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- The Collapse of Wall Street's Investment Banking Model
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Since equity market participants have been busy finding answers to the challenge of unprecedented volatility (VIX), the decision by Goldman Sachs GS and Morgan Stanley MS to seek banking licenses has gone largely unscrutinized. As the official talking points suggest, a change in status will provide "maximum...
- External links 2008-10-19
- Why Did Warren and Hank Invest in Goldman?
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s stated objective in driving the $700 billion bailout package was to counter systemic risk within the US financial system. But rather than employing tax-payer dollars to get on with their business after lowering leverage levels in their balance sheets, the bailout targets appear...
- External links 2008-12-07
- Is the Obama Plan Creating Unfounded Market Optimism?
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Some Washington lawmakers are now talking of a $1 trillion government spending package to kick-start the US economy; last week the figure was closer to $500 billion. But before any stimulus plan can save or create the first job, certain formative developments are likely to reduce the...
- External links 2008-12-07
- Citigroup's Rescue: Hope Is the Essential Ingredient
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Can the government intervention in Citigroup C be termed a bailout in the first place? Yes, but only if, with the passage of time, the following possibilities do not turn into ugly realities: a a serious and rapid deterioration of Citigroup's credit card and consumer lending portfolio...
- External links 2008-12-08
- Ecuador Default: Sell Into Simon Bolivar's South America
- Rakesh Saxena submits: The sovereign debt market is still unable to appreciate the fact that President Rafael Correa's decision to formally default on its foreign obligations on Monday is rooted in ideology, not in any shortage of funds. The ideological premise, that Ecuador's borrowings from international lenders are tainted by...
- External links 2008-12-15
- Goldman Sachs: Perils in the Fine Print
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Moody’s downgraded Goldman Sachs GS on Tuesday. But that long-term rating cut did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm of investors who were buoyed by the fact that Goldman’s fourth-quarter loss of $4.97 a share did not signal an impending disaster see conference call transcript. Quite obviously, the...
- External links 2008-12-17
- ICICI Bank: Bellwether Emerging Market Short
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Noticeably, in its October 2008 Performance Review, ICICI IBN, India’s largest private bank, has not reconciled one key element included in its Credit Suisse CS - sponsored April 2008 analyst presentation: the size and health of India’s middle class. In actual fact, the key “consumption driver” (i.e....
- External links 2008-12-18
- GE Finally Enters the Zone of the Unknown
- Rakesh Saxena submits: On Thursday, Standard & Poor’s said that there is a one-in-three chance that General Electric GE will lose its coveted “AAA” rating in the next two years. But, as far as the debt marketplace is concerned, the “implied” rating for General Electric has been well below “AAA”...
- External links 2008-12-19
- GE's Dilemma: Sensible Business vs. Rating at Any Cost
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Why Standard & Poor’s only lowered the outlook on General Electric GE bonds is anybody’s guess. By all traditional rating measurements, General Electric does not qualify as an “AAA” credit now and, in that respect, S&P provided misleading signals to equity investors. GE’s “stand-alone” bonds are, in...
- External links 2009-01-01
- As Goes GM, So Goes U.S. Government Credit
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Recent statistics show that 64% of the global currency reserves are held in US dollars. But if the Treasury’s latest guidelines on the auto industry bailout process are any guide, the Euro might well become the reserve currency of choice this year; 27% of currency reserves are...
- External links 2009-01-04
- Does Satyam Say it All?
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Citigroup C announced that it had frozen 30 operating accounts in the name of Satyam Computer Services SAY. But Indian securities regulators are asking if anybody at Citi’s Indian unit questioned why Satyam needed so many accounts, whether Pricewaterhouse Coopers (Satyam’s auditor) conducted any spot inspections on...
- External links 2009-01-13
- Israel ETFs and the Gaza Factor
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Nearly a decade ago, a former director of Mossad (Israel’s national intelligence agency) explained to this writer that, despite their “public commitment to wipe out the Jewish State, organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad simply cannot sustain a conflict long enough to damage Israel’s social fabric.” If...
- External links 2009-01-16
- Berkshire Hathaway: Failing Business Model Points to a 35% Decline
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is expected to disclose details on its derivatives portfolio in its annual report due next month. But the issue today is not how Berkshire values outstanding credit default swap and index put contracts. Rather, are such contracts still a significant constituent of Berkshire’s business...
- External links 2009-01-25
- The Real Crisis: Collapsing Capital Accumulation Process
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Private Capital needs to prosper in order to survive. Due to the inability of governments to alleviate widespread poverty, the domestic and global environment which created the compelling process of capital accumulation and profits following the Second World War had reached a peak, within the context of...
- External links 2009-02-09
- General Electric: 'Buy America' Clause Severely Limits Downside Potential
- Rakesh Saxena submits: One of the unintended consequences of the stimulus legislation passed on Friday will be the potential validation of Jeff Immelt's vision of a truly global corporation. Since Congress has made the Buy America provision subject to current trade agreements, General Electric GE may well become a unique...
- External links 2009-02-15
- GE at a Crossroads: Business Model Becoming Obsolete
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Last week, GE GE Money India decided to shut down 50% of its branch network, effectively abandoning lofty plans to aggressively expand its $1.1 billion retail lending portfolio; the company’s management did not disclose data on forecasted loan delinquencies in an environment where huge segments of India’s...
- External links 2008-12-07
- Political Risk Prices Indicating Sharp Fall in Emerging Markets
- Rakesh Saxena submits: The direction of credit default swap spreads is certainly pointing towards further potential downside in emerging market equities. But, more importantly, it is the state of the political risk and trade paper insurance marketplace which is now making a compelling case for another 25%-plus decline in junior...
- External links 2008-11-30
- Are You Paying for Lehman CDS Losses?
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Yet again, the final joke might very well be on the taxpayer. Lost in the market volatility, in the spate of bank rescue announcements and in the slew of earnings reports is the necessity to seek the source of the estimated $8 billion which was due to...
- External links 2008-10-23
- America's Rating Agencies Dropped the Ball Big Time
- Rakesh Saxena submits: Washington lawmakers are now trying to figure out why the rating agencies failed to foresee the broad collapse of credit quality right across the debt spectrum. However, if the lawmakers are serious in their quest for the truth, they need look no further than the main streets...
- External links 2008-10-23
- GE's Rollover Risk Supports Short Trade
- Rakesh Saxena submits: In an analyst conference call on October 10, General Electric’s GE Chief Financial Officer, Keith Sherin, denied any plans to tap the Federal Reserve Bank’s commercial paper facility, unless the market situation became particularly adverse. Yesterday, GE announced that it has registered to be part of the...
- External links 2008-10-24
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