a possible future state of affairs or sequence of events. Scenarios are imagined or projected on the basis of current circumstances and trends and expectations...
Most people hate being wrong. It might be an obvious truth, but sometimes it's these commonsense ideas, these truths that seem so self-evident that we accept them without question, which turn out to be holding us back. Seth Godin, author of best-selling marketing books "Small is the...
This paper explains a strategic supply chain planning problem formulated as a two-stage Stochastic Integer Programming SIP model. The strategic decisions include site locations, choices of production, packing and distribution lines, and the capacity increment or decrement policies. The SIP model provides a practical representation of real world discrete resource...
The idea of automating e-commerce transactions attracted a lot of interest during the last years. Multi-agent systems are claimed to be one of promising software technologies for achieving this goal. This paper summarizes state-of-the-art in rule-based approaches to automated negotiations and present initial experimental results with the own implementation of...
Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most un-certain and important driving forces affecting that future. However, most scenarios, being mostly stories, lack validation, dynamism and fail to acknowledge all relations between actors, activities and resources. This paper proposes...
This paper examines the extent to which a false detection of Pricing-To-Market pseudo PTM arises from the use of unit value data. To do so, the authors analyze two scenarios. Both scenarios involve a monopolist located in the home country producing a low- and high-quality variety of a good. In...
The paper develops a two-period, two-country, multigood model with endogenous investment. Borrowing is subject to quantitative restrictions. The authors examine the effect of promoting exports in period 1 on the level of exports in period 2. They consider a number of scenarios depending on how the initial values of the...
This paper provides the Project Manager PM with three (3) scenarios for examining project failure. For each scenario a decision tree is provided. By asking questions about the task, the PM can determine points of failure, and potential remedies. This is intended to be a learning tool and should affect...
Fiduciary liability insurance covers pension fund trustees and retirement plan sponsors' directors and officers for claims asserting violations of fiduciary duty under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act ERISA. Monitoring the fiduciary liability insurance market is like watching a rerun of a bad movie. In the wake of the corporate...
This paper introduces a capital consumption methodology for the price evaluation of reinsurance in a stochastic environment. It differs from the common practice of risk-based capital allocation and release by: i evaluating the actual contract cash flows at the scenario level; ii eliminating the need for contract-level supporting capital allocation...
This paper presents the findings of an ongoing research study into offshore information technology and systems outsourcing. Fieldwork was conducted in India and the United Kingdom to identify different strategies and scenarios. Based on the premise that offshore outsourcing poses greater risks than using suppliers from the home country, the...
This webcast talks on the Best Practices for Financial Compliance, Transparency, and Accountability. The webcast follows a question-answer and feedback session. The present scenario tells that Sarbanes-Oxley is on agenda for every publicly traded company and those wishing to be public. With this issue comes the perspective of risk-management. The...
This paper describes readily available techniques for automating the search for worst-case (e.g., "hot case", "cold case") design scenarios using only modest computational resources. These methods not only streamline a repetitive yet crucial task, they usually produce better results. The problems with prior approaches are summarized, and then the improvements...
One of the most powerful tools to help facility planners contribute to the decision-making process is scenario-based planning. Because the future is not predictable, scenarios provide a way of articulating and displaying the range of necessary uncertainties that may affect the outcomes of current plans. This paper provides insight into...
With the Internet creating so much potential discontinuity, the only certainty is that whichever trends emerge will be surprising. Traditional strategic planning techniques won’t help because traditional strategic planning concentrates on predicting the future by identifying certainties. The paper explains that web-focused scenario planning allows us to discover and track...
Traditional forecasting techniques often fail to predict significant changes in the firm's external environment, especially when the change is rapid and turbulent or when information is limited. Consequently, important opportunities and serious threats may be overlooked and the very survival of the firm may be at stake. Scenario planning is...
The external environment of a firm consists of the moves and counter moves executed by its competitors. Competitive advantage of the firm is measured by how much more value the firm is able to provide to its customers as compared to its rival firms. In order to gain sustainable competitive...
The external analysis of a firm enables the firm to obtain a clear picture of the threats and opportunities prevalent in the firm’s external environment. Having done this, the firm can devise suitable strategies to exploit the opportunities and negate the threats. External analysis consists of studying the components of...
Real exchange and interest rates may still fluctuate inside the EMU and give rise to changes in competitiveness. This report finds, in contrast to what is generally expected, no convergence in these variables after the introduction of the euro. On the contrary, a divergence is found that is extraordinary when...
Doing scenario planning requires some scenario planning of its own. Article explains that scenario planning is useful not for predicting the future but for helping companies become more aware of possible outcomes and just as awareness means nothing unless it is acted upon, even the best scenario planning...
This paper addresses the challenge of quantifying terrorism risk. The classic definition of risk is that it is a product of hazard and vulnerability. The second factor deals with the loss inflicted if a specific terrorist scenario were to occur. Such a scenario might involve the crash of a plane...
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