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BNET Business Dictionary
- Scenario
- a possible future state of affairs or sequence of events. Scenarios are imagined or projected on the basis of current circumstances and trends and expectations of change in the future.
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- The Joys of Being (Occasionally) Wrong
- Most people hate being wrong. It might be an obvious truth, but sometimes it's these commonsense ideas, these truths that seem so self-evident that we accept them without question, which turn out to be holding us back. Seth Godin, author of best-selling marketing books "Small is the...
- Blog posts 2007-10-19
- Towards Agent-Based Scenario Development For Strategic Decision Support
- Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most un-certain and important driving forces affecting that future. However, most scenarios, being mostly stories, lack validation, dynamism and fail to acknowledge all relations between actors, activities and resources. This paper proposes...
- White papers 2006-03-09
- How Role Playing Can Help With Team Building
- Role-playing scenarios can go wrong and an otherwise usefull scenario can end up becoming an awkward skit. Even worse, a badly executed role-play activity could actually be damaging to the confidence of the staff. One of the major reasons why role-plays don't work out is because of the spirit or...
- White papers 2009-01-01
- What Is Scenario Planning And Is It Useful For Small Businesses?
- Scenario planning is a forecasting tool that helps managers and organizations better understand the trends driving the future competitive environment. The first step in scenario planning is developing scenarios. These are not predictions. Instead, they are plausible and often provocative stories about how a series of trends could come together,...
- White papers 2009-08-10
- Assurant, Inc. Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript
- Question-and-Answer Session Operator Operator Instructions Your first question comes from Jeffrey Schuman – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Jeffrey Schuman – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods I had a question about specialty property, I was curious about the placement rate sequentially. Subprime placement rates continued to increase whereas...
- Earnings calls 2009-10-29
- Why Forecasts Don't Work in Finance
- "Finance is an area that's dominated by rare events. The tools we have in quantitative finance do not work in what I call the 'Black Swan' domain," said author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb earlier this year. Events in the financial...
- Blog posts 2008-09-16
- Niall Ferguson's Worst and Best Scenarios for America's Future
- Is America headed for a great depression similar to what began in 1929? Or has it already begun to put the recession in its rear view mirror and is to soon resume its roll as global policeman? For Niall Ferguson, one is the worst-case scenario, the...
- Blog posts 2009-07-01
- The Deutsch-Lowe Deal Worst-Case Scenario
- Interpublic ignored my advice of a couple of days ago and merged Deutsch and Lowe into a single global agency. Management is supposed to consider the worst-case scenario in mergers before they happen, and IPG CEO Michael Roth gave a nod to that in Adweek. So let's examine the path...
- Blog posts 2009-10-16
- 3 Scenarios for This Market: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
- Roman Dutkewych submits: This article offers an analysis of the Dow Jones Industrials to get a sense of where the current market conditions stand in an historical context, as well as to help get an idea of what type of resolution we might expect out of the recent crisis. I...
- External links 2008-11-03
- Software Project Management: Scenarios Of Failure And Potential Solutions
- This paper provides the Project Manager PM with three (3) scenarios for examining project failure. For each scenario a decision tree is provided. By asking questions about the task, the PM can determine points of failure, and potential remedies. This is intended to be a learning tool and should affect...
- White papers 2004-02-12
- Robust Solutions And Risk Measures For A Supply Chain Planning Problem
- This paper explains a strategic supply chain planning problem formulated as a two-stage Stochastic Integer Programming SIP model. The strategic decisions include site locations, choices of production, packing and distribution lines, and the capacity increment or decrement policies. The SIP model provides a practical representation of real world discrete resource...
- White papers 2006-08-01
- Pricing-to-Market: Price Discrimination or Product Differentiation?
- This paper examines the extent to which a false detection of Pricing-To-Market pseudo PTM arises from the use of unit value data. To do so, the authors analyze two scenarios. Both scenarios involve a monopolist located in the home country producing a low- and high-quality variety of a good. In...
- White papers 2005-11-02
- The Difficulties of Thinking Ahead
- Doing scenario planning requires some scenario planning of its own. Article explains that scenario planning is useful not for predicting the future but for helping companies become more aware of possible outcomes and just as awareness means nothing unless it is acted upon, even the best scenario planning...
- White papers 2002-02-05
- The Need for Scenario Planning in Interactive Marketing
- With the Internet creating so much potential discontinuity, the only certainty is that whichever trends emerge will be surprising. Traditional strategic planning techniques won't help because traditional strategic planning concentrates on predicting the future by identifying certainties. The paper explains that web-focused scenario planning allows us to discover and track...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- Scenario Planning
- Traditional forecasting techniques often fail to predict significant changes in the firm's external environment, especially when the change is rapid and turbulent or when information is limited. Consequently, important opportunities and serious threats may be overlooked and the very survival of the firm may be at stake. Scenario planning is...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- The External Environment
- The external analysis of a firm enables the firm to obtain a clear picture of the threats and opportunities prevalent in the firm's external environment. Having done this, the firm can devise suitable strategies to exploit the opportunities and negate the threats. External analysis consists of studying the components of...
- Presentations 2003-01-01
- Capital Consumption: An Alternative Methodology for Pricing Reinsurance
- This paper introduces a capital consumption methodology for the price evaluation of reinsurance in a stochastic environment. It differs from the common practice of risk-based capital allocation and release by: i evaluating the actual contract cash flows at the scenario level; ii eliminating the need for contract-level supporting capital allocation...
- White papers 2003-07-01
- Automated Determination of Worst-case Design Scenarios
- This paper describes readily available techniques for automating the search for worst-case (e.g., "hot case", "cold case") design scenarios using only modest computational resources. These methods not only streamline a repetitive yet crucial task, they usually produce better results. The problems with prior approaches are summarized, and then the improvements...
- White papers 2003-04-14
- Quantifying Insurance Terrorism Risk
- This paper addresses the challenge of quantifying terrorism risk. The classic definition of risk is that it is a product of hazard and vulnerability. The second factor deals with the loss inflicted if a specific terrorist scenario were to occur. Such a scenario might involve the crash of a plane...
- White papers 2002-02-01
- "Export Experience" Under Borrowing Constraints
- The paper develops a two-period, two-country, multigood model with endogenous investment. Borrowing is subject to quantitative restrictions. The authors examine the effect of promoting exports in period 1 on the level of exports in period 2. They consider a number of scenarios depending on how the initial values of the...
- White papers 2004-10-15
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