework of cognitive psychology I've read. I highly recommend you...
Tags: General, Ben Casnocha, Elie Yudkowsky
Blog posts 2007-05-27
Deals Without Delusions
The Idea in Brief Half of all acquiring companies pay more for target firms than they're worth. Often it's because of executives' mental biases: Their interest in a deal keeps them from being objective about its value....
Tags: Due Diligence, Acquisitions, Mergers, In Brief, Harvard Business Review, GE Capital Inc., Article, Acquisition, M&A, Antidote, Mergers & Acquisitions, Corporate Law, Investment, Finance, Business Operations, Dan Lovallo, Patrick Viguerie, Robert Uhlaner, John Horn
Articles 2008-04-01
"Lessons from Failed Corporate Marriages
The corporate divorce rate is distressingly high, nearly 50 percent. That is to say, almost one out of every two transactional marriages ends in failure. This is the case whether the transaction is a merger, an acquisition or a leveraged buyout. The marriage process typically includes detailed plans, projections and...
Tags: Booz Allen Hamilton Inc., Mergers & Acquisitions, Corporate Law, Financial Services, Investment, Finance, Business Operations
White papers 2003-01-01
The Seven Deadly Negotiating Sins
An outsourcing negotiation is a complex endeavor, with interwoven financial, technical, performance, people, and legal issues. There are seven very common mistakes both vendors and customers make in negotiating outsourcing contracts. This article will help you spot those mistakes that can be corrected in your own negotiating team and exploit...
Tags: OutSourcing Journal, Outsourcing Negotiation, Outsourcing, It Operations, Business Operations, Outsourcing & Subcontracting
White papers 2001-08-01
Surviving And Thriving After A Supply Chain Perfect Storm
Brimming with overconfidence, Helmac Products undertook a corporate relocation, an acquisition and an ERP installation within an eight-month period. Numerous problems ensued, but with the help of consultants the household goods distributor is back on track and growing at a 46 percent annual rate. The company certainly didn't know when...
Tags: Keller International Publishing, Relocation, Supply Chain, Supply Chain Management (SCM), Mergers & Acquisitions, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Corporate Law, Business Operations, Enterprise Software, Software, Investment, Finance
Case studies 2001-11-01
Rationality, Overconfidence and Leadership
This paper examines the process by which individuals get selected to be leaders and the attributes of leaders. It develops a model in which managers of a priori unknown ability are being judged relative to each other to determine who should be appointed the leader of the group. Managers are...
Tags: Leader, Leadership, Management
White papers 2000-12-21
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