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- Probability Distribution
- a mathematical formula showing the probability for each value of a variable in a statistical study
- Probability Distribution definition on BNET »
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- Corporate Risk Analysis
- The purpose in this article is to show that every item written into a firm's profit and loss account and its balance sheet is a stochastic variable with a probability distribution derived from probability distributions for each factor of production. Using this approach one is able to derive a probability...
- White papers 2001-11-01
Additional Resources
- A New Scheme for Real-Time Loop Music Production Based On Granular Similarity and Probability Control
- In this paper, a new concept of real-time loop music production is introduced, along with its implementation in Pd. This scheme tends to improvise loop music based on very limited pattern loop sample materials. Four loops, each divided into 32 grains, work at the same time. Analysis of the spectral...
- White papers 2002-09-16
- An Efficient Trajectory Method For Probabilistic Inventory-Production-Distribution Problems
- We consider a supply chain operating in an uncertain environment: the customers' demand is characterized by a discrete probability distribution. A probabilistic programming approach is adopted for constructing an inventory-production-distribution plan over a multi-period planning horizon. The plan does not allow the backlogging of the unsatisfied demand, and minimizes the...
- White papers 2006-03-01
- The Distribution of the Interval of the Cox Process With Shot Noise Intensity for Insurance Claims and its Moments
- Applying piecewise deterministic Markov processes theory, the probability generating function of the Cox process, incorporating with shot noise process as the claim intensity, is obtained. The paper also derives the Laplace transform of the distribution of the shot noise process at claim jump times, using stationary assumption of the shot...
- White papers 2004-08-25
- Portfolio Optimization When Assets Have the Gaussian Mixture Distribution
- Portfolios of assets whose returns have the Gaussian mixture distribution are optimized in the static setting to find portfolio weights and efficient frontiers using the probability of outperforming a target return and Hodges' modified Sharpe ratio objective functions. The sensitivities of optimal portfolio weights to the probability of the market...
- White papers 2003-02-18
- The Distribution Builder: A Tool For Inferring Investor Preferences
- From the executive summary: ‘Distribution Builder is an interactive tool that can elicit information about an investor's preferences. The information can be used when making decisions about investment alternatives over time for a particular investor. The approach can also be employed when conducting surveys designed to obtain data on a...
- White papers 2000-10-10
- Advanced Techniques for Modeling Terrorism Risk
- Terrorism risk differs in kind from natural catastrophes because of the element of intent. As a consequence, game theory is an important analysis tool. This paper presents a highly simplified model of terrorism risk and uses game theory to develop a probability distribution of losses. Terrorism risk shares features with...
- White papers 2002-02-01
- Matrix Risk Management
- The global deregulating energy market faces a problem: risk management. Up until now, the methodologies and mathematics behind the measurement of energy risk have been handed down from academia and the financial markets. Over the years, it has become increasingly obvious that these methodologies are not necessarily appropriate for application...
- White papers 2002-01-01
- Analyzing Losses From Hazard Exposure: A Conservative Probabilistic Estimate Using Supply Chain Risk Simulation
- This paper presents a supply chain risk analysis that is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of a Generalized Semi-Markov Process (G.S.M.P.) model. Specifically, the authors' seek to estimate the probability distribution of supply chain losses caused by disruptions. This distribution is computed conditional on conservative hypotheses which are the...
- White papers 2004-11-11
- The Equilibrium Distributions Of Value For Risky Stocks And Bonds
- Within a unified theory for stocks and corporate bonds, based on dynamic optimization by the investors, this article derives analytical expressions for the momentary distributions of the expected price, respectively known as approximate lognormal with systematic deviations and double exponential. Market equibilirum is regarded as a dynamic equilibrium characterized by...
- White papers 2001-04-01
- Learning about Beta: A New Look at CAPM Tests
- This paper develops an equilibrium model of learning about time-varying beta. In the model, the capital asset pricing model CAPM works for investors' probability distribution. However, mispricing can be observed if econometricians estimate betas without accounting for the investors' learning process. The empirical implication for asset-pricing tests is that the...
- White papers 2004-09-01
- Critical Points and Transitions in an Electric Power Transmission Model for Cascading Failure Blackouts
- Section 2 of this paper describes the model for the electric power transmission that is used to study blackouts. The solutions of this model applied to ideal tree networks are discussed in Sect. 3. As the power demand increases, several transition points are identified. The structure of the solutions and...
- White papers 2002-08-09
- Information Aggregation in a Catastrophe Futures Markets
- This paper experimentally examines a reinsurance market in which participants have differing information regarding the probability distribution over losses. The paper discovers, as in past individual choice insurance experiments, that buyers under-assess the probabilities of large loss states, or alternatively, subjects assign larger utility values to losses than to comparable...
- White papers 2004-02-01
- Analysis of US Oil Spill Trends to Develop Scenarios for Contingency Planning
- A method for using past US oil spill data to project potential future vessel spill sizes was demonstrated including methods for taking into account vessel type and local factors (e.g., vessel traffic, navigational hazards, and regulations) and implementation of spill prevention measures e.g., tanker double-hulls). This paper describes a methodology,...
- White papers 2002-11-04
- Statistical Shape Influence in Geodesic Active Contours
- A novel method of incorporating shape information into the image segmentation process is presented. This paper introduces a representation for deformable shapes and defines a probability distribution over the variances of a set of training shapes. The segmentation process embeds an initial curve as the zero level set of a...
- White papers 2000-04-18
- Deriving Market Expectations for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate From Option Prices
- Option prices provide valuable information on market expectations. This paper attempts to extract market expectations, as conveyed by an implied risk-neutral probability distribution, from option prices for the dollar-euro exchange rates. Returns' volatilities are inferred from observed and interpolated option prices. To address robustness, two distributions, one from actual data...
- White papers 2004-10-01
- Allocating Capital by Risk Measures: A Systematic Survey
- In property/casualty insurance, the capital allocated to a line of business is designed to act as a cushion against unexpected losses. In the past, insurers used a fairly straightforward method of providing this cushion: The bigger the line of business in terms of net written premium, the greater the amount...
- White papers 2003-08-01
- Employment and Adverse Selection in Health Insurance
- The authors' construct and test a new model of employer-provided health insurance provision in the presence of adverse selection in the health insurance market. In their model, employers cannot observe the health of their employees, but can decide whether to offer insurance. Employees sort themselves among employers who do and...
- White papers 2006-08-01
- Minitab 15.(NEWS WATCH)
- Minitab 15 Statistical software is Used for statistics education in research and academia, and for companies' data-driven quality improvement programs, including Six Sigma. Key features include the ability to assign formulas to columns in the worksheet, expanded Gage R&R capabilities, probability distribution plotting and enhanced ...
- Research articles 2007-03-01
- Three Media Execs on Why Industry Cannot Innovate
- Over the weekend, I unleashed one of those long rants that sometimes sweep over me when I've been driving in the hot California sun for too long, without access to a creative outlet to let off steam. The result this time was: Why No Disruptive Models Emerge Inside Media. ...
- Blog posts 2009-07-20
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