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- Probability
- the quantitative measure of the likelihood that a given event will occur
- Probability definition on BNET »
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- Estimation of Default Probabilities  Part 3: Stochastic Default Probabilities: Credit Risk
- The article provides a detailed analysis of the approach to estimate firms' default probabilities as it is proposed in the Credit Risk+ portfolio model. It is shown that systematic estimation errors occur in the methodology that also carry over to credit portfolio risk management.
- White papers 2003-01-01
- 10 Things I Wish I Knew Before Going On My First Interview
- This paper explains 10 concrete steps you can take to increase the probability of being invited back for subsequent interviews, or for raising the probability of a formal offer being extended to you. First, be prepared. It can't be emphasized enough the importance of being well prepared for a job...
- White papers 2008-01-01
- Preparation Will Reduce That Pre-Interview Anxiety
- There are several ways to reduce pre-interview anxiety to a manageable level. This paper gives ten concrete steps to present yourself in a confident, assured manner while increasing the probability that you'll be invited back for subsequent interviews, or for raising the probability of a formal offer being extended to...
- White papers 2008-01-01
- New Product Sales Forecast
- This template allows you to forecast sales for a new product. The model uses three possible scenarios and the probability that a scenario may occur as the basis. The probabilities that you assign are quite subjective - based on your view of the future, your level of optimism, and intuition.
- Tools & templates 2007-09-01
- Probability Neglect and Concern in Insurance Decisions With Low Probabilities and High Stakes
- This paper describes the results of a high stakes experiment with real money where subjects indicate how much they would be willing to pay for insurance to protect themselves against the possibility of losing 2,000 DM (about US$1,200) should a low probability event, with either exact or ambiguous probability, occur....
- White papers 2003-04-14
- Optimal Investment Strategy to Minimize the Probability of Lifetime Ruin
- This article studies the problem of how individuals should invest their wealth in a risky financial market to minimize the probability that they outlive their wealth, also known as the probability of lifetime ruin. Specifically, it determines the optimal investment strategy of an individual who targets a given rate of...
- White papers 2004-10-13
- Asymptotics of Ruin Probabilities for Risk Processes Under Optimal Reinsurance Policies: The Large Claim Case
- In a classical risk process reinsurance and investment can be chosen at any time. This paper finds the Lundberg exponent and the Cramer-Lundberg approximation for the ruin probability under the optimal strategy in the case where no exponential moments for the claim size distribution exist. The paper further also shows...
- White papers 2002-11-01
- Computing Conditional Probabilities in Large Domains by Maximizing Renyi's Quadratic Entropy
- This white paper dissertation discusses the methods for efficiently approximating conditional probabilities in large domains by maximizing the entropy of the distribution given a set of constraints. The constraints are constructed from conditional probabilities, typically of low-order, that can be accurately computed from the training data. By appropriately choosing the...
- White papers 2003-06-02
- Basics of Managing Risks
- A risk is something that may happen and if it does, will have an adverse impact on the project. A few points here - "that may happen" implies a probability of less then 100%. If it has a probability of 100% - in other words it will happen - it...
- White papers 2003-06-05
- How Much Leverage Is Too Much, Or Does Corporate Risk Determine The Severity Of A Recession?
- Economic theory suggests that vulnerable financial conditions of the corporate sector can trigger or worsen an economy-wide recession. This paper proposes a measure of corporate vulnerability, the Corporate Vulnerability Index CVI and analyses whether it can explain the probability and severity of recessions. The CVI is constructed as the default...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- An Investigation Of Risk And Probability In A Portfolio Management Context
- The oil and gas industry often makes investment decisions based on expected value numbers. This can be quite misleading, particularly when programs are small and time frames for evaluation are short. Expected value numbers must be tempered with the knowledge of the probabilities of meeting target values on an annual...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- Monte Carlo Simulation - Are Your Boots In The Water?
- Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that uses probabilities of occurrences to generate a range of possible answers to problems. This article talks about an incident that where software companies are touting its benefits and the advisor community is locked in a debate as to the mathematical accuracy of...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- Thinking in Numbers
- Holistic risk management is the brave new frontier of the profession. This approach makes no distinction between traditional hazard risks, financial risks and operating risks, because all are ruled by the essence of risk: there is some probability of each adversely affecting business. The main focus of the article is...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- "Preparation Will Reduce That Pre-Interview Anxiety"
- There are several ways to reduce your pre-interview anxiety to a manageable level. This paper gives 10 tips that will help you present yourself in a confident, assured manner while increasing the probability that you'll be invited back for subsequent interviews, or for raising the probability of a formal offer...
- White papers 2008-01-01
Additional Resources
- RBP Probability Sensitivity Analysis: Changes in Stock Price
- Andy Kern submits: RBP Probability is the implied probability of sustaining performance. In his 2008 white paper, Professor Bjorn Jorgenson of Columbia Business School tested the sensitivity of RBP Probability to some important variables. First, he confirmed the intuition: RBP Probability declines as a) stock prices rise, b)...
- External links 2009-09-27
- The Empirical Relationship Between Average Asset Correlation, Firm Probability Of Default And Asset Size
- The asymptotic single risk factor ASRF approach is a simplified framework for determining regulatory capital charges for credit risk and has become an integral part of how credit risk capital requirements are to be determined under the second Basel Accord. Within this approach, a key regulatory parameter is the average...
- White papers 2002-06-17
- A New Scheme for Real-Time Loop Music Production Based On Granular Similarity and Probability Control
- In this paper, a new concept of real-time loop music production is introduced, along with its implementation in Pd. This scheme tends to improvise loop music based on very limited pattern loop sample materials. Four loops, each divided into 32 grains, work at the same time. Analysis of the spectral...
- White papers 2002-09-16
- Contingent Claim Pricing Using Probability Distortion Operators: Methods From Insurance Risk Pricing and Their Relationship to Financial Theory
- This paper considers the pricing of contingent claims using an approach developed and used in insurance pricing. The approach is of interest and significance because of the increased integration of insurance and financial markets and also because insurance related risks are trading in financial markets as a result of securitization...
- White papers 2001-08-29
- Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs
- Diamond and Dybvig show that while demand-deposit contracts let banks provide liquidity, they expose them to panic-based bank runs. However, the model does not provide tools to derive the probability of the bank-run equilibrium, and thus cannot determine whether banks increase welfare overall. This paper studies a modified model in...
- White papers 2004-08-23
- PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Risk Index Indicates a Decline in Probability of Average Home Price Depreciation
- WALNUT CREEK, Calif. -- PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE:PMI), has released its winter 2005 Risk Index indicating a decrease in the probability of an overall house price decline since the autumn of 2004. PMI's Risk Index represents PMI's view on geographic house-price risk...
- Research articles 2005-02-24
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