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- Costco Has All the Right Catalysts in Place
- Ryan Barnes submits: Everyone’s favorite home for 5 lb. cracker bags, 50 rolls of TP, and grab-bag inventory, Costco COST is finally breaking through the $50 level that has plagued shares since the beginning of the March rally. On no less than 5 separate occasions, shares of this low-beta name...
- External links 2009-08-28
- Caterpillar: Does It Deserve the Goldman Downgrade?
- Ryan Barnes submits: Goldman has gone from from permabull (remember the $200 oil “super-spike” call from May?) to permabear in less than one year’s time. Earlier this year the call was for an average spot price for crude to be somewhere between $110 and $120 through 2011, while today the...
- External links 2008-12-14
- Costco: Earnings Show Selective Weakness
- Ryan Barnes submits: Costco Wholesale COST reported fiscal ‘09 Q1 earnings yesterday morning, and largely confirmed the sales trends noted along with the retailer’s Nov. sales issuance last week. From Thursday's report: Q1 net sales up 4%, 1% on a comparable basisBoilerplate comps...
- External links 2008-12-12
- Las Vegas Sands: Sustainability Thesis Looking Better?
- Ryan Barnes submits: On Thursday, we officially passed the one-month mark since Las Vegas Sands LVS announced its utterly dilutive stock and warrant offering in an attempt to stave off bankruptcy. Considering the size of the deal and the audacity associated with bypassing the shareholders’ ability to have a say...
- External links 2008-12-12
- Electronic Arts: Sell-Siders Flee on Lowered 2009 Guidance
- Ryan Barnes submits: I should put it out there that I’m not a contrarian by nature. Sometimes I agree with what the ole’ herd has to say. It just so happens that lately, the sell-side community has been slicing the ball so severely that “zigging when they zag” seems the...
- External links 2008-12-11
- FedEx and Texas Instruments: Two Warnings with Two Very Different Results
- Ryan Barnes submits: It’s just been raining guidance the past few days. Some companies are dropping it altogether, a few are reaffirming prior cuts, and many more are taking an axe to Q4 and 2009 estimates. Two particularly noteworthy guidance changes came out after the bell Monday, as FedEx FDX...
- External links 2008-12-10
- Potash Corp. Announces 2009 Production Cuts; Will Pricing Hold?
- Ryan Barnes submits: Potash Corp. came out late yesterday and joined the likes of Mosaic MOS and Uralkali in cutting production of its chief product, as the company will reduce 2009 potash output by roughly 20%, beginning in January. CEO Bill Doyle sees demand as only temporarily weak, noting a...
- External links 2008-12-10
- NYSE Euronext: M&A Interest Only Serving to Boost Valuations
- Ryan Barnes submits: The M&A rumor mill has been in full effect over the past 48 hours (ah, the memories…) over the prospects for a merger between Deutsche Boerse AG and NYSE Euronext NYX, first reported by German magazine Der Spiegel. The official response from Deutsche Boerse, thus far, is...
- External links 2008-12-08
- Costco: November Sales Down as Gas Prices Plummet
- Ryan Barnes submits: Warehouse retailer Costco Corporation COST reported sales and comparables for November and the past 13 weeks on Thursday morning, as this economy continues to prove that even the best fighters will take body shots. Costco reported that total sales for November were down 3% (year-over-year) to $5.55...
- External links 2008-12-05
- Valero Energy: Bidders Vanish, Pulls Two Refineries from Market
- Ryan Barnes submits: For several years Valero Energy Corp. VLO has been trying to divest its non-core refining assets, and early bidding action for refineries was fierce and global when it began in early 2007. Valero sold its Lima refinery for $1.9 billion, turning a tidy profit and creating a...
- External links 2008-12-04
- Freeport-McMoRan: Suspends Dividend, Slashes Targets
- Ryan Barnes submits: Copper, gold, and molybdenum producer Freeport-McMoRan FCX has released a cast iron, kitchen sink of a statement this morning, announcing the suspension of the $2/share annual dividend and a 50% cut in 2009 capital expenditures, along with volume cuts for copper and moly covering the next two...
- External links 2008-12-03
- NVIDIA: Standing Tall in Semiconductor Purgatory
- Ryan Barnes submits: There’s been no shortage of news and activity surrounding NVIDIA NVDA, lately. On one hand, the graphics chipmaker has been getting some love in the form of CNBC plugs and the occasional “hey check these guys out” mention. The increased name-dropping is warranted considering that shares have...
- External links 2008-12-17
- Portfolio Reshuffle: Freeport's Out, Some Pharma's Next
- Ryan Barnes submits: The next few trading sessions will constitute what is, for me, a rash of trading as I adjust the allocations within the Secular Trends Portfolio. For readers who have been wondering why it’s been so quiet around here, I offer my apologies for not being able to...
- External links 2009-06-13
- Time to Trim Petrobras, Caterpillar Holdings
- Ryan Barnes submits: There hasn’t been a lot of activity here for a couple of weeks, the unfortunate result of other obligations and my ongoing intent to put in 5-6 hours of good reading and research time for every hour spent writing up my conclusions. But hey, if it’s not...
- External links 2009-08-11
- A Look at Caterpillar's Blowout Quarter
- Ryan Barnes submits: The Secular Trends Portfolio gobbled up a few more scraps of alpha Tuesday as largest holding Caterpillar CAT breezed past consensus estimates for $.22 per share in Q2. Net profit (that’s right folks, net) came in at $.60/sh, or $371 million. Ex-out the one-time restructuring costs and...
- External links 2009-07-22
- Check Point, IBM: Finding Safety and Opportunity in Tech
- Ryan Barnes submits: Cash No Good... Following the recent sales of Pfizer PFE, Schering SGP, and Freeport FCX in the Secular Trends Portfolio (the links will take you to my coverage of all 3), the cash position in the Secular Trends Model has shot up to 15%. This...
- External links 2009-07-12
- Amgen May Have a Winner on Its Hands
- Ryan Barnes submits: Shares of Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) are soaring following the news that a Phase III trial of the company’s Denosumab drug for osteoporosis showed superior effects in treating adverse bone reactions in patients with advanced forms of breast cancer. In the trial summary data released after Tuesday’s close,...
- External links 2009-07-09
- Service Sector Report: A Mixed Bag of Sentiment
- Ryan Barnes submits: I suppose every analyst has their favorite economic indicators, whether due to the specific sectors they follow or their slant towards bottoms-up or top-down analysis. To the latter, I try to as much of both as my resources allow, and to the former, I am a big...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Why I'm Upping Corning and Beckman Coulter Stakes
- Ryan Barnes submits: This post is chiefly for time-stamping purposes; I’ll be attaching my notes and thesis statement for Beckman Coulter BEC at a later date. As to Corning GLW, this has been a small weighting in the model thus far, and I’m taking it up to 4.5% with the...
- External links 2009-07-05
- Why I'm Shifting Portfolio Sector Weightings
- Ryan Barnes submits: This morning there’s going to be some big changes to the Secular Trends Portfolio; as stated earlier there’s far too much cash sitting around. There are several themes that deserve representation, and a few sectors where the level of underweight (compared to the S&P 500) is more...
- External links 2009-07-01
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