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- Are Negative Yield Money Funds Next?
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: The U.S. policies have driven short-term interest rates to Japan-like levels, creating “free” money for banks, creating a massive carry-trade speculative investment funds flow, financially crippling low and middle income senior citizens who have historically relied on bank deposits to supplement their meager...
- External links 2009-11-20
- U.S. and China: Comparing the G2
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: The United States and China are referred to now as the G2, whose twists and turns dominate world economic dialogue, and perhaps outcomes. They are a study in contrasts economically, politically, demographically, socially, in terms of national balance sheet, GDP growth, government roles in...
- External links 2009-06-19
- S&P 500: Fundamental and Technical Convergence
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: It is interesting to see how close the institutional S&P 500 forecasts for 2009 come to the price level possibilities suggested by the S&P 500 chart. Maybe fundamentals and technicals are converging on an idea, or maybe the institutions use technical indicators more...
- External links 2009-06-19
- Super Simplistic S&P Valuation Gauge
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: Here is one super simplistic, maybe too simplistic, but certainly quick and dirty way to guess what might be a fair value of the S&P 500 index in the near future. The following chart of 12-month trailing S&P 500 “as reported” earnings...
- External links 2009-06-16
- S&P 500 Valuation with Normalized Earnings
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: There are many institutional S&P 500 forecasts in the media for 2009, generally ranging from 850 to 1100 with some outliers on each side, but seldom is the underlying detail provided. One of the more common methods of estimation involves normalization of earnings...
- External links 2009-06-15
- S&P 500 Internals, Then and Now
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: The S&P 500 index (proxy [[SPY]] and [[IVV]]) is in much better shape now than on March 6 (the low so far, and maybe the low). However, not all lights are flashing green yet. First at the macro level, SPY shows...
- External links 2009-05-22
- S&P 500 Rolling Price Returns, 1926-2009
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: S&P 500 Rolling Price Returns from 1926 This chart presents the 12-month rolling price return of the S&P 500 from January 1926 through April 2009. It also shows the 3-year, 10-year and 83-year averages of the 12-month rolling price return. The...
- External links 2009-05-08
- S&P 500: From 370 to 3700 in 2012. What?!
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: Predictions are very difficult -- particularly when they are about the future. Financial projections are about the future and they are difficult. They are prone to wide errors, because all the base numbers and growth rates are selected and subject to judgment...
- External links 2009-05-07
- Relating S&P 500 Price Levels to GDP Growth Rates
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: Based on US and world nominal GDP growth rates from 1981 through 2008, we make a case for the likely price of the S&P 500 between 650 and 800. The Facts: by Richard Shaw
- External links 2009-04-24
- S&P 500 in Correction Mode
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: The S&P 500 is moving down lately. Let’s look at some chart perspectives to project possible near-term end points for the price movement. Support, Resistance and Retracement: by Richard Shaw
- External links 2009-06-24
- Trolling for High Quality Equity Income
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: Equity income has the potential to grow. Bond income does not. Investors with an income orientation should have at least some level of equity income to supplement fixed income from bonds to keep up with the cost of living. Inflation is...
- External links 2009-07-14
- U.S. Budget and Debt: History and Projections
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: Amidst all the soundbites and data tidbits about the condition of the U.S. fiscal and debt situation, it may be helpful to look at the data produced by the Congressional Budget Office. While they may be way off, it is a good idea...
- External links 2009-10-25
- S&P 500 Price Change Frequency Distributions
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: This article presents the shape of the price change frequency distribution for the S&P 500 over approximately six decades on a daily basis, monthly basis and calendar year basis. The degree of “normality” of S&P 500 price changes is high on a...
- External links 2009-10-23
- S&P 500: 60 Years of Monthly and Daily Percentage Price Changes
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: These two charts present the monthly and daily percentage price changes in the S&P 500 from January 1950 through the most recent period in 2009, roughly 60 years. After the exceptional experiences of the past year, a long-term look back may be helpful....
- External links 2009-10-21
- Getting a Perspective on Volume for U.S. and China ETFs
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: In our last article, we estimated the probable price range of the S&P 500 based on historical and implied volatility, and suggested that the positive area of the range was more likely than the negative area for the next few weeks, because of the...
- External links 2009-10-16
- Price Volatility: Projecting Ahead
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: The S&P 500 index has an 80% probability of ending 2009 between the low 970’s and 1150 to 1170. Historical volatility for the past three months would suggest 971 to 1151 for 80% probability, while implied volatility in the 3-month CBOE volatility index would...
- External links 2009-10-14
- Does $1,000 Gold Signal Stock Correction?
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: Does gold rising and climbing to $1,000 signal a pending stock correction? No. A correction may occur, but the long-term record does not support the idea that gold rises predict stock declines. The weekly 20-year chart of the S&P 500...
- External links 2009-09-07
- S&P 500 Benchmark for Fundamental Screening
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: As you evaluate individual stocks on a fundamental basis, the following chart may be a useful benchmark. Ideally, you would not purchase individual stocks with the issue selection risks involved, unless the fundamentals are more attractive than the benchmark. You’ve got...
- External links 2009-08-31
- Volatility Approach to SPY for the Next 30 Days
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: There are many ways to attempt to divine the future of the market. They don’t all work, and all of them don’t work at least some of the time. Let’s look at one approach to estimate the probable price range for...
- External links 2009-08-20
- Massive Bank Shareholder Dilution Ahead
- Richard Shaw QVM Group submits: It was the bank reports of good earnings (albeit much of a one-time nature and based on yield spreads that cannot go on forever) that started and continued to fuel this rally. But how valuable are questionable improvements in earnings at the same...
- External links 2009-04-19
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